WEBVTT Kind: captions Language: en 00:00:00.210 --> 00:00:02.629 align:start position:0% good<00:00:00.840> morning<00:00:01.050> everyone<00:00:01.199> so<00:00:01.560> yeah<00:00:01.979> my<00:00:02.340> name<00:00:02.490> is 00:00:02.629 --> 00:00:02.639 align:start position:0% good morning everyone so yeah my name is 00:00:02.639 --> 00:00:06.320 align:start position:0% good morning everyone so yeah my name is Liz<00:00:02.939> and<00:00:03.770> today<00:00:04.770> alongside<00:00:05.009> my<00:00:05.400> friend<00:00:06.150> and 00:00:06.320 --> 00:00:06.330 align:start position:0% Liz and today alongside my friend and 00:00:06.330 --> 00:00:08.360 align:start position:0% Liz and today alongside my friend and colleague<00:00:06.450> Natalie<00:00:07.170> we're<00:00:08.130> going<00:00:08.250> to<00:00:08.309> be 00:00:08.360 --> 00:00:08.370 align:start position:0% colleague Natalie we're going to be 00:00:08.370 --> 00:00:10.400 align:start position:0% colleague Natalie we're going to be talking<00:00:08.639> about<00:00:08.840> rational<00:00:09.840> decision-making 00:00:10.400 --> 00:00:10.410 align:start position:0% talking about rational decision-making 00:00:10.410 --> 00:00:13.400 align:start position:0% talking about rational decision-making and<00:00:10.710> how<00:00:11.700> we<00:00:11.759> can<00:00:11.940> use<00:00:12.120> it<00:00:12.240> to<00:00:12.269> maximize<00:00:13.139> both 00:00:13.400 --> 00:00:13.410 align:start position:0% and how we can use it to maximize both 00:00:13.410 --> 00:00:16.480 align:start position:0% and how we can use it to maximize both our<00:00:13.620> personal<00:00:13.799> and<00:00:14.309> our<00:00:14.790> collective<00:00:15.570> impact 00:00:16.480 --> 00:00:16.490 align:start position:0% our personal and our collective impact 00:00:16.490 --> 00:00:20.540 align:start position:0% our personal and our collective impact so<00:00:17.490> a<00:00:17.550> bit<00:00:17.670> about<00:00:17.789> me<00:00:19.010> previously<00:00:20.010> I<00:00:20.039> studied 00:00:20.540 --> 00:00:20.550 align:start position:0% so a bit about me previously I studied 00:00:20.550 --> 00:00:24.500 align:start position:0% so a bit about me previously I studied astrophysics<00:00:21.619> and<00:00:22.619> had<00:00:23.160> very<00:00:24.119> lofty 00:00:24.500 --> 00:00:24.510 align:start position:0% astrophysics and had very lofty 00:00:24.510 --> 00:00:27.259 align:start position:0% astrophysics and had very lofty aspirations<00:00:25.170> of<00:00:25.439> being<00:00:25.740> a<00:00:26.160> cosmologists<00:00:27.029> and 00:00:27.259 --> 00:00:27.269 align:start position:0% aspirations of being a cosmologists and 00:00:27.269 --> 00:00:30.259 align:start position:0% aspirations of being a cosmologists and maybe<00:00:27.810> winning<00:00:28.500> a<00:00:28.650> Nobel<00:00:28.949> Prize<00:00:29.279> and<00:00:29.670> all<00:00:29.910> of 00:00:30.259 --> 00:00:30.269 align:start position:0% maybe winning a Nobel Prize and all of 00:00:30.269 --> 00:00:31.780 align:start position:0% maybe winning a Nobel Prize and all of that<00:00:30.390> wonderful<00:00:30.539> stuff 00:00:31.780 --> 00:00:31.790 align:start position:0% that wonderful stuff 00:00:31.790 --> 00:00:37.250 align:start position:0% that wonderful stuff however<00:00:32.960> after<00:00:33.960> graduation<00:00:34.320> I<00:00:34.739> had<00:00:35.780> a<00:00:36.780> fair 00:00:37.250 --> 00:00:37.260 align:start position:0% however after graduation I had a fair 00:00:37.260 --> 00:00:38.840 align:start position:0% however after graduation I had a fair bit<00:00:37.380> of<00:00:37.410> student<00:00:37.800> debt<00:00:37.980> that<00:00:38.280> I<00:00:38.370> needed<00:00:38.610> to<00:00:38.670> pay 00:00:38.840 --> 00:00:38.850 align:start position:0% bit of student debt that I needed to pay 00:00:38.850 --> 00:00:41.150 align:start position:0% bit of student debt that I needed to pay off<00:00:38.879> and<00:00:39.379> before<00:00:40.379> I<00:00:40.530> knew<00:00:40.680> it<00:00:40.710> I<00:00:40.829> was<00:00:40.890> somehow 00:00:41.150 --> 00:00:41.160 align:start position:0% off and before I knew it I was somehow 00:00:41.160 --> 00:00:43.729 align:start position:0% off and before I knew it I was somehow on<00:00:41.370> some<00:00:41.579> reality<00:00:41.760> TV<00:00:42.420> show<00:00:42.660> that<00:00:43.170> took<00:00:43.469> five 00:00:43.729 --> 00:00:43.739 align:start position:0% on some reality TV show that took five 00:00:43.739 --> 00:00:46.069 align:start position:0% on some reality TV show that took five complete<00:00:44.700> poker<00:00:45.000> beginners<00:00:45.450> and<00:00:45.660> taught<00:00:45.930> them 00:00:46.069 --> 00:00:46.079 align:start position:0% complete poker beginners and taught them 00:00:46.079 --> 00:00:49.970 align:start position:0% complete poker beginners and taught them how<00:00:46.110> to<00:00:46.320> play<00:00:46.879> and<00:00:47.879> then<00:00:48.030> before<00:00:48.149> I<00:00:48.300> knew<00:00:48.570> it<00:00:48.980> I 00:00:49.970 --> 00:00:49.980 align:start position:0% how to play and then before I knew it I 00:00:49.980 --> 00:00:53.840 align:start position:0% how to play and then before I knew it I was<00:00:50.820> playing<00:00:51.270> poker<00:00:51.390> full<00:00:52.020> time<00:00:52.320> and<00:00:52.850> physics 00:00:53.840 --> 00:00:53.850 align:start position:0% was playing poker full time and physics 00:00:53.850 --> 00:00:55.400 align:start position:0% was playing poker full time and physics kept<00:00:54.300> intending<00:00:54.690> to<00:00:54.719> go<00:00:54.899> back<00:00:55.050> to<00:00:55.170> it<00:00:55.260> but 00:00:55.400 --> 00:00:55.410 align:start position:0% kept intending to go back to it but 00:00:55.410 --> 00:00:57.979 align:start position:0% kept intending to go back to it but never<00:00:55.590> quite<00:00:55.800> did<00:00:56.300> and<00:00:57.300> so<00:00:57.690> instead<00:00:57.930> of 00:00:57.979 --> 00:00:57.989 align:start position:0% never quite did and so instead of 00:00:57.989 --> 00:01:01.310 align:start position:0% never quite did and so instead of looking<00:00:58.350> at<00:00:58.590> the<00:00:58.710> Stars<00:00:58.980> this<00:00:59.550> is<00:00:59.850> usually<00:01:00.320> the 00:01:01.310 --> 00:01:01.320 align:start position:0% looking at the Stars this is usually the 00:01:01.320 --> 00:01:03.740 align:start position:0% looking at the Stars this is usually the Stars<00:01:01.590> that<00:01:01.800> I<00:01:01.829> look<00:01:02.100> at<00:01:02.280> this<00:01:03.120> is<00:01:03.270> a<00:01:03.300> classic 00:01:03.740 --> 00:01:03.750 align:start position:0% Stars that I look at this is a classic 00:01:03.750 --> 00:01:05.899 align:start position:0% Stars that I look at this is a classic scene<00:01:04.080> of<00:01:04.350> an<00:01:05.159> international<00:01:05.729> poker 00:01:05.899 --> 00:01:05.909 align:start position:0% scene of an international poker 00:01:05.909 --> 00:01:08.840 align:start position:0% scene of an international poker tournament<00:01:07.070> hundreds<00:01:08.070> sometimes<00:01:08.640> even 00:01:08.840 --> 00:01:08.850 align:start position:0% tournament hundreds sometimes even 00:01:08.850 --> 00:01:12.590 align:start position:0% tournament hundreds sometimes even thousands<00:01:09.299> of<00:01:09.360> people<00:01:09.659> in<00:01:09.720> a<00:01:09.810> room<00:01:11.270> not<00:01:12.270> making 00:01:12.590 --> 00:01:12.600 align:start position:0% thousands of people in a room not making 00:01:12.600 --> 00:01:13.910 align:start position:0% thousands of people in a room not making as<00:01:12.750> much<00:01:12.869> noise<00:01:12.960> as<00:01:13.229> you<00:01:13.290> think<00:01:13.470> it's<00:01:13.590> all<00:01:13.799> this 00:01:13.910 --> 00:01:13.920 align:start position:0% as much noise as you think it's all this 00:01:13.920 --> 00:01:15.469 align:start position:0% as much noise as you think it's all this weird<00:01:14.130> sound<00:01:14.400> of<00:01:14.610> chips<00:01:14.880> if<00:01:15.090> anyone's<00:01:15.420> ever 00:01:15.469 --> 00:01:15.479 align:start position:0% weird sound of chips if anyone's ever 00:01:15.479 --> 00:01:16.550 align:start position:0% weird sound of chips if anyone's ever played<00:01:15.750> a<00:01:15.780> tournament<00:01:16.140> you'll<00:01:16.320> know<00:01:16.439> what 00:01:16.550 --> 00:01:16.560 align:start position:0% played a tournament you'll know what 00:01:16.560 --> 00:01:18.890 align:start position:0% played a tournament you'll know what it's<00:01:16.710> like<00:01:16.770> but<00:01:17.729> nonetheless<00:01:18.060> it's<00:01:18.570> been<00:01:18.780> an 00:01:18.890 --> 00:01:18.900 align:start position:0% it's like but nonetheless it's been an 00:01:18.900 --> 00:01:22.130 align:start position:0% it's like but nonetheless it's been an incredibly<00:01:19.470> fun<00:01:19.770> and<00:01:20.040> fulfilling<00:01:20.549> career<00:01:21.140> and 00:01:22.130 --> 00:01:22.140 align:start position:0% incredibly fun and fulfilling career and 00:01:22.140 --> 00:01:23.899 align:start position:0% incredibly fun and fulfilling career and things<00:01:22.799> have<00:01:22.920> gone<00:01:23.040> far<00:01:23.280> better<00:01:23.490> than<00:01:23.640> I<00:01:23.759> could 00:01:23.899 --> 00:01:23.909 align:start position:0% things have gone far better than I could 00:01:23.909 --> 00:01:25.160 align:start position:0% things have gone far better than I could ever<00:01:23.939> have<00:01:24.240> dreamed<00:01:24.540> I've<00:01:24.689> won<00:01:24.810> a<00:01:24.840> couple<00:01:24.930> of 00:01:25.160 --> 00:01:25.170 align:start position:0% ever have dreamed I've won a couple of 00:01:25.170 --> 00:01:27.410 align:start position:0% ever have dreamed I've won a couple of international<00:01:26.100> titles<00:01:26.490> I've<00:01:26.759> been<00:01:26.909> extremely 00:01:27.410 --> 00:01:27.420 align:start position:0% international titles I've been extremely 00:01:27.420 --> 00:01:31.310 align:start position:0% international titles I've been extremely fortunate<00:01:28.020> and<00:01:28.820> off<00:01:29.820> the<00:01:29.939> back<00:01:30.090> of<00:01:30.119> that<00:01:30.320> what 00:01:31.310 --> 00:01:31.320 align:start position:0% fortunate and off the back of that what 00:01:31.320 --> 00:01:32.359 align:start position:0% fortunate and off the back of that what it's<00:01:31.439> led<00:01:31.619> to<00:01:31.650> is<00:01:31.950> that<00:01:32.070> I've<00:01:32.189> become 00:01:32.359 --> 00:01:32.369 align:start position:0% it's led to is that I've become 00:01:32.369 --> 00:01:35.380 align:start position:0% it's led to is that I've become generally<00:01:32.880> fascinated<00:01:33.720> with<00:01:33.930> this<00:01:34.079> sort<00:01:34.259> of 00:01:35.380 --> 00:01:35.390 align:start position:0% generally fascinated with this sort of 00:01:35.390 --> 00:01:37.850 align:start position:0% generally fascinated with this sort of application<00:01:36.390> of<00:01:36.630> Poker<00:01:37.259> thinking<00:01:37.680> and 00:01:37.850 --> 00:01:37.860 align:start position:0% application of Poker thinking and 00:01:37.860 --> 00:01:39.920 align:start position:0% application of Poker thinking and scientific<00:01:38.340> thinking<00:01:38.700> to<00:01:38.880> our<00:01:39.180> daily<00:01:39.689> lives 00:01:39.920 --> 00:01:39.930 align:start position:0% scientific thinking to our daily lives 00:01:39.930 --> 00:01:41.780 align:start position:0% scientific thinking to our daily lives and<00:01:40.290> how<00:01:40.380> you<00:01:40.470> can<00:01:40.619> use<00:01:40.650> use<00:01:41.430> this<00:01:41.610> type<00:01:41.759> of 00:01:41.780 --> 00:01:41.790 align:start position:0% and how you can use use this type of 00:01:41.790 --> 00:01:44.990 align:start position:0% and how you can use use this type of thinking<00:01:42.060> to<00:01:42.329> optimize<00:01:42.780> them<00:01:43.100> because<00:01:44.100> like 00:01:44.990 --> 00:01:45.000 align:start position:0% thinking to optimize them because like 00:01:45.000 --> 00:01:49.700 align:start position:0% thinking to optimize them because like life<00:01:45.770> poker<00:01:46.770> is<00:01:47.210> also<00:01:48.210> a<00:01:48.509> game<00:01:48.869> of<00:01:49.049> skill<00:01:49.409> and 00:01:49.700 --> 00:01:49.710 align:start position:0% life poker is also a game of skill and 00:01:49.710 --> 00:01:52.249 align:start position:0% life poker is also a game of skill and luck<00:01:50.149> obviously<00:01:51.149> the<00:01:51.240> luck<00:01:51.420> part<00:01:51.659> comes<00:01:51.960> from 00:01:52.249 --> 00:01:52.259 align:start position:0% luck obviously the luck part comes from 00:01:52.259 --> 00:01:54.289 align:start position:0% luck obviously the luck part comes from the<00:01:52.560> cards<00:01:52.920> that<00:01:53.009> you<00:01:53.130> get<00:01:53.310> dealt<00:01:53.610> there's<00:01:54.210> not 00:01:54.289 --> 00:01:54.299 align:start position:0% the cards that you get dealt there's not 00:01:54.299 --> 00:01:55.249 align:start position:0% the cards that you get dealt there's not much<00:01:54.450> you<00:01:54.479> can<00:01:54.689> do<00:01:54.780> about<00:01:54.810> that 00:01:55.249 --> 00:01:55.259 align:start position:0% much you can do about that 00:01:55.259 --> 00:01:58.819 align:start position:0% much you can do about that and<00:01:55.530> then<00:01:56.430> the<00:01:56.670> skill<00:01:57.000> part<00:01:57.270> is<00:01:57.600> about<00:01:58.530> what 00:01:58.819 --> 00:01:58.829 align:start position:0% and then the skill part is about what 00:01:58.829 --> 00:02:00.590 align:start position:0% and then the skill part is about what you<00:01:58.979> choose<00:01:59.250> to<00:01:59.310> do<00:01:59.610> with<00:01:59.759> them<00:01:59.850> the<00:02:00.090> the 00:02:00.590 --> 00:02:00.600 align:start position:0% you choose to do with them the the 00:02:00.600 --> 00:02:02.030 align:start position:0% you choose to do with them the the decisions<00:02:01.110> that<00:02:01.350> you<00:02:01.439> make<00:02:01.649> and<00:02:01.890> that's 00:02:02.030 --> 00:02:02.040 align:start position:0% decisions that you make and that's 00:02:02.040 --> 00:02:03.550 align:start position:0% decisions that you make and that's obviously<00:02:02.460> the<00:02:02.520> interesting<00:02:03.119> part<00:02:03.360> because 00:02:03.550 --> 00:02:03.560 align:start position:0% obviously the interesting part because 00:02:03.560 --> 00:02:06.350 align:start position:0% obviously the interesting part because poker<00:02:04.560> has<00:02:04.740> so<00:02:05.159> many<00:02:05.369> rational<00:02:05.729> thinking 00:02:06.350 --> 00:02:06.360 align:start position:0% poker has so many rational thinking 00:02:06.360 --> 00:02:08.630 align:start position:0% poker has so many rational thinking skills<00:02:06.780> that<00:02:07.140> you<00:02:07.590> can<00:02:07.799> use<00:02:08.009> and<00:02:08.280> apply<00:02:08.520> to 00:02:08.630 --> 00:02:08.640 align:start position:0% skills that you can use and apply to 00:02:08.640 --> 00:02:10.279 align:start position:0% skills that you can use and apply to everyday<00:02:09.030> life<00:02:09.270> and<00:02:09.479> that's<00:02:09.629> a<00:02:09.869> little<00:02:10.140> bit 00:02:10.279 --> 00:02:10.289 align:start position:0% everyday life and that's a little bit 00:02:10.289 --> 00:02:13.610 align:start position:0% everyday life and that's a little bit what<00:02:10.379> I'm<00:02:10.470> going<00:02:10.590> to<00:02:10.619> talk<00:02:10.709> about<00:02:10.860> now 00:02:13.610 --> 00:02:13.620 align:start position:0% 00:02:13.620 --> 00:02:17.180 align:start position:0% that's<00:02:13.860> me<00:02:14.010> doing<00:02:14.160> my<00:02:14.340> thing<00:02:14.550> there<00:02:15.269> I<00:02:15.300> am<00:02:16.190> so 00:02:17.180 --> 00:02:17.190 align:start position:0% that's me doing my thing there I am so 00:02:17.190 --> 00:02:21.350 align:start position:0% that's me doing my thing there I am so the<00:02:17.280> first<00:02:17.489> of<00:02:17.580> these<00:02:17.700> is<00:02:18.170> nuanced<00:02:20.360> pokers 00:02:21.350 --> 00:02:21.360 align:start position:0% the first of these is nuanced pokers 00:02:21.360 --> 00:02:24.259 align:start position:0% the first of these is nuanced pokers about<00:02:21.540> sort<00:02:21.720> of<00:02:21.750> making<00:02:22.220> predictions<00:02:23.269> under 00:02:24.259 --> 00:02:24.269 align:start position:0% about sort of making predictions under 00:02:24.269 --> 00:02:25.309 align:start position:0% about sort of making predictions under the<00:02:24.360> face<00:02:24.510> of<00:02:24.629> an<00:02:24.690> immense<00:02:24.959> amount<00:02:25.230> of 00:02:25.309 --> 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so<00:02:32.220> you<00:02:32.519> really<00:02:32.849> can<00:02:33.150> never<00:02:33.360> be<00:02:33.810> certain<00:02:34.379> about 00:02:34.580 --> 00:02:34.590 align:start position:0% so you really can never be certain about 00:02:34.590 --> 00:02:36.740 align:start position:0% so you really can never be certain about anything<00:02:34.890> and<00:02:35.340> so<00:02:35.670> you<00:02:35.760> have<00:02:35.970> to<00:02:36.090> become<00:02:36.360> very 00:02:36.740 --> 00:02:36.750 align:start position:0% anything and so you have to become very 00:02:36.750 --> 00:02:39.619 align:start position:0% anything and so you have to become very comfortable<00:02:37.080> with<00:02:37.470> that<00:02:37.730> our<00:02:38.730> minds<00:02:39.150> love<00:02:39.450> to 00:02:39.619 --> 00:02:39.629 align:start position:0% comfortable with that our minds love to 00:02:39.629 --> 00:02:41.479 align:start position:0% comfortable with that our minds love to sort<00:02:39.780> of<00:02:39.840> think<00:02:40.080> about<00:02:40.319> things<00:02:40.590> in<00:02:40.830> sort<00:02:41.220> of<00:02:41.280> a 00:02:41.479 --> 00:02:41.489 align:start position:0% sort of think about things in sort of a 00:02:41.489 --> 00:02:44.180 align:start position:0% sort of think about things in sort of a black-and-white<00:02:42.470> absolutist<00:02:43.470> sense<00:02:43.860> but 00:02:44.180 --> 00:02:44.190 align:start position:0% black-and-white absolutist sense but 00:02:44.190 --> 00:02:46.309 align:start position:0% black-and-white absolutist sense but that's<00:02:44.610> really<00:02:44.790> unhelpful<00:02:45.299> because<00:02:45.569> we<00:02:46.110> can 00:02:46.309 --> 00:02:46.319 align:start position:0% that's really unhelpful because we can 00:02:46.319 --> 00:02:47.720 align:start position:0% that's really unhelpful because we can never<00:02:46.500> be<00:02:46.709> certain<00:02:46.920> about<00:02:47.069> anything<00:02:47.340> in<00:02:47.579> life 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--> 00:02:57.680 align:start position:0% comfortable in thinking in grayscale and nuance<00:02:55.910> then<00:02:56.910> you<00:02:57.090> have<00:02:57.209> to<00:02:57.299> get<00:02:57.420> comfortable 00:02:57.680 --> 00:02:57.690 align:start position:0% nuance then you have to get comfortable 00:02:57.690 --> 00:03:00.979 align:start position:0% nuance then you have to get comfortable in<00:02:58.019> thinking<00:02:58.799> in<00:02:59.250> numbers<00:02:59.670> if<00:03:00.480> I'm<00:03:00.690> playing<00:03:00.900> in 00:03:00.979 --> 00:03:00.989 align:start position:0% in thinking in numbers if I'm playing in 00:03:00.989 --> 00:03:03.530 align:start position:0% in thinking in numbers if I'm playing in a<00:03:01.049> big<00:03:01.200> hand<00:03:01.500> I<00:03:02.060> can't<00:03:03.060> just<00:03:03.180> get<00:03:03.239> away<00:03:03.360> with 00:03:03.530 --> 00:03:03.540 align:start position:0% a big hand I can't just get away with 00:03:03.540 --> 00:03:06.680 align:start position:0% a big hand I can't just get away with going<00:03:03.890> there<00:03:04.890> probably<00:03:05.459> bluffing<00:03:05.879> that's 00:03:06.680 --> 00:03:06.690 align:start position:0% going there probably bluffing that's 00:03:06.690 --> 00:03:08.030 align:start position:0% going there probably bluffing that's just<00:03:06.840> gonna<00:03:06.930> lose<00:03:07.110> me<00:03:07.230> a<00:03:07.260> ton<00:03:07.680> of<00:03:07.709> money 00:03:08.030 --> 00:03:08.040 align:start position:0% just gonna lose me a ton of money 00:03:08.040 --> 00:03:09.890 align:start position:0% just gonna lose me a ton of money because<00:03:08.730> you<00:03:08.819> have<00:03:09.000> to<00:03:09.150> train<00:03:09.420> yourself<00:03:09.599> to 00:03:09.890 --> 00:03:09.900 align:start position:0% because you have to train yourself to 00:03:09.900 --> 00:03:11.660 align:start position:0% because you have to train yourself to think<00:03:10.230> in<00:03:10.319> probability<00:03:10.829> so<00:03:11.069> usually<00:03:11.400> a<00:03:11.430> poker 00:03:11.660 --> 00:03:11.670 align:start position:0% think in probability so usually a poker 00:03:11.670 --> 00:03:14.479 align:start position:0% think in probability so usually a poker player<00:03:11.819> will<00:03:12.000> be<00:03:12.030> thinking<00:03:12.450> oh<00:03:12.569> I'm<00:03:13.110> 60<00:03:13.890> or<00:03:14.040> 70% 00:03:14.479 --> 00:03:14.489 align:start position:0% player will be thinking oh I'm 60 or 70% 00:03:14.489 --> 00:03:18.410 align:start position:0% player will be thinking oh I'm 60 or 70% confident<00:03:15.269> and<00:03:16.260> this<00:03:17.069> again<00:03:17.819> this<00:03:18.030> this<00:03:18.239> sort 00:03:18.410 --> 00:03:18.420 align:start position:0% confident and this again this this sort 00:03:18.420 --> 00:03:20.539 align:start position:0% confident and this again this this sort of<00:03:18.480> quantification<00:03:18.959> applies<00:03:19.739> to<00:03:19.950> so<00:03:20.280> many 00:03:20.539 --> 00:03:20.549 align:start position:0% of quantification applies to so many 00:03:20.549 --> 00:03:22.370 align:start position:0% of quantification applies to so many things<00:03:20.880> in<00:03:21.060> life<00:03:21.090> where<00:03:21.569> you'll<00:03:22.079> you'll 00:03:22.370 --> 00:03:22.380 align:start position:0% things in life where you'll you'll 00:03:22.380 --> 00:03:23.750 align:start position:0% things in life where you'll you'll become<00:03:22.560> more<00:03:22.799> comfortable<00:03:23.010> in<00:03:23.280> thinking<00:03:23.670> in 00:03:23.750 --> 00:03:23.760 align:start position:0% become more comfortable in thinking in 00:03:23.760 --> 00:03:25.849 align:start position:0% become more comfortable in thinking in terms<00:03:23.790> of<00:03:24.090> like<00:03:24.209> expected<00:03:24.989> value<00:03:25.350> of<00:03:25.530> your 00:03:25.849 --> 00:03:25.859 align:start position:0% terms of like expected value of your 00:03:25.859 --> 00:03:29.809 align:start position:0% terms of like expected value of your decisions<00:03:27.440> and<00:03:28.440> then<00:03:28.680> of<00:03:29.099> course<00:03:29.400> it<00:03:29.549> teaches 00:03:29.809 --> 00:03:29.819 align:start position:0% decisions and then of course it teaches 00:03:29.819 --> 00:03:31.460 align:start position:0% decisions and then of course it teaches you<00:03:29.910> about<00:03:30.120> effectiveness<00:03:30.780> and<00:03:31.019> specifically 00:03:31.460 --> 00:03:31.470 align:start position:0% you about effectiveness and specifically 00:03:31.470 --> 00:03:34.250 align:start position:0% you about effectiveness and specifically cost-effectiveness<00:03:32.280> things<00:03:33.090> like<00:03:33.450> return<00:03:34.109> on 00:03:34.250 --> 00:03:34.260 align:start position:0% cost-effectiveness things like return on 00:03:34.260 --> 00:03:37.129 align:start position:0% cost-effectiveness things like return on investments<00:03:35.040> and<00:03:35.250> hourly<00:03:35.849> rates<00:03:36.209> and<00:03:36.690> so<00:03:36.810> all 00:03:37.129 --> 00:03:37.139 align:start position:0% investments and hourly rates and so all 00:03:37.139 --> 00:03:39.170 align:start position:0% investments and hourly rates and so all of<00:03:37.200> you<00:03:37.349> as<00:03:38.010> entrepreneurs<00:03:38.730> think<00:03:38.940> about<00:03:39.090> this 00:03:39.170 --> 00:03:39.180 align:start position:0% of you as entrepreneurs think about this 00:03:39.180 --> 00:03:39.860 align:start position:0% of you as entrepreneurs think about this stuff<00:03:39.389> a<00:03:39.480> lot 00:03:39.860 --> 00:03:39.870 align:start position:0% stuff a lot 00:03:39.870 --> 00:03:42.110 align:start position:0% stuff a lot anything<00:03:40.829> that's<00:03:40.980> required<00:03:41.280> to<00:03:41.400> basically<00:03:41.760> to 00:03:42.110 --> 00:03:42.120 align:start position:0% anything that's required to basically to 00:03:42.120 --> 00:03:46.339 align:start position:0% anything that's required to basically to be<00:03:42.209> a<00:03:42.239> smart<00:03:42.599> investor<00:03:43.340> and<00:03:44.720> then<00:03:45.720> most 00:03:46.339 --> 00:03:46.349 align:start position:0% be a smart investor and then most 00:03:46.349 --> 00:03:49.089 align:start position:0% be a smart investor and then most importantly<00:03:46.889> of<00:03:47.040> all<00:03:47.480> poker<00:03:48.480> is<00:03:48.660> about 00:03:49.089 --> 00:03:49.099 align:start position:0% importantly of all poker is about 00:03:49.099 --> 00:03:51.589 align:start position:0% importantly of all poker is about objectivity<00:03:50.099> is<00:03:50.340> about<00:03:50.549> finding<00:03:50.970> the 00:03:51.589 --> 00:03:51.599 align:start position:0% objectivity is about finding the 00:03:51.599 --> 00:03:54.530 align:start position:0% objectivity is about finding the objective<00:03:52.260> truth<00:03:52.440> of<00:03:52.739> a<00:03:52.859> situation<00:03:53.269> not<00:03:54.269> what 00:03:54.530 --> 00:03:54.540 align:start position:0% objective truth of a situation not what 00:03:54.540 --> 00:03:57.770 align:start position:0% objective truth of a situation not what you<00:03:54.690> want<00:03:54.989> the<00:03:55.290> truth<00:03:55.530> to<00:03:55.709> be<00:03:55.859> and<00:03:56.269> that's<00:03:57.269> can 00:03:57.770 --> 00:03:57.780 align:start position:0% you want the truth to be and that's can 00:03:57.780 --> 00:03:59.089 align:start position:0% you want the truth to be and that's can be<00:03:57.870> a<00:03:57.900> huge<00:03:58.230> problem<00:03:58.410> because<00:03:58.590> you'll<00:03:58.889> be<00:03:58.950> in 00:03:59.089 --> 00:03:59.099 align:start position:0% be a huge problem because you'll be in 00:03:59.099 --> 00:04:00.500 align:start position:0% be a huge problem because you'll be in situations<00:03:59.340> where<00:03:59.790> you'll<00:03:59.880> have<00:04:00.000> lots<00:04:00.299> of 00:04:00.500 --> 00:04:00.510 align:start position:0% situations where you'll have lots of 00:04:00.510 --> 00:04:02.990 align:start position:0% situations where you'll have lots of money<00:04:00.750> on<00:04:00.930> the<00:04:01.049> line<00:04:01.079> a<00:04:01.260> lot<00:04:01.470> of<00:04:01.590> personal<00:04:02.400> ego 00:04:02.990 --> 00:04:03.000 align:start position:0% money on the line a lot of personal ego 00:04:03.000 --> 00:04:06.050 align:start position:0% money on the line a lot of personal ego at<00:04:03.299> stake<00:04:03.630> and<00:04:03.900> so<00:04:04.410> you<00:04:04.470> can<00:04:04.829> our<00:04:05.639> minds<00:04:06.000> are 00:04:06.050 --> 00:04:06.060 align:start position:0% at stake and so you can our minds are 00:04:06.060 --> 00:04:07.220 align:start position:0% at stake and so you can our minds are incredibly<00:04:06.419> good<00:04:06.569> at<00:04:06.630> coming<00:04:06.959> up<00:04:06.989> with<00:04:07.049> all 00:04:07.220 --> 00:04:07.230 align:start position:0% incredibly good at coming up with all 00:04:07.230 --> 00:04:10.460 align:start position:0% incredibly good at coming up with all the<00:04:07.290> reasons<00:04:07.620> to<00:04:07.919> believe<00:04:08.370> that<00:04:09.049> maybe<00:04:10.049> you 00:04:10.460 --> 00:04:10.470 align:start position:0% the reasons to believe that maybe you 00:04:10.470 --> 00:04:11.750 align:start position:0% the reasons to believe that maybe you desperately<00:04:11.099> want<00:04:11.250> to<00:04:11.280> believe<00:04:11.430> that<00:04:11.579> your 00:04:11.750 --> 00:04:11.760 align:start position:0% desperately want to believe that your 00:04:11.760 --> 00:04:12.979 align:start position:0% desperately want to believe that your opponent<00:04:12.090> is<00:04:12.150> bluffing<00:04:12.359> you'll<00:04:12.630> come<00:04:12.780> up<00:04:12.810> with 00:04:12.979 --> 00:04:12.989 align:start position:0% opponent is bluffing you'll come up with 00:04:12.989 --> 00:04:15.289 align:start position:0% opponent is bluffing you'll come up with all<00:04:13.109> the<00:04:13.200> reasons<00:04:13.470> to<00:04:13.769> confirm<00:04:14.579> that<00:04:14.790> idea<00:04:15.180> and 00:04:15.289 --> 00:04:15.299 align:start position:0% all the reasons to confirm that idea and 00:04:15.299 --> 00:04:17.089 align:start position:0% all the reasons to confirm that idea and not<00:04:15.780> really<00:04:16.079> pay<00:04:16.229> attention<00:04:16.650> to<00:04:16.739> the<00:04:16.829> evidence 00:04:17.089 --> 00:04:17.099 align:start position:0% not really pay attention to the evidence 00:04:17.099 --> 00:04:20.060 align:start position:0% not really pay attention to the evidence that<00:04:17.430> they're<00:04:17.609> not<00:04:18.260> and<00:04:19.260> so<00:04:19.650> it<00:04:19.950> really 00:04:20.060 --> 00:04:20.070 align:start position:0% that they're not and so it really 00:04:20.070 --> 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and information<00:04:37.680> you<00:04:37.710> have<00:04:37.980> in<00:04:38.550> order<00:04:38.700> to<00:04:38.880> come<00:04:39.090> to 00:04:39.350 --> 00:04:39.360 align:start position:0% information you have in order to come to 00:04:39.360 --> 00:04:42.770 align:start position:0% information you have in order to come to the<00:04:39.480> objective<00:04:39.930> truth<00:04:41.390> and<00:04:42.390> these<00:04:42.480> are<00:04:42.600> just<00:04:42.690> a 00:04:42.770 --> 00:04:42.780 align:start position:0% the objective truth and these are just a 00:04:42.780 --> 00:04:45.080 align:start position:0% the objective truth and these are just a few<00:04:42.810> of<00:04:43.050> a<00:04:43.890> plethora<00:04:44.160> of<00:04:44.340> rational<00:04:44.970> thinking 00:04:45.080 --> 00:04:45.090 align:start position:0% few of a plethora of rational thinking 00:04:45.090 --> 00:04:49.010 align:start position:0% few of a plethora of rational thinking skills<00:04:45.650> that<00:04:46.650> I<00:04:46.920> found<00:04:47.310> it's<00:04:47.460> taught<00:04:47.670> me<00:04:48.020> that 00:04:49.010 --> 00:04:49.020 align:start position:0% skills that I found it's taught me that 00:04:49.020 --> 00:04:50.450 align:start position:0% skills that I found it's taught me that applies<00:04:49.320> to<00:04:49.350> life<00:04:49.560> and<00:04:49.800> hopefully<00:04:50.190> you<00:04:50.310> will 00:04:50.450 --> 00:04:50.460 align:start position:0% applies to life and hopefully you will 00:04:50.460 --> 00:04:52.640 align:start position:0% applies to life and hopefully you will identify<00:04:50.640> with<00:04:51.570> many<00:04:51.750> of<00:04:51.900> these<00:04:52.050> to<00:04:52.410> in<00:04:52.530> your 00:04:52.640 --> 00:04:52.650 align:start position:0% identify with many of these to in your 00:04:52.650 --> 00:04:56.030 align:start position:0% identify with many of these to in your lives<00:04:52.860> as<00:04:53.160> technologists<00:04:54.740> the<00:04:55.740> thing<00:04:55.920> about 00:04:56.030 --> 00:04:56.040 align:start position:0% lives as technologists the thing about 00:04:56.040 --> 00:04:57.770 align:start position:0% lives as technologists the thing about rational<00:04:56.370> thinking<00:04:56.670> is<00:04:56.910> that<00:04:57.300> it's<00:04:57.450> not<00:04:57.540> just 00:04:57.770 --> 00:04:57.780 align:start position:0% rational thinking is that it's not just 00:04:57.780 --> 00:05:00.650 align:start position:0% rational thinking is that it's not just about<00:04:57.990> making<00:04:58.620> the<00:04:59.580> best<00:04:59.760> decisions<00:05:00.240> to 00:05:00.650 --> 00:05:00.660 align:start position:0% about making the best decisions to 00:05:00.660 --> 00:05:03.310 align:start position:0% about making the best decisions to achieve<00:05:00.930> your<00:05:01.050> goals<00:05:01.460> it's<00:05:02.460> also<00:05:02.640> about 00:05:03.310 --> 00:05:03.320 align:start position:0% achieve your goals it's also about 00:05:03.320 --> 00:05:05.390 align:start position:0% achieve your goals it's also about figuring<00:05:04.320> out<00:05:04.440> what<00:05:04.590> your<00:05:04.740> goals<00:05:04.770> should<00:05:05.190> be 00:05:05.390 --> 00:05:05.400 align:start position:0% figuring out what your goals should be 00:05:05.400 --> 00:05:08.690 align:start position:0% figuring out what your goals should be in<00:05:05.880> the<00:05:06.060> first<00:05:06.210> place<00:05:06.510> and<00:05:07.410> so<00:05:07.800> for<00:05:07.950> me<00:05:08.070> after<00:05:08.400> a 00:05:08.690 --> 00:05:08.700 align:start position:0% in the first place and so for me after a 00:05:08.700 --> 00:05:11.090 align:start position:0% in the first place and so for me after a few<00:05:08.970> sort<00:05:09.180> of<00:05:09.240> blissful<00:05:10.110> very<00:05:10.860> hedonistic 00:05:11.090 --> 00:05:11.100 align:start position:0% few sort of blissful very hedonistic 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existential<00:05:24.570> crisis<00:05:28.850> yeah<00:05:29.850> basically<00:05:30.060> I 00:05:30.890 --> 00:05:30.900 align:start position:0% existential crisis yeah basically I 00:05:30.900 --> 00:05:33.320 align:start position:0% existential crisis yeah basically I turned<00:05:31.560> 13<00:05:31.950> and<00:05:32.250> at<00:05:32.610> the<00:05:32.700> same<00:05:32.850> time<00:05:33.000> I<00:05:33.270> came 00:05:33.320 --> 00:05:33.330 align:start position:0% turned 13 and at the same time I came 00:05:33.330 --> 00:05:36.380 align:start position:0% turned 13 and at the same time I came across<00:05:33.620> this<00:05:34.640> chart<00:05:35.640> some<00:05:35.940> of<00:05:36.030> you<00:05:36.120> might<00:05:36.270> have 00:05:36.380 --> 00:05:36.390 align:start position:0% across this chart some of you might have 00:05:36.390 --> 00:05:38.900 align:start position:0% across this chart some of you might have seen<00:05:36.510> it<00:05:36.660> on<00:05:36.840> the<00:05:36.870> wait<00:05:37.440> bolt<00:05:37.620> white<00:05:37.740> blog<00:05:37.980> it's 00:05:38.900 --> 00:05:38.910 align:start position:0% seen it on the wait bolt white blog it's 00:05:38.910 --> 00:05:41.570 align:start position:0% seen it on the wait bolt white blog it's basically<00:05:39.360> this<00:05:39.630> is<00:05:39.780> your<00:05:39.810> life<00:05:40.200> in<00:05:40.620> years<00:05:41.370> and 00:05:41.570 --> 00:05:41.580 align:start position:0% basically this is your life in years and 00:05:41.580 --> 00:05:43.970 align:start position:0% basically this is your life in years and each<00:05:41.670> one<00:05:41.850> of<00:05:41.880> these<00:05:42.000> dots<00:05:42.360> is<00:05:42.690> a<00:05:42.870> week<00:05:43.200> so 00:05:43.970 --> 00:05:43.980 align:start position:0% each one of these dots is a week so 00:05:43.980 --> 00:05:45.560 align:start position:0% each one of these dots is a week so basically<00:05:44.610> the<00:05:44.790> time<00:05:44.970> you<00:05:45.120> spent<00:05:45.360> at<00:05:45.480> this 00:05:45.560 --> 00:05:45.570 align:start position:0% basically the time you spent at this 00:05:45.570 --> 00:05:46.610 align:start position:0% basically the time you spent at this conference<00:05:45.810> you'll<00:05:46.200> spend<00:05:46.380> at<00:05:46.500> this 00:05:46.610 --> 00:05:46.620 align:start position:0% conference you'll spend at this 00:05:46.620 --> 00:05:49.010 align:start position:0% conference you'll spend at this conference<00:05:46.800> is<00:05:47.070> one<00:05:47.370> of<00:05:47.520> these<00:05:47.640> dots<00:05:48.000> and<00:05:48.360> that 00:05:49.010 --> 00:05:49.020 align:start position:0% conference is one of these dots and that 00:05:49.020 --> 00:05:52.190 align:start position:0% conference is one of these dots and that seems<00:05:49.530> alright<00:05:50.070> until<00:05:51.030> well<00:05:51.570> for<00:05:51.810> me<00:05:51.930> when<00:05:51.960> I 00:05:52.190 --> 00:05:52.200 align:start position:0% seems alright until well for me when I 00:05:52.200 --> 00:05:54.530 align:start position:0% seems alright until well for me when I was<00:05:52.380> 30<00:05:52.650> I<00:05:52.800> realized<00:05:53.310> that<00:05:53.460> this<00:05:53.640> section<00:05:53.940> had 00:05:54.530 --> 00:05:54.540 align:start position:0% was 30 I realized that this section had 00:05:54.540 --> 00:05:57.980 align:start position:0% was 30 I realized that this section had already<00:05:54.840> gone<00:05:55.640> and<00:05:56.640> I<00:05:56.760> just<00:05:57.000> completely<00:05:57.390> began 00:05:57.980 --> 00:05:57.990 align:start position:0% already gone and I just completely began 00:05:57.990 --> 00:06:00.620 align:start position:0% already gone and I just completely began freaking<00:05:58.410> out<00:05:58.560> and<00:05:58.860> because<00:05:59.250> I<00:05:59.340> was<00:05:59.460> like<00:05:59.630> is 00:06:00.620 --> 00:06:00.630 align:start position:0% freaking out and because I was like is 00:06:00.630 --> 00:06:02.690 align:start position:0% freaking out and because I was like is this<00:06:00.870> you<00:06:01.290> know<00:06:01.380> it's<00:06:01.800> poker<00:06:02.070> just<00:06:02.340> gonna<00:06:02.550> be 00:06:02.690 --> 00:06:02.700 align:start position:0% this you know it's poker just gonna be 00:06:02.700 --> 00:06:05.000 align:start position:0% this you know it's poker just gonna be my<00:06:02.850> thing<00:06:03.120> is<00:06:03.330> this<00:06:03.480> gonna<00:06:04.050> be<00:06:04.140> the<00:06:04.500> legacy<00:06:04.680> on 00:06:05.000 --> 00:06:05.010 align:start position:0% my thing is this gonna be the legacy on 00:06:05.010 --> 00:06:09.230 align:start position:0% my thing is this gonna be the legacy on my<00:06:05.130> tombstone<00:06:05.400> that<00:06:05.700> I<00:06:07.340> made<00:06:08.340> some<00:06:08.670> expected 00:06:09.230 --> 00:06:09.240 align:start position:0% my tombstone that I made some expected 00:06:09.240 --> 00:06:10.850 align:start position:0% my tombstone that I made some expected value<00:06:09.540> from<00:06:09.720> the<00:06:09.840> guy<00:06:09.960> down<00:06:10.200> the<00:06:10.320> casino<00:06:10.800> she 00:06:10.850 --> 00:06:10.860 align:start position:0% value from the guy down the casino she 00:06:10.860 --> 00:06:13.720 align:start position:0% value from the guy down the casino she did<00:06:11.220> a<00:06:11.280> great<00:06:11.460> job<00:06:11.490> at<00:06:11.730> that<00:06:11.760> no<00:06:12.390> I<00:06:12.660> wanted<00:06:12.930> to 00:06:13.720 --> 00:06:13.730 align:start position:0% did a great job at that no I wanted to 00:06:13.730 --> 00:06:17.510 align:start position:0% did a great job at that no I wanted to have<00:06:14.730> I<00:06:15.090> guess<00:06:15.540> something<00:06:16.140> bigger<00:06:16.920> that<00:06:17.490> I 00:06:17.510 --> 00:06:17.520 align:start position:0% have I guess something bigger that I 00:06:17.520 --> 00:06:19.790 align:start position:0% have I guess something bigger that I felt<00:06:17.790> I<00:06:17.910> could<00:06:18.060> aspire<00:06:18.390> to<00:06:18.690> and<00:06:18.930> particularly 00:06:19.790 --> 00:06:19.800 align:start position:0% felt I could aspire to and particularly 00:06:19.800 --> 00:06:21.500 align:start position:0% felt I could aspire to and particularly something<00:06:20.070> that<00:06:20.250> I<00:06:20.310> felt<00:06:20.490> could<00:06:20.760> benefit<00:06:21.360> the 00:06:21.500 --> 00:06:21.510 align:start position:0% something that I felt could benefit the 00:06:21.510 --> 00:06:25.370 align:start position:0% something that I felt could benefit the world<00:06:21.750> more<00:06:22.560> concretely<00:06:23.900> and<00:06:24.900> this<00:06:25.110> is<00:06:25.200> also 00:06:25.370 --> 00:06:25.380 align:start position:0% world more concretely and this is also 00:06:25.380 --> 00:06:27.290 align:start position:0% world more concretely and this is also will<00:06:26.190> sort<00:06:26.370> of<00:06:26.460> compounded<00:06:26.880> by<00:06:26.940> the<00:06:26.970> idea<00:06:27.210> that 00:06:27.290 --> 00:06:27.300 align:start position:0% will sort of compounded by the idea that 00:06:27.300 --> 00:06:29.120 align:start position:0% will sort of compounded by the idea that I<00:06:27.360> knew<00:06:27.570> I've<00:06:27.720> been<00:06:27.870> making<00:06:28.020> pretty<00:06:28.560> damn<00:06:28.890> good 00:06:29.120 --> 00:06:29.130 align:start position:0% I knew I've been making pretty damn good 00:06:29.130 --> 00:06:30.590 align:start position:0% I knew I've been making pretty damn good money<00:06:29.340> and<00:06:29.550> obviously<00:06:29.850> we<00:06:30.060> look<00:06:30.210> around<00:06:30.300> us 00:06:30.590 --> 00:06:30.600 align:start position:0% money and obviously we look around us 00:06:30.600 --> 00:06:31.970 align:start position:0% money and obviously we look around us and<00:06:30.660> we<00:06:30.780> see<00:06:30.930> there's<00:06:31.110> a<00:06:31.140> lot<00:06:31.290> of<00:06:31.410> big<00:06:31.590> problems 00:06:31.970 --> 00:06:31.980 align:start position:0% and we see there's a lot of big problems 00:06:31.980 --> 00:06:33.890 align:start position:0% and we see there's a lot of big problems going<00:06:32.130> on<00:06:32.310> and<00:06:32.490> people<00:06:32.790> less<00:06:33.060> fortunate<00:06:33.510> so<00:06:33.540> I 00:06:33.890 --> 00:06:33.900 align:start position:0% going on and people less fortunate so I 00:06:33.900 --> 00:06:35.630 align:start position:0% going on and people less fortunate so I felt<00:06:34.800> like<00:06:34.920> maybe<00:06:35.070> there<00:06:35.280> was<00:06:35.400> something<00:06:35.520> I 00:06:35.630 --> 00:06:35.640 align:start position:0% felt like maybe there was something I 00:06:35.640 --> 00:06:36.800 align:start position:0% felt like maybe there was something I could<00:06:35.670> do<00:06:35.880> if<00:06:36.000> I<00:06:36.060> could<00:06:36.210> give<00:06:36.330> it<00:06:36.420> to<00:06:36.540> the<00:06:36.630> right 00:06:36.800 --> 00:06:36.810 align:start position:0% could do if I could give it to the right 00:06:36.810 --> 00:06:40.210 align:start position:0% could do if I could give it to the right place<00:06:37.880> but<00:06:38.880> the<00:06:39.000> trouble<00:06:39.180> is<00:06:39.240> is<00:06:39.390> that<00:06:39.570> I<00:06:39.600> was 00:06:40.210 --> 00:06:40.220 align:start position:0% place but the trouble is is that I was 00:06:40.220 --> 00:06:41.570 align:start position:0% place but the trouble is is that I was very 00:06:41.570 --> 00:06:41.580 align:start position:0% very 00:06:41.580 --> 00:06:43.730 align:start position:0% very impressed<00:06:41.939> with<00:06:42.330> the<00:06:42.750> whole<00:06:42.930> sort<00:06:43.319> of<00:06:43.409> current 00:06:43.730 --> 00:06:43.740 align:start position:0% impressed with the whole sort of current 00:06:43.740 --> 00:06:46.040 align:start position:0% impressed with the whole sort of current system<00:06:44.099> particularly<00:06:44.939> the<00:06:45.120> sort<00:06:45.539> of<00:06:45.599> charity 00:06:46.040 --> 00:06:46.050 align:start position:0% system particularly the sort of charity 00:06:46.050 --> 00:06:48.740 align:start position:0% system particularly the sort of charity system<00:06:46.530> because<00:06:47.310> it<00:06:47.550> didn't<00:06:47.849> satisfy<00:06:48.210> either 00:06:48.740 --> 00:06:48.750 align:start position:0% system because it didn't satisfy either 00:06:48.750 --> 00:06:51.459 align:start position:0% system because it didn't satisfy either the<00:06:48.960> poker<00:06:49.169> player<00:06:49.500> or<00:06:49.949> the<00:06:50.430> scientist<00:06:50.969> in<00:06:51.120> me 00:06:51.459 --> 00:06:51.469 align:start position:0% the poker player or the scientist in me 00:06:51.469 --> 00:06:53.570 align:start position:0% the poker player or the scientist in me first<00:06:52.469> of<00:06:52.590> all<00:06:52.680> there<00:06:52.889> was<00:06:52.919> like<00:06:53.099> a<00:06:53.129> huge<00:06:53.370> lack 00:06:53.570 --> 00:06:53.580 align:start position:0% first of all there was like a huge lack 00:06:53.580 --> 00:06:56.629 align:start position:0% first of all there was like a huge lack of<00:06:53.840> data<00:06:54.840> and<00:06:55.229> transparency<00:06:55.919> you<00:06:56.550> know 00:06:56.629 --> 00:06:56.639 align:start position:0% of data and transparency you know 00:06:56.639 --> 00:06:58.459 align:start position:0% of data and transparency you know there's<00:06:56.789> all<00:06:56.909> these<00:06:57.090> different<00:06:57.439> causes<00:06:58.439> and 00:06:58.459 --> 00:06:58.469 align:start position:0% there's all these different causes and 00:06:58.469 --> 00:07:00.890 align:start position:0% there's all these different causes and charities<00:06:58.650> vying<00:06:59.639> for<00:06:59.759> your<00:06:59.969> donations<00:07:00.629> and 00:07:00.890 --> 00:07:00.900 align:start position:0% charities vying for your donations and 00:07:00.900 --> 00:07:03.529 align:start position:0% charities vying for your donations and how<00:07:01.229> did<00:07:01.800> I<00:07:01.860> know<00:07:01.919> which<00:07:02.280> one<00:07:02.520> was<00:07:02.909> best<00:07:03.210> to 00:07:03.529 --> 00:07:03.539 align:start position:0% how did I know which one was best to 00:07:03.539 --> 00:07:05.959 align:start position:0% how did I know which one was best to give<00:07:03.780> my<00:07:04.080> very<00:07:04.379> limited<00:07:04.949> resources<00:07:05.430> my<00:07:05.699> time 00:07:05.959 --> 00:07:05.969 align:start position:0% give my very limited resources my time 00:07:05.969 --> 00:07:08.990 align:start position:0% give my very limited resources my time and<00:07:06.210> my<00:07:06.569> money<00:07:06.750> too<00:07:07.020> and<00:07:07.680> then<00:07:08.610> on<00:07:08.729> top<00:07:08.849> of<00:07:08.909> that 00:07:08.990 --> 00:07:09.000 align:start position:0% and my money too and then on top of that 00:07:09.000 --> 00:07:11.899 align:start position:0% and my money too and then on top of that I<00:07:09.360> felt<00:07:09.659> that<00:07:09.889> any<00:07:10.889> sort<00:07:11.310> of<00:07:11.400> acts<00:07:11.490> of<00:07:11.639> good 00:07:11.899 --> 00:07:11.909 align:start position:0% I felt that any sort of acts of good 00:07:11.909 --> 00:07:13.550 align:start position:0% I felt that any sort of acts of good that<00:07:12.060> I<00:07:12.090> did<00:07:12.360> any<00:07:12.539> kind<00:07:12.689> of<00:07:12.780> charitable<00:07:13.259> thing 00:07:13.550 --> 00:07:13.560 align:start position:0% that I did any kind of charitable thing 00:07:13.560 --> 00:07:16.100 align:start position:0% that I did any kind of charitable thing or<00:07:13.770> so<00:07:14.400> on<00:07:14.550> was<00:07:14.789> always<00:07:15.120> very<00:07:15.240> emotional<00:07:15.900> based 00:07:16.100 --> 00:07:16.110 align:start position:0% or so on was always very emotional based 00:07:16.110 --> 00:07:19.010 align:start position:0% or so on was always very emotional based where<00:07:17.039> you<00:07:17.819> know<00:07:17.940> I<00:07:17.969> would<00:07:18.120> like<00:07:18.270> see<00:07:18.569> some 00:07:19.010 --> 00:07:19.020 align:start position:0% where you know I would like see some 00:07:19.020 --> 00:07:21.559 align:start position:0% where you know I would like see some really<00:07:19.800> upsetting<00:07:20.250> ad<00:07:20.610> on<00:07:20.879> the<00:07:20.969> TV<00:07:21.270> or<00:07:21.419> some 00:07:21.559 --> 00:07:21.569 align:start position:0% really upsetting ad on the TV or some 00:07:21.569 --> 00:07:23.540 align:start position:0% really upsetting ad on the TV or some disaster<00:07:22.080> and<00:07:22.199> I'd<00:07:22.289> upset<00:07:22.889> and<00:07:23.069> cry<00:07:23.250> a<00:07:23.280> bunch 00:07:23.540 --> 00:07:23.550 align:start position:0% disaster and I'd upset and cry a bunch 00:07:23.550 --> 00:07:26.059 align:start position:0% disaster and I'd upset and cry a bunch and<00:07:23.969> give<00:07:24.780> some<00:07:24.960> money<00:07:25.110> just<00:07:25.199> sort<00:07:25.530> of<00:07:25.590> feel<00:07:26.039> a 00:07:26.059 --> 00:07:26.069 align:start position:0% and give some money just sort of feel a 00:07:26.069 --> 00:07:27.260 align:start position:0% and give some money just sort of feel a bit<00:07:26.219> better<00:07:26.340> and<00:07:26.550> then<00:07:26.669> that<00:07:26.819> was<00:07:26.940> the<00:07:26.969> end<00:07:27.090> of 00:07:27.260 --> 00:07:27.270 align:start position:0% bit better and then that was the end of 00:07:27.270 --> 00:07:30.920 align:start position:0% bit better and then that was the end of it<00:07:27.389> and<00:07:28.069> well<00:07:29.069> you<00:07:29.250> know<00:07:29.280> positive<00:07:29.930> emotions 00:07:30.920 --> 00:07:30.930 align:start position:0% it and well you know positive emotions 00:07:30.930 --> 00:07:33.459 align:start position:0% it and well you know positive emotions can<00:07:31.319> be<00:07:31.409> a<00:07:31.440> good<00:07:31.680> thing<00:07:31.979> I<00:07:32.219> knew<00:07:32.819> that<00:07:33.000> they 00:07:33.459 --> 00:07:33.469 align:start position:0% can be a good thing I knew that they 00:07:33.469 --> 00:07:35.749 align:start position:0% can be a good thing I knew that they certainly<00:07:34.469> lead<00:07:34.620> to<00:07:34.740> bad<00:07:34.889> outcomes<00:07:35.310> in<00:07:35.490> poker 00:07:35.749 --> 00:07:35.759 align:start position:0% certainly lead to bad outcomes in poker 00:07:35.759 --> 00:07:39.019 align:start position:0% certainly lead to bad outcomes in poker if<00:07:36.000> that's<00:07:36.259> Hughley<00:07:37.259> what<00:07:37.379> you<00:07:37.500> use<00:07:37.680> to<00:07:38.029> drive 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position:0% suboptimal donation behavior of myself and<00:07:46.969> then<00:07:47.969> thirdly<00:07:48.240> I<00:07:48.599> felt<00:07:48.840> like<00:07:48.960> it<00:07:49.080> wasn't 00:07:49.219 --> 00:07:49.229 align:start position:0% and then thirdly I felt like it wasn't 00:07:49.229 --> 00:07:51.529 align:start position:0% and then thirdly I felt like it wasn't really<00:07:49.500> big<00:07:50.190> picture<00:07:50.430> focused<00:07:51.060> enough 00:07:51.529 --> 00:07:51.539 align:start position:0% really big picture focused enough 00:07:51.539 --> 00:07:54.499 align:start position:0% really big picture focused enough because<00:07:52.440> it<00:07:52.909> wasn't<00:07:53.909> really<00:07:54.000> objective<00:07:54.419> to 00:07:54.499 --> 00:07:54.509 align:start position:0% because it wasn't really objective to 00:07:54.509 --> 00:07:56.779 align:start position:0% because it wasn't really objective to ask<00:07:54.659> what<00:07:54.930> are<00:07:55.110> the<00:07:55.440> biggest<00:07:55.889> problems<00:07:56.610> in<00:07:56.759> the 00:07:56.779 --> 00:07:56.789 align:start position:0% ask what are the biggest problems in the 00:07:56.789 --> 00:07:57.860 align:start position:0% ask what are the biggest problems in the world<00:07:56.849> out<00:07:57.089> of<00:07:57.180> all<00:07:57.300> these<00:07:57.569> different 00:07:57.860 --> 00:07:57.870 align:start position:0% world out of all these different 00:07:57.870 --> 00:07:59.990 align:start position:0% world out of all these different problems<00:07:58.069> and<00:07:59.069> which<00:07:59.279> one<00:07:59.490> should<00:07:59.520> we<00:07:59.819> really 00:07:59.990 --> 00:08:00.000 align:start position:0% problems and which one should we really 00:08:00.000 --> 00:08:02.540 align:start position:0% problems and which one should we really be<00:08:00.089> focusing<00:08:00.629> our<00:08:00.870> time<00:08:00.900> on<00:08:01.430> so<00:08:02.430> yeah 00:08:02.540 --> 00:08:02.550 align:start position:0% be focusing our time on so yeah 00:08:02.550 --> 00:08:04.070 align:start position:0% be focusing our time on so yeah basically<00:08:02.729> I<00:08:03.150> was<00:08:03.330> very<00:08:03.479> very<00:08:03.659> stuck<00:08:03.930> about 00:08:04.070 --> 00:08:04.080 align:start position:0% basically I was very very stuck about 00:08:04.080 --> 00:08:06.950 align:start position:0% basically I was very very stuck about what<00:08:04.229> to<00:08:04.349> do<00:08:04.500> and<00:08:04.770> then<00:08:05.339> fortunately<00:08:05.789> I<00:08:06.120> came 00:08:06.950 --> 00:08:06.960 align:start position:0% what to do and then fortunately I came 00:08:06.960 --> 00:08:09.769 align:start position:0% what to do and then fortunately I came across<00:08:07.110> a<00:08:07.589> sort<00:08:08.520> of<00:08:08.550> a<00:08:08.819> group<00:08:09.240> of<00:08:09.389> people<00:08:09.569> a 00:08:09.769 --> 00:08:09.779 align:start position:0% across a sort of a group of people a 00:08:09.779 --> 00:08:12.529 align:start position:0% across a sort of a group of people a movement<00:08:10.050> known<00:08:10.529> as<00:08:10.580> effective<00:08:11.580> altruism<00:08:11.969> and 00:08:12.529 --> 00:08:12.539 align:start position:0% movement known as effective altruism and 00:08:12.539 --> 00:08:15.469 align:start position:0% movement known as effective altruism and this<00:08:13.139> is<00:08:13.259> essentially<00:08:13.889> the<00:08:14.520> application<00:08:15.210> of 00:08:15.469 --> 00:08:15.479 align:start position:0% this is essentially the application of 00:08:15.479 --> 00:08:18.230 align:start position:0% this is essentially the application of scientific<00:08:16.050> and<00:08:16.289> poker<00:08:16.560> thinking<00:08:16.979> to<00:08:17.610> the 00:08:18.230 --> 00:08:18.240 align:start position:0% scientific and poker thinking to the 00:08:18.240 --> 00:08:20.269 align:start position:0% scientific and poker thinking to the idea<00:08:18.509> of<00:08:18.629> doing<00:08:18.810> good<00:08:19.229> whatever<00:08:19.650> good<00:08:19.889> might 00:08:20.269 --> 00:08:20.279 align:start position:0% idea of doing good whatever good might 00:08:20.279 --> 00:08:22.869 align:start position:0% idea of doing good whatever good might be<00:08:20.430> and<00:08:20.729> it's<00:08:21.360> a<00:08:21.449> group<00:08:21.599> of<00:08:21.750> philosophers 00:08:22.869 --> 00:08:22.879 align:start position:0% be and it's a group of philosophers 00:08:22.879 --> 00:08:25.959 align:start position:0% be and it's a group of philosophers technologists<00:08:23.879> entrepreneurs<00:08:24.289> scientists 00:08:25.959 --> 00:08:25.969 align:start position:0% technologists entrepreneurs scientists 00:08:25.969 --> 00:08:28.519 align:start position:0% technologists entrepreneurs scientists smart<00:08:26.969> people<00:08:27.330> basically<00:08:27.509> who<00:08:27.930> care<00:08:28.169> about 00:08:28.519 --> 00:08:28.529 align:start position:0% smart people basically who care about 00:08:28.529 --> 00:08:30.350 align:start position:0% smart people basically who care about the<00:08:29.069> world<00:08:29.250> and<00:08:29.520> the<00:08:29.610> bigger<00:08:29.759> picture<00:08:30.150> and 00:08:30.350 --> 00:08:30.360 align:start position:0% the world and the bigger picture and 00:08:30.360 --> 00:08:33.170 align:start position:0% the world and the bigger picture and have<00:08:31.110> dedicated<00:08:31.409> their<00:08:31.919> lives<00:08:32.039> to<00:08:32.279> figuring 00:08:33.170 --> 00:08:33.180 align:start position:0% have dedicated their lives to figuring 00:08:33.180 --> 00:08:35.509 align:start position:0% have dedicated their lives to figuring out<00:08:33.300> what<00:08:34.169> are<00:08:34.409> these<00:08:34.529> biggest<00:08:34.890> problems<00:08:35.250> and 00:08:35.509 --> 00:08:35.519 align:start position:0% out what are these biggest problems and 00:08:35.519 --> 00:08:37.759 align:start position:0% out what are these biggest problems and how<00:08:35.909> do<00:08:35.969> we<00:08:36.180> solve<00:08:36.899> them<00:08:37.110> most<00:08:37.289> effectively 00:08:37.759 --> 00:08:37.769 align:start position:0% how do we solve them most effectively 00:08:37.769 --> 00:08:42.350 align:start position:0% how do we solve them most effectively and<00:08:38.390> so<00:08:39.390> this<00:08:40.729> this<00:08:41.729> was<00:08:41.880> basically<00:08:42.029> the<00:08:42.180> most 00:08:42.350 --> 00:08:42.360 align:start position:0% and so this this was basically the most 00:08:42.360 --> 00:08:44.180 align:start position:0% and so this this was basically the most inspiring<00:08:42.750> thing<00:08:43.019> I<00:08:43.229> ever<00:08:43.380> came<00:08:43.589> across<00:08:43.740> and 00:08:44.180 --> 00:08:44.190 align:start position:0% inspiring thing I ever came across and 00:08:44.190 --> 00:08:46.490 align:start position:0% inspiring thing I ever came across and it<00:08:44.640> answered<00:08:45.480> this<00:08:45.570> question<00:08:45.750> inside<00:08:46.230> of<00:08:46.380> me 00:08:46.490 --> 00:08:46.500 align:start position:0% it answered this question inside of me 00:08:46.500 --> 00:08:48.530 align:start position:0% it answered this question inside of me of<00:08:46.829> like<00:08:47.100> what<00:08:47.430> I<00:08:47.579> should<00:08:47.640> be<00:08:47.940> focusing<00:08:48.390> my 00:08:48.530 --> 00:08:48.540 align:start position:0% of like what I should be focusing my 00:08:48.540 --> 00:08:50.480 align:start position:0% of like what I should be focusing my time<00:08:48.779> on<00:08:48.930> or<00:08:49.410> at<00:08:49.560> least<00:08:49.709> I<00:08:49.920> felt<00:08:50.279> that<00:08:50.370> this 00:08:50.480 --> 00:08:50.490 align:start position:0% time on or at least I felt that this 00:08:50.490 --> 00:08:52.400 align:start position:0% time on or at least I felt that this offered<00:08:50.850> a<00:08:50.940> sort<00:08:51.329> of<00:08:51.360> a<00:08:51.540> glimmer<00:08:51.930> of<00:08:51.990> hope<00:08:52.110> of 00:08:52.400 --> 00:08:52.410 align:start position:0% offered a sort of a glimmer of hope of 00:08:52.410 --> 00:08:54.110 align:start position:0% offered a sort of a glimmer of hope of how<00:08:52.649> to<00:08:53.130> figure<00:08:53.399> out<00:08:53.550> what<00:08:53.730> they<00:08:53.850> you<00:08:54.029> know 00:08:54.110 --> 00:08:54.120 align:start position:0% how to figure out what they you know 00:08:54.120 --> 00:08:55.520 align:start position:0% how to figure out what they you know what<00:08:54.600> I<00:08:54.630> should<00:08:54.720> be<00:08:55.020> doing 00:08:55.520 --> 00:08:55.530 align:start position:0% what I should be doing 00:08:55.530 --> 00:08:59.630 align:start position:0% what I should be doing and<00:08:57.590> some<00:08:58.590> of<00:08:58.680> my<00:08:58.710> poker<00:08:59.010> friends<00:08:59.340> felt<00:08:59.550> the 00:08:59.630 --> 00:08:59.640 align:start position:0% and some of my poker friends felt the 00:08:59.640 --> 00:09:02.540 align:start position:0% and some of my poker friends felt the same<00:08:59.820> way<00:08:59.970> too<00:09:00.000> so<00:09:00.890> together<00:09:01.890> we<00:09:02.190> sort<00:09:02.370> of<00:09:02.400> got 00:09:02.540 --> 00:09:02.550 align:start position:0% same way too so together we sort of got 00:09:02.550 --> 00:09:04.810 align:start position:0% same way too so together we sort of got involved<00:09:02.790> and<00:09:03.030> started<00:09:03.120> an<00:09:03.450> organization<00:09:04.080> and 00:09:04.810 --> 00:09:04.820 align:start position:0% involved and started an organization and 00:09:04.820 --> 00:09:07.340 align:start position:0% involved and started an organization and today<00:09:05.820> I'm<00:09:06.150> very<00:09:06.360> excited<00:09:06.840> to<00:09:06.930> announce<00:09:07.110> they 00:09:07.340 --> 00:09:07.350 align:start position:0% today I'm very excited to announce they 00:09:07.350 --> 00:09:09.380 align:start position:0% today I'm very excited to announce they have<00:09:07.530> one<00:09:08.220> of<00:09:08.250> these<00:09:08.400> full-time<00:09:08.970> effective 00:09:09.380 --> 00:09:09.390 align:start position:0% have one of these full-time effective 00:09:09.390 --> 00:09:12.530 align:start position:0% have one of these full-time effective altruists<00:09:09.720> here<00:09:10.200> with<00:09:10.440> us<00:09:10.820> she's<00:09:11.820> simply 00:09:12.530 --> 00:09:12.540 align:start position:0% altruists here with us she's simply 00:09:12.540 --> 00:09:14.840 align:start position:0% altruists here with us she's simply brilliant<00:09:12.810> I<00:09:13.290> won't<00:09:14.190> give<00:09:14.340> any<00:09:14.460> more<00:09:14.610> intro 00:09:14.840 --> 00:09:14.850 align:start position:0% brilliant I won't give any more intro 00:09:14.850 --> 00:09:16.760 align:start position:0% brilliant I won't give any more intro than<00:09:15.000> that<00:09:15.150> because<00:09:15.990> she's<00:09:16.170> enjoying<00:09:16.500> herself 00:09:16.760 --> 00:09:16.770 align:start position:0% than that because she's enjoying herself 00:09:16.770 --> 00:09:18.440 align:start position:0% than that because she's enjoying herself her<00:09:17.160> name<00:09:17.280> is<00:09:17.370> Natalie<00:09:17.550> Cargill<00:09:18.060> and<00:09:18.300> she's 00:09:18.440 --> 00:09:18.450 align:start position:0% her name is Natalie Cargill and she's 00:09:18.450 --> 00:09:19.820 align:start position:0% her name is Natalie Cargill and she's gonna<00:09:18.570> explain<00:09:18.780> a<00:09:18.840> little<00:09:18.930> bit<00:09:19.080> more<00:09:19.260> about 00:09:19.820 --> 00:09:19.830 align:start position:0% gonna explain a little bit more about 00:09:19.830 --> 00:09:29.810 align:start position:0% gonna explain a little bit more about what<00:09:20.070> we're<00:09:20.220> working<00:09:20.340> on<00:09:27.440> Thank<00:09:28.440> You<00:09:28.500> Liv<00:09:28.820> no 00:09:29.810 --> 00:09:29.820 align:start position:0% what we're working on Thank You Liv no 00:09:29.820 --> 00:09:32.870 align:start position:0% what we're working on Thank You Liv no pressure<00:09:30.090> so<00:09:30.720> my<00:09:31.380> background<00:09:31.890> is<00:09:32.220> not<00:09:32.700> in 00:09:32.870 --> 00:09:32.880 align:start position:0% pressure so my background is not in 00:09:32.880 --> 00:09:35.150 align:start position:0% pressure so my background is not in science<00:09:33.270> or<00:09:33.990> in<00:09:34.080> poker<00:09:34.320> or<00:09:34.590> anything<00:09:34.830> so 00:09:35.150 --> 00:09:35.160 align:start position:0% science or in poker or anything so 00:09:35.160 --> 00:09:39.080 align:start position:0% science or in poker or anything so glamorous<00:09:35.750> but<00:09:36.750> in<00:09:37.050> law<00:09:37.290> and<00:09:37.730> this<00:09:38.730> is<00:09:38.880> not 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align:start position:0% you can perhaps tell from the slightly 00:09:45.060 --> 00:09:47.540 align:start position:0% you can perhaps tell from the slightly glazed<00:09:45.270> expression<00:09:45.560> this<00:09:46.560> was<00:09:46.800> at<00:09:46.920> my<00:09:47.040> call<00:09:47.460> to 00:09:47.540 --> 00:09:47.550 align:start position:0% glazed expression this was at my call to 00:09:47.550 --> 00:09:49.610 align:start position:0% glazed expression this was at my call to the<00:09:47.640> bar<00:09:47.790> ceremony<00:09:48.360> several<00:09:48.960> glasses<00:09:49.110> of<00:09:49.380> wine 00:09:49.610 --> 00:09:49.620 align:start position:0% the bar ceremony several glasses of wine 00:09:49.620 --> 00:09:53.180 align:start position:0% the bar ceremony several glasses of wine in<00:09:49.920> I<00:09:50.390> couldn't<00:09:51.390> find<00:09:51.510> another<00:09:51.600> picture<00:09:52.160> so<00:09:53.160> I 00:09:53.180 --> 00:09:53.190 align:start position:0% in I couldn't find another picture so I 00:09:53.190 --> 00:09:55.240 align:start position:0% in I couldn't find another picture so I love<00:09:53.430> two<00:09:53.640> things<00:09:53.880> about<00:09:54.120> more<00:09:54.330> in<00:09:54.540> particular 00:09:55.240 --> 00:09:55.250 align:start position:0% love two things about more in particular 00:09:55.250 --> 00:09:58.430 align:start position:0% love two things about more in particular first<00:09:56.250> as<00:09:56.550> a<00:09:57.270> barrister<00:09:57.690> especially<00:09:58.290> it's 00:09:58.430 --> 00:09:58.440 align:start position:0% first as a barrister especially it's 00:09:58.440 --> 00:10:00.560 align:start position:0% first as a barrister especially it's particularly<00:09:59.010> hard<00:09:59.340> to<00:10:00.360> your<00:10:00.540> way 00:10:00.560 --> 00:10:00.570 align:start position:0% particularly hard to your way 00:10:00.570 --> 00:10:03.770 align:start position:0% particularly hard to your way through<00:10:00.990> it<00:10:01.140> and<00:10:01.640> it<00:10:02.640> really<00:10:03.089> forces<00:10:03.480> you 00:10:03.770 --> 00:10:03.780 align:start position:0% through it and it really forces you 00:10:03.780 --> 00:10:05.870 align:start position:0% through it and it really forces you working<00:10:04.260> in<00:10:04.440> unfamiliar<00:10:05.100> areas<00:10:05.610> and 00:10:05.870 --> 00:10:05.880 align:start position:0% working in unfamiliar areas and 00:10:05.880 --> 00:10:08.890 align:start position:0% working in unfamiliar areas and difficult<00:10:06.300> topics<00:10:06.690> to<00:10:06.990> think<00:10:07.920> really<00:10:08.460> clearly 00:10:08.890 --> 00:10:08.900 align:start position:0% difficult topics to think really clearly 00:10:08.900 --> 00:10:12.290 align:start position:0% difficult topics to think really clearly to<00:10:09.900> reason<00:10:10.530> really<00:10:11.010> carefully<00:10:11.580> and<00:10:11.790> to 00:10:12.290 --> 00:10:12.300 align:start position:0% to reason really carefully and to 00:10:12.300 --> 00:10:15.530 align:start position:0% to reason really carefully and to express<00:10:12.780> yourself<00:10:13.260> very<00:10:13.800> precisely<00:10:14.339> and<00:10:14.820> if 00:10:15.530 --> 00:10:15.540 align:start position:0% express yourself very precisely and if 00:10:15.540 --> 00:10:17.180 align:start position:0% express yourself very precisely and if you<00:10:15.630> don't<00:10:15.810> do<00:10:15.990> that<00:10:16.170> someone<00:10:16.710> will<00:10:16.830> tell<00:10:17.010> you 00:10:17.180 --> 00:10:17.190 align:start position:0% you don't do that someone will tell you 00:10:17.190 --> 00:10:19.490 align:start position:0% you don't do that someone will tell you really<00:10:17.640> quickly<00:10:17.940> as<00:10:18.270> I<00:10:18.570> found<00:10:18.780> out<00:10:18.990> during<00:10:19.380> my 00:10:19.490 --> 00:10:19.500 align:start position:0% really quickly as I found out during my 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position:0% into the right areas you can actually work<00:10:28.500> on<00:10:28.740> some<00:10:29.040> release<00:10:29.550> with<00:10:29.880> big<00:10:30.210> picture 00:10:30.680 --> 00:10:30.690 align:start position:0% work on some release with big picture 00:10:30.690 --> 00:10:33.260 align:start position:0% work on some release with big picture questions<00:10:31.140> of<00:10:31.470> ethical<00:10:32.220> or<00:10:32.460> political<00:10:33.060> or 00:10:33.260 --> 00:10:33.270 align:start position:0% questions of ethical or political or 00:10:33.270 --> 00:10:36.260 align:start position:0% questions of ethical or political or social<00:10:33.540> importance<00:10:34.320> and<00:10:34.740> I'm<00:10:35.640> lucky<00:10:35.910> that<00:10:36.120> the 00:10:36.260 --> 00:10:36.270 align:start position:0% social importance and I'm lucky that the 00:10:36.270 --> 00:10:38.329 align:start position:0% social importance and I'm lucky that the chambers<00:10:36.690> where<00:10:36.930> I'm<00:10:37.020> now<00:10:37.140> a<00:10:37.170> tenant<00:10:37.620> does 00:10:38.329 --> 00:10:38.339 align:start position:0% chambers where I'm now a tenant does 00:10:38.339 --> 00:10:40.430 align:start position:0% chambers where I'm now a tenant does work<00:10:38.610> on<00:10:38.820> these<00:10:38.940> big<00:10:39.210> questions<00:10:39.360> and<00:10:40.020> public 00:10:40.430 --> 00:10:40.440 align:start position:0% work on these big questions and public 00:10:40.440 --> 00:10:44.300 align:start position:0% work on these big questions and public inquiries<00:10:41.070> and<00:10:41.310> inquests<00:10:41.880> etc<00:10:43.310> so 00:10:44.300 --> 00:10:44.310 align:start position:0% inquiries and inquests etc so 00:10:44.310 --> 00:10:45.770 align:start position:0% inquiries and inquests etc so essentially<00:10:44.760> what<00:10:44.910> I<00:10:44.940> was<00:10:45.150> always<00:10:45.480> drawn<00:10:45.750> to 00:10:45.770 --> 00:10:45.780 align:start position:0% essentially what I was always drawn to 00:10:45.780 --> 00:10:48.440 align:start position:0% essentially what I was always drawn to was<00:10:46.350> a<00:10:46.670> career<00:10:47.670> where<00:10:47.910> I<00:10:47.940> could<00:10:48.150> work<00:10:48.420> with 00:10:48.440 --> 00:10:48.450 align:start position:0% was a career where I could work with 00:10:48.450 --> 00:10:50.990 align:start position:0% was a career where I could work with really<00:10:49.050> thoughtful<00:10:49.650> really<00:10:49.980> smart<00:10:50.370> people<00:10:50.610> on 00:10:50.990 --> 00:10:51.000 align:start position:0% really thoughtful really smart people on 00:10:51.000 --> 00:10:54.560 align:start position:0% really thoughtful really smart people on pretty<00:10:51.540> big<00:10:51.810> questions<00:10:52.410> and<00:10:53.270> that's<00:10:54.270> what 00:10:54.560 --> 00:10:54.570 align:start position:0% pretty big questions and that's what 00:10:54.570 --> 00:10:56.780 align:start position:0% pretty big questions and that's what drew<00:10:54.780> me<00:10:54.930> to<00:10:54.960> effective<00:10:55.650> altruism<00:10:56.010> which<00:10:56.339> I've 00:10:56.780 --> 00:10:56.790 align:start position:0% drew me to effective altruism which I've 00:10:56.790 --> 00:11:01.040 align:start position:0% drew me to effective altruism which I've been<00:10:56.820> involved<00:10:57.180> in<00:10:57.420> for<00:10:57.630> a<00:10:57.960> few<00:10:58.260> years<00:10:58.500> so<00:11:00.050> as 00:11:01.040 --> 00:11:01.050 align:start position:0% been involved in for a few years so as 00:11:01.050 --> 00:11:03.410 align:start position:0% been involved in for a few years so as Liv<00:11:01.230> outlined<00:11:01.620> effective<00:11:02.250> altruism<00:11:02.700> is<00:11:03.060> the 00:11:03.410 --> 00:11:03.420 align:start position:0% Liv outlined effective altruism is the 00:11:03.420 --> 00:11:05.990 align:start position:0% Liv outlined effective altruism is the intellectual<00:11:04.380> and<00:11:04.620> moral<00:11:05.130> project<00:11:05.760> of 00:11:05.990 --> 00:11:06.000 align:start position:0% intellectual and moral project of 00:11:06.000 --> 00:11:08.449 align:start position:0% intellectual and moral project of finding<00:11:06.690> those<00:11:06.900> actions<00:11:07.440> that<00:11:08.040> will<00:11:08.190> do<00:11:08.339> the 00:11:08.449 --> 00:11:08.459 align:start position:0% finding those actions that will do the 00:11:08.459 --> 00:11:09.350 align:start position:0% finding those actions that will do the most<00:11:08.700> good 00:11:09.350 --> 00:11:09.360 align:start position:0% most good 00:11:09.360 --> 00:11:11.660 align:start position:0% most good for<00:11:09.509> the<00:11:09.600> least<00:11:09.809> sacrifice<00:11:10.350> and<00:11:10.829> then<00:11:11.579> the 00:11:11.660 --> 00:11:11.670 align:start position:0% for the least sacrifice and then the 00:11:11.670 --> 00:11:13.850 align:start position:0% for the least sacrifice and then the practical<00:11:12.119> project<00:11:12.540> of<00:11:12.749> actually<00:11:13.410> taking 00:11:13.850 --> 00:11:13.860 align:start position:0% practical project of actually taking 00:11:13.860 --> 00:11:16.329 align:start position:0% practical project of actually taking those<00:11:13.980> actions<00:11:14.220> which<00:11:15.029> is<00:11:15.179> often<00:11:15.480> harder 00:11:16.329 --> 00:11:16.339 align:start position:0% those actions which is often harder 00:11:16.339 --> 00:11:18.379 align:start position:0% those actions which is often harder there<00:11:17.339> are<00:11:17.429> a<00:11:17.489> couple<00:11:17.639> of<00:11:17.819> things<00:11:18.059> that<00:11:18.360> I 00:11:18.379 --> 00:11:18.389 align:start position:0% there are a couple of things that I 00:11:18.389 --> 00:11:20.840 align:start position:0% there are a couple of things that I think<00:11:18.720> make<00:11:19.049> this<00:11:19.230> project<00:11:19.499> distinctive<00:11:20.429> from 00:11:20.840 --> 00:11:20.850 align:start position:0% think make this project distinctive from 00:11:20.850 --> 00:11:23.359 align:start position:0% think make this project distinctive from other<00:11:21.119> social<00:11:21.959> movements<00:11:22.110> well<00:11:22.829> there<00:11:23.279> are 00:11:23.359 --> 00:11:23.369 align:start position:0% other social movements well there are 00:11:23.369 --> 00:11:26.600 align:start position:0% other social movements well there are three<00:11:23.579> you<00:11:23.939> can<00:11:24.089> see<00:11:24.239> them<00:11:24.499> so<00:11:25.499> first<00:11:26.249> of<00:11:26.489> all 00:11:26.600 --> 00:11:26.610 align:start position:0% three you can see them so first of all 00:11:26.610 --> 00:11:29.329 align:start position:0% three you can see them so first of all and<00:11:27.029> I<00:11:28.019> think<00:11:28.439> this<00:11:28.559> is<00:11:28.679> perhaps<00:11:28.829> the<00:11:29.100> most 00:11:29.329 --> 00:11:29.339 align:start position:0% and I think this is perhaps the most 00:11:29.339 --> 00:11:32.530 align:start position:0% and I think this is perhaps the most important<00:11:30.319> effective<00:11:31.319> altruism<00:11:31.769> is<00:11:32.040> about 00:11:32.530 --> 00:11:32.540 align:start position:0% important effective altruism is about 00:11:32.540 --> 00:11:36.049 align:start position:0% important effective altruism is about maximizing<00:11:33.540> the<00:11:33.869> amount<00:11:33.929> of<00:11:34.170> good<00:11:34.439> you<00:11:34.559> do<00:11:35.059> so 00:11:36.049 --> 00:11:36.059 align:start position:0% maximizing the amount of good you do so 00:11:36.059 --> 00:11:38.090 align:start position:0% maximizing the amount of good you do so often<00:11:36.329> when<00:11:36.480> it<00:11:36.569> comes<00:11:36.809> to<00:11:37.049> various<00:11:37.529> sort<00:11:38.040> of 00:11:38.090 --> 00:11:38.100 align:start position:0% often when it comes to various sort of 00:11:38.100 --> 00:11:39.799 align:start position:0% often when it comes to various sort of philanthropic<00:11:38.339> endeavors<00:11:39.179> or<00:11:39.420> career 00:11:39.799 --> 00:11:39.809 align:start position:0% philanthropic endeavors or career 00:11:39.809 --> 00:11:42.739 align:start position:0% philanthropic endeavors or career choices<00:11:40.439> we<00:11:41.160> ask<00:11:41.339> ourselves<00:11:41.519> is<00:11:41.970> this<00:11:42.209> a<00:11:42.269> good 00:11:42.739 --> 00:11:42.749 align:start position:0% choices we ask ourselves is this a good 00:11:42.749 --> 00:11:45.049 align:start position:0% choices we ask ourselves is this a good thing<00:11:43.049> to<00:11:43.199> do<00:11:43.350> is<00:11:43.649> this<00:11:43.920> a<00:11:43.949> reasonable<00:11:44.549> use<00:11:44.879> of 00:11:45.049 --> 00:11:45.059 align:start position:0% thing to do is this a reasonable use of 00:11:45.059 --> 00:11:48.350 align:start position:0% thing to do is this a reasonable use of resources<00:11:45.559> what<00:11:46.559> we<00:11:46.679> should<00:11:46.889> be<00:11:46.920> asking<00:11:47.189> is<00:11:47.670> is 00:11:48.350 --> 00:11:48.360 align:start position:0% resources what we should be asking is is 00:11:48.360 --> 00:11:50.509 align:start position:0% resources what we should be asking is is this<00:11:48.569> the<00:11:48.749> best<00:11:49.139> plausibly<00:11:49.860> with<00:11:50.069> the<00:11:50.129> best 00:11:50.509 --> 00:11:50.519 align:start position:0% this the best plausibly with the best 00:11:50.519 --> 00:11:52.579 align:start position:0% this the best plausibly with the best use<00:11:50.850> of<00:11:50.879> my<00:11:51.149> next<00:11:51.629> bit<00:11:51.809> of<00:11:51.839> resource<00:11:52.259> whether 00:11:52.579 --> 00:11:52.589 align:start position:0% use of my next bit of resource whether 00:11:52.589 --> 00:11:55.389 align:start position:0% use of my next bit of resource whether that's<00:11:52.799> time<00:11:53.100> or<00:11:53.459> money<00:11:53.670> or<00:11:53.790> energy<00:11:54.149> and 00:11:55.389 --> 00:11:55.399 align:start position:0% that's time or money or energy and 00:11:55.399 --> 00:11:57.229 align:start position:0% that's time or money or energy and there's<00:11:56.399> the<00:11:56.699> answer<00:11:56.819> to<00:11:57.089> those<00:11:57.179> two 00:11:57.229 --> 00:11:57.239 align:start position:0% there's the answer to those two 00:11:57.239 --> 00:12:00.579 align:start position:0% there's the answer to those two questions<00:11:57.869> can<00:11:58.230> often<00:11:58.439> be<00:11:58.529> very<00:11:58.559> different 00:12:00.579 --> 00:12:00.589 align:start position:0% questions can often be very different 00:12:00.589 --> 00:12:03.679 align:start position:0% questions can often be very different secondly<00:12:01.589> effective<00:12:02.339> altruism<00:12:02.730> is<00:12:03.059> about 00:12:03.679 --> 00:12:03.689 align:start position:0% secondly effective altruism is about 00:12:03.689 --> 00:12:07.400 align:start position:0% secondly effective altruism is about using<00:12:04.199> science<00:12:05.089> so<00:12:06.089> we've<00:12:06.239> seen<00:12:06.509> looking<00:12:07.259> back 00:12:07.400 --> 00:12:07.410 align:start position:0% using science so we've seen looking back 00:12:07.410 --> 00:12:09.859 align:start position:0% using science so we've seen looking back through<00:12:07.619> history<00:12:08.029> the<00:12:09.029> incredible<00:12:09.629> things 00:12:09.859 --> 00:12:09.869 align:start position:0% through history the incredible things 00:12:09.869 --> 00:12:11.660 align:start position:0% through history the incredible things that<00:12:10.019> happened<00:12:10.499> when<00:12:10.709> we<00:12:10.860> applied<00:12:11.160> the 00:12:11.660 --> 00:12:11.670 align:start position:0% that happened when we applied the 00:12:11.670 --> 00:12:14.150 align:start position:0% that happened when we applied the scientific<00:12:12.299> method<00:12:12.749> to<00:12:12.899> finding<00:12:13.829> the<00:12:13.919> truth 00:12:14.150 --> 00:12:14.160 align:start position:0% scientific method to finding the truth 00:12:14.160 --> 00:12:16.939 align:start position:0% scientific method to finding the truth we<00:12:14.699> had<00:12:14.850> the<00:12:14.939> Scientific<00:12:15.119> Revolution<00:12:15.949> we've 00:12:16.939 --> 00:12:16.949 align:start position:0% we had the Scientific Revolution we've 00:12:16.949 --> 00:12:19.009 align:start position:0% we had the Scientific Revolution we've not<00:12:17.129> really<00:12:17.369> applied<00:12:17.790> the<00:12:18.029> scientific<00:12:18.600> method 00:12:19.009 --> 00:12:19.019 align:start position:0% not really applied the scientific method 00:12:19.019 --> 00:12:20.989 align:start position:0% not really applied the scientific method to<00:12:19.439> finding<00:12:19.889> those<00:12:20.009> actions<00:12:20.519> that<00:12:20.610> do<00:12:20.850> the 00:12:20.989 --> 00:12:20.999 align:start position:0% to finding those actions that do the 00:12:20.999 --> 00:12:26.239 align:start position:0% to finding those actions that do the most<00:12:21.209> good<00:12:21.389> and<00:12:22.669> we<00:12:23.669> should<00:12:23.879> perhaps<00:12:24.389> and<00:12:25.249> the 00:12:26.239 --> 00:12:26.249 align:start position:0% most good and we should perhaps and the 00:12:26.249 --> 00:12:28.039 align:start position:0% most good and we should perhaps and the third<00:12:26.489> thing<00:12:26.790> that<00:12:27.149> makes<00:12:27.419> effective 00:12:28.039 --> 00:12:28.049 align:start position:0% third thing that makes effective 00:12:28.049 --> 00:12:30.169 align:start position:0% third thing that makes effective altruism<00:12:28.379> distinctive<00:12:29.040> is<00:12:29.309> it's<00:12:29.939> about 00:12:30.169 --> 00:12:30.179 align:start position:0% altruism distinctive is it's about 00:12:30.179 --> 00:12:32.509 align:start position:0% altruism distinctive is it's about impartiality<00:12:31.100> so<00:12:32.100> when<00:12:32.220> we<00:12:32.309> talk<00:12:32.489> about 00:12:32.509 --> 00:12:32.519 align:start position:0% impartiality so when we talk about 00:12:32.519 --> 00:12:34.639 align:start position:0% impartiality so when we talk about making<00:12:33.149> the<00:12:33.269> world<00:12:33.480> a<00:12:33.689> better<00:12:33.720> place<00:12:33.989> doing 00:12:34.639 --> 00:12:34.649 align:start position:0% making the world a better place doing 00:12:34.649 --> 00:12:37.789 align:start position:0% making the world a better place doing good<00:12:35.069> etc<00:12:35.569> we<00:12:36.569> want<00:12:36.749> to<00:12:36.869> do<00:12:37.079> that<00:12:37.259> treating 00:12:37.789 --> 00:12:37.799 align:start position:0% good etc we want to do that treating 00:12:37.799 --> 00:12:40.280 align:start position:0% good etc we want to do that treating everyone<00:12:38.100> equally<00:12:38.759> no<00:12:39.569> matter<00:12:39.779> whether<00:12:40.079> they 00:12:40.280 --> 00:12:40.290 align:start position:0% everyone equally no matter whether they 00:12:40.290 --> 00:12:42.650 align:start position:0% everyone equally no matter whether they are<00:12:40.319> socially<00:12:41.189> proximate<00:12:41.879> to<00:12:41.910> us<00:12:42.239> or<00:12:42.480> not 00:12:42.650 --> 00:12:42.660 align:start position:0% are socially proximate to us or not 00:12:42.660 --> 00:12:45.409 align:start position:0% are socially proximate to us or not whether<00:12:43.439> they're<00:12:43.679> here<00:12:43.949> or<00:12:44.009> far<00:12:44.429> away<00:12:44.519> whether 00:12:45.409 --> 00:12:45.419 align:start position:0% whether they're here or far away whether 00:12:45.419 --> 00:12:48.369 align:start position:0% whether they're here or far away whether they<00:12:45.629> exist<00:12:45.899> now<00:12:45.989> or<00:12:46.439> in<00:12:46.559> future<00:12:46.829> generations 00:12:48.369 --> 00:12:48.379 align:start position:0% they exist now or in future generations 00:12:48.379 --> 00:12:51.049 align:start position:0% they exist now or in future generations that's<00:12:49.379> that's<00:12:49.919> effective<00:12:50.369> altruism<00:12:50.730> in<00:12:50.999> a 00:12:51.049 --> 00:12:51.059 align:start position:0% that's that's effective altruism in a 00:12:51.059 --> 00:12:54.530 align:start position:0% that's that's effective altruism in a nutshell<00:12:51.889> but<00:12:52.889> why<00:12:53.189> is<00:12:53.249> it<00:12:53.489> important<00:12:54.089> why<00:12:54.480> is 00:12:54.530 --> 00:12:54.540 align:start position:0% nutshell but why is it important why is 00:12:54.540 --> 00:12:58.819 align:start position:0% nutshell but why is it important why is it<00:12:54.779> timely<00:12:55.079> and<00:12:55.499> important<00:12:56.040> now<00:12:57.829> essentially 00:12:58.819 --> 00:12:58.829 align:start position:0% it timely and important now essentially 00:12:58.829 --> 00:13:00.769 align:start position:0% it timely and important now essentially because<00:12:59.279> we're<00:12:59.489> living<00:12:59.639> in<00:12:59.970> a<00:13:00.059> really<00:13:00.509> weird 00:13:00.769 --> 00:13:00.779 align:start position:0% because we're living in a really weird 00:13:00.779 --> 00:13:04.039 align:start position:0% because we're living in a really weird time<00:13:01.189> where<00:13:02.189> for<00:13:03.119> the<00:13:03.209> same<00:13:03.419> amount<00:13:03.720> of<00:13:03.809> effort 00:13:04.039 --> 00:13:04.049 align:start position:0% time where for the same amount of effort 00:13:04.049 --> 00:13:07.220 align:start position:0% time where for the same amount of effort some<00:13:04.919> actions<00:13:05.429> can<00:13:05.699> plausibly<00:13:05.970> do<00:13:06.480> a<00:13:06.509> hundred 00:13:07.220 --> 00:13:07.230 align:start position:0% some actions can plausibly do a hundred 00:13:07.230 --> 00:13:09.590 align:start position:0% some actions can plausibly do a hundred or<00:13:07.410> a<00:13:07.470> thousand<00:13:08.189> times<00:13:08.429> more<00:13:08.579> good<00:13:08.999> than 00:13:09.590 --> 00:13:09.600 align:start position:0% or a thousand times more good than 00:13:09.600 --> 00:13:11.929 align:start position:0% or a thousand times more good than others<00:13:10.129> which<00:13:11.129> when<00:13:11.279> you<00:13:11.369> think<00:13:11.399> about<00:13:11.730> it<00:13:11.850> is 00:13:11.929 --> 00:13:11.939 align:start position:0% others which when you think about it is 00:13:11.939 --> 00:13:13.999 align:start position:0% others which when you think about it is really<00:13:11.970> weird<00:13:12.540> in<00:13:12.899> the<00:13:13.350> environment<00:13:13.860> in<00:13:13.949> which 00:13:13.999 --> 00:13:14.009 align:start position:0% really weird in the environment in which 00:13:14.009 --> 00:13:16.340 align:start position:0% really weird in the environment in which we<00:13:14.220> involve<00:13:14.519> there<00:13:15.449> was<00:13:15.569> no<00:13:15.749> sort<00:13:16.019> of<00:13:16.079> one 00:13:16.340 --> 00:13:16.350 align:start position:0% we involve there was no sort of one 00:13:16.350 --> 00:13:18.049 align:start position:0% we involve there was no sort of one action<00:13:16.739> that<00:13:16.919> would<00:13:17.040> take<00:13:17.220> a<00:13:17.429> little<00:13:17.819> bit<00:13:17.939> of 00:13:18.049 --> 00:13:18.059 align:start position:0% action that would take a little bit of 00:13:18.059 --> 00:13:20.109 align:start position:0% action that would take a little bit of effort<00:13:18.360> and<00:13:18.480> in<00:13:18.539> some<00:13:18.809> cases<00:13:19.110> results<00:13:19.769> in 00:13:20.109 --> 00:13:20.119 align:start position:0% effort and in some cases results in 00:13:20.119 --> 00:13:22.480 align:start position:0% effort and in some cases results in thousand<00:13:21.119> times<00:13:21.329> more<00:13:21.539> good 00:13:22.480 --> 00:13:22.490 align:start position:0% thousand times more good 00:13:22.490 --> 00:13:25.030 align:start position:0% thousand times more good but<00:13:22.730> it<00:13:22.820> seems<00:13:23.000> this<00:13:23.089> is<00:13:23.149> the<00:13:23.300> case<00:13:23.540> now<00:13:24.010> so<00:13:25.010> I 00:13:25.030 --> 00:13:25.040 align:start position:0% but it seems this is the case now so I 00:13:25.040 --> 00:13:27.310 align:start position:0% but it seems this is the case now so I just<00:13:25.250> want<00:13:25.370> to<00:13:25.459> give<00:13:25.610> you<00:13:25.640> an<00:13:26.029> example<00:13:26.660> from 00:13:27.310 --> 00:13:27.320 align:start position:0% just want to give you an example from 00:13:27.320 --> 00:13:30.060 align:start position:0% just want to give you an example from the<00:13:27.410> charity<00:13:27.950> sector<00:13:28.160> very<00:13:28.490> briefly<00:13:28.990> although 00:13:30.060 --> 00:13:30.070 align:start position:0% the charity sector very briefly although 00:13:30.070 --> 00:13:32.050 align:start position:0% the charity sector very briefly although actually<00:13:31.070> perhaps<00:13:31.279> what<00:13:31.580> we<00:13:31.670> should<00:13:31.790> be<00:13:31.820> more 00:13:32.050 --> 00:13:32.060 align:start position:0% actually perhaps what we should be more 00:13:32.060 --> 00:13:35.530 align:start position:0% actually perhaps what we should be more concerned<00:13:32.480> with<00:13:32.690> is<00:13:33.610> broadly<00:13:34.610> which<00:13:35.149> actions 00:13:35.530 --> 00:13:35.540 align:start position:0% concerned with is broadly which actions 00:13:35.540 --> 00:13:36.940 align:start position:0% concerned with is broadly which actions we<00:13:35.690> should<00:13:35.870> take<00:13:36.020> which<00:13:36.230> projects<00:13:36.680> we<00:13:36.770> should 00:13:36.940 --> 00:13:36.950 align:start position:0% we should take which projects we should 00:13:36.950 --> 00:13:38.860 align:start position:0% we should take which projects we should work<00:13:37.100> on<00:13:37.310> but<00:13:37.790> the<00:13:37.880> best<00:13:38.029> empirical<00:13:38.480> evidence 00:13:38.860 --> 00:13:38.870 align:start position:0% work on but the best empirical evidence 00:13:38.870 --> 00:13:40.240 align:start position:0% work on but the best empirical evidence that<00:13:38.899> the<00:13:39.050> moment<00:13:39.410> might<00:13:39.589> come<00:13:39.800> from<00:13:39.980> the 00:13:40.240 --> 00:13:40.250 align:start position:0% that the moment might come from the 00:13:40.250 --> 00:13:42.790 align:start position:0% that the moment might come from the charity<00:13:40.640> sector<00:13:41.290> so<00:13:42.290> say<00:13:42.410> you<00:13:42.500> wanted<00:13:42.709> to 00:13:42.790 --> 00:13:42.800 align:start position:0% charity sector so say you wanted to 00:13:42.800 --> 00:13:44.440 align:start position:0% charity sector so say you wanted to improve<00:13:43.130> the<00:13:43.279> world<00:13:43.459> and<00:13:43.790> you're<00:13:44.060> uncertain 00:13:44.440 --> 00:13:44.450 align:start position:0% improve the world and you're uncertain 00:13:44.450 --> 00:13:46.900 align:start position:0% improve the world and you're uncertain about<00:13:44.779> how<00:13:45.050> to<00:13:45.110> do<00:13:45.410> so<00:13:45.649> you<00:13:46.399> could<00:13:46.520> think<00:13:46.790> oh 00:13:46.900 --> 00:13:46.910 align:start position:0% about how to do so you could think oh 00:13:46.910 --> 00:13:49.720 align:start position:0% about how to do so you could think oh I'll<00:13:47.630> just<00:13:47.720> spread<00:13:48.350> my<00:13:48.380> bets<00:13:48.770> across<00:13:49.310> a<00:13:49.459> broad 00:13:49.720 --> 00:13:49.730 align:start position:0% I'll just spread my bets across a broad 00:13:49.730 --> 00:13:51.970 align:start position:0% I'll just spread my bets across a broad range<00:13:49.760> of<00:13:50.180> charities<00:13:50.390> and<00:13:50.930> see<00:13:51.350> what<00:13:51.500> happens 00:13:51.970 --> 00:13:51.980 align:start position:0% range of charities and see what happens 00:13:51.980 --> 00:13:54.430 align:start position:0% range of charities and see what happens I<00:13:52.510> think<00:13:53.510> it's<00:13:53.630> likely<00:13:53.839> that<00:13:53.990> you'd<00:13:54.200> end<00:13:54.320> up 00:13:54.430 --> 00:13:54.440 align:start position:0% I think it's likely that you'd end up 00:13:54.440 --> 00:13:56.769 align:start position:0% I think it's likely that you'd end up wasting<00:13:54.620> almost<00:13:55.310> all<00:13:55.490> of<00:13:55.790> your<00:13:55.910> money<00:13:56.120> if<00:13:56.390> you 00:13:56.769 --> 00:13:56.779 align:start position:0% wasting almost all of your money if you 00:13:56.779 --> 00:13:59.050 align:start position:0% wasting almost all of your money if you did<00:13:56.959> that<00:13:57.110> and<00:13:57.380> that<00:13:58.130> almost<00:13:58.310> all<00:13:58.640> of<00:13:58.700> the 00:13:59.050 --> 00:13:59.060 align:start position:0% did that and that almost all of the 00:13:59.060 --> 00:14:00.850 align:start position:0% did that and that almost all of the impact<00:13:59.480> from<00:13:59.870> your<00:14:00.050> donations<00:14:00.500> will<00:14:00.680> come 00:14:00.850 --> 00:14:00.860 align:start position:0% impact from your donations will come 00:14:00.860 --> 00:14:04.090 align:start position:0% impact from your donations will come from<00:14:00.980> a<00:14:01.130> very<00:14:01.430> small<00:14:01.910> number<00:14:02.089> of<00:14:02.240> things<00:14:03.100> so 00:14:04.090 --> 00:14:04.100 align:start position:0% from a very small number of things so 00:14:04.100 --> 00:14:25.710 align:start position:0% from a very small number of things so for<00:14:04.310> example<00:14:05.230> it<00:14:06.230> seems<00:14:06.410> plausible<00:14:20.800> in<00:14:21.880> 2015 00:14:25.710 --> 00:14:25.720 align:start position:0% 00:14:25.720 --> 00:14:29.290 align:start position:0% we're<00:14:26.720> good<00:14:26.899> we're<00:14:27.260> good<00:14:27.470> ok<00:14:28.130> most<00:14:29.120> things 00:14:29.290 --> 00:14:29.300 align:start position:0% we're good we're good ok most things 00:14:29.300 --> 00:14:33.069 align:start position:0% we're good we're good ok most things don't<00:14:29.450> work<00:14:29.630> as<00:14:29.870> I<00:14:29.990> just<00:14:30.140> said<00:14:30.579> in<00:14:31.600> 2015<00:14:32.600> the 00:14:33.069 --> 00:14:33.079 align:start position:0% don't work as I just said in 2015 the 00:14:33.079 --> 00:14:35.079 align:start position:0% don't work as I just said in 2015 the director<00:14:33.709> of<00:14:33.800> evidence-based<00:14:34.279> policy<00:14:34.910> and 00:14:35.079 --> 00:14:35.089 align:start position:0% director of evidence-based policy and 00:14:35.089 --> 00:14:37.240 align:start position:0% director of evidence-based policy and large<00:14:35.270> foundation<00:14:35.959> reviewed<00:14:36.680> a<00:14:36.740> huge<00:14:37.010> number 00:14:37.240 --> 00:14:37.250 align:start position:0% large foundation reviewed a huge number 00:14:37.250 --> 00:14:39.370 align:start position:0% large foundation reviewed a huge number of<00:14:37.459> RCTs<00:14:38.209> of<00:14:38.480> interventions<00:14:39.170> have<00:14:39.260> been 00:14:39.370 --> 00:14:39.380 align:start position:0% of RCTs of interventions have been 00:14:39.380 --> 00:14:43.180 align:start position:0% of RCTs of interventions have been tested<00:14:39.890> and<00:14:40.130> about<00:14:41.230> 75%<00:14:42.230> of<00:14:42.320> them<00:14:42.500> showed<00:14:42.829> no 00:14:43.180 --> 00:14:43.190 align:start position:0% tested and about 75% of them showed no 00:14:43.190 --> 00:14:46.240 align:start position:0% tested and about 75% of them showed no effect<00:14:43.339> or<00:14:43.790> a<00:14:43.820> very<00:14:44.089> small<00:14:44.510> effect<00:14:44.630> about<00:14:45.560> 10% 00:14:46.240 --> 00:14:46.250 align:start position:0% effect or a very small effect about 10% 00:14:46.250 --> 00:14:48.540 align:start position:0% effect or a very small effect about 10% of<00:14:46.310> them<00:14:46.490> had<00:14:46.790> a<00:14:46.820> negative<00:14:47.029> effect<00:14:47.390> so 00:14:48.540 --> 00:14:48.550 align:start position:0% of them had a negative effect so 00:14:48.550 --> 00:14:50.590 align:start position:0% of them had a negative effect so plausibly<00:14:49.550> you<00:14:49.730> can<00:14:49.880> just<00:14:50.149> sort<00:14:50.240> of<00:14:50.329> forget 00:14:50.590 --> 00:14:50.600 align:start position:0% plausibly you can just sort of forget 00:14:50.600 --> 00:14:52.120 align:start position:0% plausibly you can just sort of forget 3/4<00:14:51.350> of<00:14:51.380> the<00:14:51.560> things<00:14:51.770> you<00:14:51.920> might<00:14:52.010> have 00:14:52.120 --> 00:14:52.130 align:start position:0% 3/4 of the things you might have 00:14:52.130 --> 00:14:54.310 align:start position:0% 3/4 of the things you might have invested<00:14:52.550> in<00:14:52.670> that<00:14:53.510> still<00:14:53.779> leaves<00:14:53.959> another 00:14:54.310 --> 00:14:54.320 align:start position:0% invested in that still leaves another 00:14:54.320 --> 00:14:56.980 align:start position:0% invested in that still leaves another quarter<00:14:54.850> however<00:14:55.850> it's<00:14:56.120> plausible<00:14:56.390> that<00:14:56.810> only 00:14:56.980 --> 00:14:56.990 align:start position:0% quarter however it's plausible that only 00:14:56.990 --> 00:14:59.260 align:start position:0% quarter however it's plausible that only a<00:14:57.079> tiny<00:14:57.410> fraction<00:14:57.829> of<00:14:58.070> that<00:14:58.279> will<00:14:58.760> actually<00:14:58.910> do 00:14:59.260 --> 00:14:59.270 align:start position:0% a tiny fraction of that will actually do 00:14:59.270 --> 00:15:03.040 align:start position:0% a tiny fraction of that will actually do an<00:14:59.450> enormous<00:14:59.899> amount<00:15:00.110> of<00:15:00.230> good<00:15:00.820> just<00:15:01.820> yes<00:15:02.420> for 00:15:03.040 --> 00:15:03.050 align:start position:0% an enormous amount of good just yes for 00:15:03.050 --> 00:15:05.949 align:start position:0% an enormous amount of good just yes for example<00:15:03.680> it's<00:15:04.550> estimated<00:15:05.029> that<00:15:05.390> a<00:15:05.450> charity 00:15:05.949 --> 00:15:05.959 align:start position:0% example it's estimated that a charity 00:15:05.959 --> 00:15:07.720 align:start position:0% example it's estimated that a charity called<00:15:06.230> the<00:15:06.320> against<00:15:06.740> malaria<00:15:06.980> foundation 00:15:07.720 --> 00:15:07.730 align:start position:0% called the against malaria foundation 00:15:07.730 --> 00:15:10.750 align:start position:0% called the against malaria foundation can<00:15:08.390> create<00:15:08.779> the<00:15:08.899> benefit<00:15:09.380> of<00:15:09.560> one<00:15:10.459> year<00:15:10.730> of 00:15:10.750 --> 00:15:10.760 align:start position:0% can create the benefit of one year of 00:15:10.760 --> 00:15:14.920 align:start position:0% can create the benefit of one year of extra<00:15:11.149> healthy<00:15:11.540> life<00:15:12.260> for<00:15:12.829> about<00:15:12.980> $100<00:15:13.870> if<00:15:14.870> you 00:15:14.920 --> 00:15:14.930 align:start position:0% extra healthy life for about $100 if you 00:15:14.930 --> 00:15:16.829 align:start position:0% extra healthy life for about $100 if you focus<00:15:15.440> on<00:15:15.529> a<00:15:15.589> slightly<00:15:15.950> different<00:15:16.399> area 00:15:16.829 --> 00:15:16.839 align:start position:0% focus on a slightly different area 00:15:16.839 --> 00:15:19.540 align:start position:0% focus on a slightly different area treatment<00:15:17.839> of<00:15:17.990> a<00:15:18.110> particular<00:15:18.410> sarcoma<00:15:19.310> that 00:15:19.540 --> 00:15:19.550 align:start position:0% treatment of a particular sarcoma that 00:15:19.550 --> 00:15:21.310 align:start position:0% treatment of a particular sarcoma that also<00:15:19.730> occurs<00:15:20.149> in<00:15:20.300> the<00:15:20.360> developing<00:15:20.810> world<00:15:21.050> the 00:15:21.310 --> 00:15:21.320 align:start position:0% also occurs in the developing world the 00:15:21.320 --> 00:15:24.720 align:start position:0% also occurs in the developing world the same<00:15:22.040> benefit<00:15:22.610> would<00:15:23.060> cost<00:15:23.270> about<00:15:23.709> $50,000 00:15:24.720 --> 00:15:24.730 align:start position:0% same benefit would cost about $50,000 00:15:24.730 --> 00:15:27.610 align:start position:0% same benefit would cost about $50,000 the<00:15:25.730> contrast<00:15:26.149> is<00:15:26.270> more<00:15:26.480> stark<00:15:26.810> if<00:15:27.050> you<00:15:27.290> sort 00:15:27.610 --> 00:15:27.620 align:start position:0% the contrast is more stark if you sort 00:15:27.620 --> 00:15:30.300 align:start position:0% the contrast is more stark if you sort of<00:15:27.680> widen<00:15:27.980> the<00:15:28.279> lens<00:15:28.310> to<00:15:28.790> developed<00:15:29.630> countries 00:15:30.300 --> 00:15:30.310 align:start position:0% of widen the lens to developed countries 00:15:30.310 --> 00:15:34.060 align:start position:0% of widen the lens to developed countries some<00:15:31.310> US<00:15:32.120> government<00:15:32.630> departments<00:15:33.199> spend 00:15:34.060 --> 00:15:34.070 align:start position:0% some US government departments spend 00:15:34.070 --> 00:15:36.100 align:start position:0% some US government departments spend around<00:15:34.220> 7<00:15:34.760> million<00:15:35.060> on<00:15:35.390> safe 00:15:36.100 --> 00:15:36.110 align:start position:0% around 7 million on safe 00:15:36.110 --> 00:15:39.009 align:start position:0% around 7 million on safe the<00:15:36.200> ark<00:15:36.709> safety<00:15:37.430> infrastructure<00:15:38.089> for 00:15:39.009 --> 00:15:39.019 align:start position:0% the ark safety infrastructure for 00:15:39.019 --> 00:15:41.079 align:start position:0% the ark safety infrastructure for getting<00:15:39.470> the<00:15:39.560> benefit<00:15:39.980> of<00:15:40.010> an<00:15:40.370> extra<00:15:40.940> life 00:15:41.079 --> 00:15:41.089 align:start position:0% getting the benefit of an extra life 00:15:41.089 --> 00:15:43.930 align:start position:0% getting the benefit of an extra life saved<00:15:41.589> the<00:15:42.589> most<00:15:42.769> cost<00:15:43.040> effective<00:15:43.160> Charities 00:15:43.930 --> 00:15:43.940 align:start position:0% saved the most cost effective Charities 00:15:43.940 --> 00:15:46.269 align:start position:0% saved the most cost effective Charities in<00:15:44.209> global<00:15:44.750> health<00:15:44.899> can<00:15:45.769> produce<00:15:45.980> that<00:15:46.220> same 00:15:46.269 --> 00:15:46.279 align:start position:0% in global health can produce that same 00:15:46.279 --> 00:15:52.120 align:start position:0% in global health can produce that same benefit<00:15:46.940> for<00:15:47.209> around<00:15:47.950> $3500<00:15:49.630> so<00:15:50.769> the<00:15:51.769> broader 00:15:52.120 --> 00:15:52.130 align:start position:0% benefit for around $3500 so the broader 00:15:52.130 --> 00:15:54.880 align:start position:0% benefit for around $3500 so the broader point<00:15:52.940> is<00:15:53.360> not<00:15:53.720> simply<00:15:54.260> what<00:15:54.440> we<00:15:54.529> should<00:15:54.709> fund 00:15:54.880 --> 00:15:54.890 align:start position:0% point is not simply what we should fund 00:15:54.890 --> 00:15:56.170 align:start position:0% point is not simply what we should fund this<00:15:55.040> intervention<00:15:55.670> rather<00:15:55.790> than<00:15:55.940> that 00:15:56.170 --> 00:15:56.180 align:start position:0% this intervention rather than that 00:15:56.180 --> 00:15:58.720 align:start position:0% this intervention rather than that intervention<00:15:56.839> but<00:15:57.500> these<00:15:57.829> really<00:15:58.250> really 00:15:58.720 --> 00:15:58.730 align:start position:0% intervention but these really really 00:15:58.730 --> 00:16:00.910 align:start position:0% intervention but these really really stark<00:15:59.209> differences<00:15:59.990> in<00:16:00.140> effectiveness<00:16:00.589> are 00:16:00.910 --> 00:16:00.920 align:start position:0% stark differences in effectiveness are 00:16:00.920 --> 00:16:03.819 align:start position:0% stark differences in effectiveness are possible<00:16:01.459> and<00:16:01.850> this<00:16:02.630> should<00:16:02.839> give<00:16:03.410> us<00:16:03.589> pause 00:16:03.819 --> 00:16:03.829 align:start position:0% possible and this should give us pause 00:16:03.829 --> 00:16:06.370 align:start position:0% possible and this should give us pause and<00:16:04.190> make<00:16:04.279> us<00:16:04.850> think<00:16:05.000> well<00:16:05.180> this<00:16:05.750> is<00:16:05.930> a<00:16:05.959> bit<00:16:06.170> odd 00:16:06.370 --> 00:16:06.380 align:start position:0% and make us think well this is a bit odd 00:16:06.380 --> 00:16:07.990 align:start position:0% and make us think well this is a bit odd maybe<00:16:06.890> we<00:16:07.100> should<00:16:07.279> think<00:16:07.459> really<00:16:07.850> really 00:16:07.990 --> 00:16:08.000 align:start position:0% maybe we should think really really 00:16:08.000 --> 00:16:10.120 align:start position:0% maybe we should think really really carefully<00:16:08.930> about<00:16:08.959> the<00:16:09.320> actions<00:16:09.680> that<00:16:09.769> we<00:16:09.950> take 00:16:10.120 --> 00:16:10.130 align:start position:0% carefully about the actions that we take 00:16:10.130 --> 00:16:12.880 align:start position:0% carefully about the actions that we take so<00:16:10.579> we<00:16:10.700> don't<00:16:10.850> end<00:16:11.029> up<00:16:11.209> wasting<00:16:11.870> most<00:16:12.589> of<00:16:12.769> our 00:16:12.880 --> 00:16:12.890 align:start position:0% so we don't end up wasting most of our 00:16:12.890 --> 00:16:15.460 align:start position:0% so we don't end up wasting most of our potential<00:16:13.220> impact<00:16:13.760> and<00:16:14.750> maybe<00:16:14.990> we<00:16:15.170> should<00:16:15.200> ask 00:16:15.460 --> 00:16:15.470 align:start position:0% potential impact and maybe we should ask 00:16:15.470 --> 00:16:17.410 align:start position:0% potential impact and maybe we should ask ourselves<00:16:15.680> what<00:16:16.490> are<00:16:16.579> the<00:16:16.610> problems<00:16:17.120> that<00:16:17.209> we 00:16:17.410 --> 00:16:17.420 align:start position:0% ourselves what are the problems that we 00:16:17.420 --> 00:16:19.269 align:start position:0% ourselves what are the problems that we should<00:16:17.600> be<00:16:17.690> working<00:16:17.899> on<00:16:18.260> in<00:16:18.470> the<00:16:18.769> first<00:16:18.980> place 00:16:19.269 --> 00:16:19.279 align:start position:0% should be working on in the first place 00:16:19.279 --> 00:16:23.889 align:start position:0% should be working on in the first place I<00:16:21.160> find<00:16:22.160> this<00:16:22.250> a<00:16:22.310> pretty<00:16:22.550> useful<00:16:23.450> framework 00:16:23.889 --> 00:16:23.899 align:start position:0% I find this a pretty useful framework 00:16:23.899 --> 00:16:26.230 align:start position:0% I find this a pretty useful framework for<00:16:24.560> thinking<00:16:24.769> about<00:16:25.010> which<00:16:25.370> problems<00:16:25.880> to 00:16:26.230 --> 00:16:26.240 align:start position:0% for thinking about which problems to 00:16:26.240 --> 00:16:28.930 align:start position:0% for thinking about which problems to work<00:16:26.390> on<00:16:26.630> it's<00:16:27.529> it's<00:16:27.680> pretty<00:16:27.860> simple<00:16:28.310> you'll 00:16:28.930 --> 00:16:28.940 align:start position:0% work on it's it's pretty simple you'll 00:16:28.940 --> 00:16:31.480 align:start position:0% work on it's it's pretty simple you'll have<00:16:29.149> more<00:16:29.360> impact<00:16:29.930> on<00:16:30.200> a<00:16:30.260> problem<00:16:30.709> the<00:16:31.220> bigger 00:16:31.480 --> 00:16:31.490 align:start position:0% have more impact on a problem the bigger 00:16:31.490 --> 00:16:34.180 align:start position:0% have more impact on a problem the bigger it<00:16:31.670> is<00:16:31.820> the<00:16:32.600> more<00:16:32.630> solvable<00:16:33.200> it<00:16:33.410> is<00:16:33.589> and<00:16:33.800> the 00:16:34.180 --> 00:16:34.190 align:start position:0% it is the more solvable it is and the 00:16:34.190 --> 00:16:37.780 align:start position:0% it is the more solvable it is and the more<00:16:34.220> neglected<00:16:34.519> it<00:16:35.029> is<00:16:35.800> so<00:16:36.800> the<00:16:37.339> bigger<00:16:37.550> it<00:16:37.760> is 00:16:37.780 --> 00:16:37.790 align:start position:0% more neglected it is so the bigger it is 00:16:37.790 --> 00:16:40.329 align:start position:0% more neglected it is so the bigger it is this<00:16:38.060> is<00:16:38.209> pretty<00:16:38.510> obvious<00:16:38.750> say<00:16:39.620> we<00:16:39.860> want<00:16:40.100> to 00:16:40.329 --> 00:16:40.339 align:start position:0% this is pretty obvious say we want to 00:16:40.339 --> 00:16:43.660 align:start position:0% this is pretty obvious say we want to end<00:16:41.140> factory<00:16:42.140> farming<00:16:42.500> it<00:16:43.070> would<00:16:43.250> be<00:16:43.399> better 00:16:43.660 --> 00:16:43.670 align:start position:0% end factory farming it would be better 00:16:43.670 --> 00:16:45.939 align:start position:0% end factory farming it would be better if<00:16:44.060> we<00:16:44.269> ended<00:16:44.600> factory<00:16:44.990> farming<00:16:45.350> in<00:16:45.500> China 00:16:45.939 --> 00:16:45.949 align:start position:0% if we ended factory farming in China 00:16:45.949 --> 00:16:48.040 align:start position:0% if we ended factory farming in China rather<00:16:46.490> than<00:16:46.730> in<00:16:46.940> say<00:16:47.180> the<00:16:47.209> Czech<00:16:47.540> Republic 00:16:48.040 --> 00:16:48.050 align:start position:0% rather than in say the Czech Republic 00:16:48.050 --> 00:16:51.460 align:start position:0% rather than in say the Czech Republic because<00:16:48.500> more<00:16:48.829> individuals<00:16:49.459> are<00:16:49.670> affected<00:16:50.470> in 00:16:51.460 --> 00:16:51.470 align:start position:0% because more individuals are affected in 00:16:51.470 --> 00:16:54.250 align:start position:0% because more individuals are affected in terms<00:16:51.769> of<00:16:51.920> solve<00:16:52.279> ability<00:16:52.839> we<00:16:53.839> could<00:16:53.990> think<00:16:54.170> of 00:16:54.250 --> 00:16:54.260 align:start position:0% terms of solve ability we could think of 00:16:54.260 --> 00:16:56.860 align:start position:0% terms of solve ability we could think of some<00:16:54.470> problems<00:16:54.920> that<00:16:55.100> are<00:16:55.190> really<00:16:55.399> huge<00:16:55.910> such 00:16:56.860 --> 00:16:56.870 align:start position:0% some problems that are really huge such 00:16:56.870 --> 00:16:59.800 align:start position:0% some problems that are really huge such as<00:16:57.110> aging<00:16:57.380> or<00:16:57.860> such<00:16:58.610> as<00:16:58.850> an<00:16:59.029> asteroid<00:16:59.449> hitting 00:16:59.800 --> 00:16:59.810 align:start position:0% as aging or such as an asteroid hitting 00:16:59.810 --> 00:17:02.110 align:start position:0% as aging or such as an asteroid hitting the<00:16:59.990> earth<00:17:00.110> and<00:17:00.589> these<00:17:01.310> are<00:17:01.459> enormous<00:17:01.850> in 00:17:02.110 --> 00:17:02.120 align:start position:0% the earth and these are enormous in 00:17:02.120 --> 00:17:05.110 align:start position:0% the earth and these are enormous in scale<00:17:02.449> but<00:17:03.260> seem<00:17:03.860> relative<00:17:04.819> to<00:17:04.970> other 00:17:05.110 --> 00:17:05.120 align:start position:0% scale but seem relative to other 00:17:05.120 --> 00:17:09.189 align:start position:0% scale but seem relative to other problems<00:17:05.660> less<00:17:06.230> solvable<00:17:07.780> in<00:17:08.780> terms<00:17:09.079> of 00:17:09.189 --> 00:17:09.199 align:start position:0% problems less solvable in terms of 00:17:09.199 --> 00:17:11.650 align:start position:0% problems less solvable in terms of neglected<00:17:09.740> nurse<00:17:09.919> all<00:17:10.910> things<00:17:11.299> being<00:17:11.540> equal 00:17:11.650 --> 00:17:11.660 align:start position:0% neglected nurse all things being equal 00:17:11.660 --> 00:17:14.530 align:start position:0% neglected nurse all things being equal we<00:17:12.319> want<00:17:12.530> to<00:17:12.679> work<00:17:13.189> on<00:17:13.490> problems<00:17:14.179> that<00:17:14.419> are 00:17:14.530 --> 00:17:14.540 align:start position:0% we want to work on problems that are 00:17:14.540 --> 00:17:16.840 align:start position:0% we want to work on problems that are relatively<00:17:15.230> neglected<00:17:15.350> because<00:17:16.339> the<00:17:16.669> less 00:17:16.840 --> 00:17:16.850 align:start position:0% relatively neglected because the less 00:17:16.850 --> 00:17:18.340 align:start position:0% relatively neglected because the less time<00:17:17.209> and<00:17:17.360> effort<00:17:17.689> that<00:17:17.720> has<00:17:17.900> already<00:17:18.049> gone 00:17:18.340 --> 00:17:18.350 align:start position:0% time and effort that has already gone 00:17:18.350 --> 00:17:20.289 align:start position:0% time and effort that has already gone into<00:17:18.589> these<00:17:18.709> problems<00:17:19.160> the<00:17:19.730> more<00:17:19.910> likely 00:17:20.289 --> 00:17:20.299 align:start position:0% into these problems the more likely 00:17:20.299 --> 00:17:21.789 align:start position:0% into these problems the more likely it'll<00:17:20.419> be<00:17:20.569> that<00:17:20.720> there's<00:17:20.900> low-hanging<00:17:21.410> fruit 00:17:21.789 --> 00:17:21.799 align:start position:0% it'll be that there's low-hanging fruit 00:17:21.799 --> 00:17:24.929 align:start position:0% it'll be that there's low-hanging fruit that<00:17:21.980> we<00:17:22.100> can<00:17:22.280> sort<00:17:22.610> of<00:17:22.640> swoop<00:17:22.910> in<00:17:23.150> and<00:17:23.329> take 00:17:24.929 --> 00:17:24.939 align:start position:0% that we can sort of swoop in and take 00:17:24.939 --> 00:17:28.570 align:start position:0% that we can sort of swoop in and take for<00:17:25.939> example<00:17:26.199> climate<00:17:27.199> change<00:17:27.620> is<00:17:27.890> an 00:17:28.570 --> 00:17:28.580 align:start position:0% for example climate change is an 00:17:28.580 --> 00:17:31.120 align:start position:0% for example climate change is an extremely<00:17:29.179> large<00:17:29.510> problem<00:17:30.080> on<00:17:30.679> a<00:17:30.740> global 00:17:31.120 --> 00:17:31.130 align:start position:0% extremely large problem on a global 00:17:31.130 --> 00:17:33.820 align:start position:0% extremely large problem on a global scale<00:17:31.400> we<00:17:32.240> seem<00:17:32.480> to<00:17:32.510> have<00:17:32.720> reason<00:17:33.500> to<00:17:33.620> think 00:17:33.820 --> 00:17:33.830 align:start position:0% scale we seem to have reason to think 00:17:33.830 --> 00:17:36.100 align:start position:0% scale we seem to have reason to think that<00:17:34.100> it's<00:17:34.610> pretty<00:17:35.000> solvable<00:17:35.660> there<00:17:36.020> are 00:17:36.100 --> 00:17:36.110 align:start position:0% that it's pretty solvable there are 00:17:36.110 --> 00:17:38.289 align:start position:0% that it's pretty solvable there are things<00:17:36.290> we<00:17:36.410> can<00:17:36.559> do<00:17:36.740> about<00:17:37.010> it<00:17:37.299> however 00:17:38.289 --> 00:17:38.299 align:start position:0% things we can do about it however 00:17:38.299 --> 00:17:41.260 align:start position:0% things we can do about it however relative<00:17:38.990> to<00:17:39.230> other<00:17:39.500> problems<00:17:40.130> of<00:17:40.370> similar 00:17:41.260 --> 00:17:41.270 align:start position:0% relative to other problems of similar 00:17:41.270 --> 00:17:44.310 align:start position:0% relative to other problems of similar scale<00:17:41.510> for<00:17:42.290> example<00:17:42.350> the<00:17:42.799> risks<00:17:43.160> posed<00:17:43.460> by 00:17:44.310 --> 00:17:44.320 align:start position:0% scale for example the risks posed by 00:17:44.320 --> 00:17:47.230 align:start position:0% scale for example the risks posed by artificially<00:17:45.320> engineered<00:17:45.440> viruses<00:17:46.190> it<00:17:46.520> is 00:17:47.230 --> 00:17:47.240 align:start position:0% artificially engineered viruses it is 00:17:47.240 --> 00:17:49.200 align:start position:0% artificially engineered viruses it is comparatively<00:17:48.020> not<00:17:48.770> neglect 00:17:49.200 --> 00:17:49.210 align:start position:0% comparatively not neglect 00:17:49.210 --> 00:17:52.740 align:start position:0% comparatively not neglect it<00:17:49.740> this<00:17:50.740> is<00:17:50.919> just<00:17:50.950> a<00:17:51.279> framework<00:17:51.520> and<00:17:51.880> there 00:17:52.740 --> 00:17:52.750 align:start position:0% it this is just a framework and there 00:17:52.750 --> 00:17:54.870 align:start position:0% it this is just a framework and there are<00:17:52.840> no<00:17:52.990> conclusions<00:17:53.890> built<00:17:54.130> into<00:17:54.429> it<00:17:54.580> and<00:17:54.700> the 00:17:54.870 --> 00:17:54.880 align:start position:0% are no conclusions built into it and the 00:17:54.880 --> 00:17:57.450 align:start position:0% are no conclusions built into it and the framework<00:17:55.240> itself<00:17:55.419> is<00:17:55.870> not<00:17:56.049> immutable<00:17:56.559> but<00:17:57.279> a 00:17:57.450 --> 00:17:57.460 align:start position:0% framework itself is not immutable but a 00:17:57.460 --> 00:17:59.549 align:start position:0% framework itself is not immutable but a number<00:17:57.909> of<00:17:58.029> researchers<00:17:58.419> over<00:17:58.809> a<00:17:59.049> number<00:17:59.470> of 00:17:59.549 --> 00:17:59.559 align:start position:0% number of researchers over a number of 00:17:59.559 --> 00:18:01.500 align:start position:0% number of researchers over a number of years<00:17:59.860> have<00:18:00.159> converged<00:18:00.610> on<00:18:00.820> some<00:18:01.029> areas<00:18:01.360> that 00:18:01.500 --> 00:18:01.510 align:start position:0% years have converged on some areas that 00:18:01.510 --> 00:18:04.560 align:start position:0% years have converged on some areas that seem<00:18:01.750> really<00:18:02.169> important<00:18:02.909> so<00:18:03.909> for<00:18:04.120> example 00:18:04.560 --> 00:18:04.570 align:start position:0% seem really important so for example 00:18:04.570 --> 00:18:07.200 align:start position:0% seem really important so for example Global<00:18:05.380> Health<00:18:05.559> this<00:18:06.250> is<00:18:06.490> in<00:18:06.669> many<00:18:06.940> ways<00:18:07.029> a 00:18:07.200 --> 00:18:07.210 align:start position:0% Global Health this is in many ways a 00:18:07.210 --> 00:18:09.810 align:start position:0% Global Health this is in many ways a really<00:18:07.630> messy<00:18:08.080> and<00:18:08.110> complex<00:18:08.710> problem<00:18:09.159> but<00:18:09.700> in 00:18:09.810 --> 00:18:09.820 align:start position:0% really messy and complex problem but in 00:18:09.820 --> 00:18:12.570 align:start position:0% really messy and complex problem but in others<00:18:10.120> pretty<00:18:10.899> solvable<00:18:11.529> there<00:18:12.130> are<00:18:12.279> things 00:18:12.570 --> 00:18:12.580 align:start position:0% others pretty solvable there are things 00:18:12.580 --> 00:18:14.669 align:start position:0% others pretty solvable there are things there<00:18:12.940> are<00:18:13.090> diseases<00:18:13.659> that<00:18:13.990> we<00:18:14.080> know<00:18:14.380> how<00:18:14.649> to 00:18:14.669 --> 00:18:14.679 align:start position:0% there are diseases that we know how to 00:18:14.679 --> 00:18:18.029 align:start position:0% there are diseases that we know how to treat<00:18:15.070> cheaply<00:18:15.669> and<00:18:16.000> if<00:18:16.809> we<00:18:17.409> were<00:18:17.590> to<00:18:17.740> fund 00:18:18.029 --> 00:18:18.039 align:start position:0% treat cheaply and if we were to fund 00:18:18.039 --> 00:18:20.159 align:start position:0% treat cheaply and if we were to fund those<00:18:18.309> cheap<00:18:18.580> interventions<00:18:19.299> lives<00:18:19.779> would<00:18:20.049> be 00:18:20.159 --> 00:18:20.169 align:start position:0% those cheap interventions lives would be 00:18:20.169 --> 00:18:21.080 align:start position:0% those cheap interventions lives would be saved 00:18:21.080 --> 00:18:21.090 align:start position:0% saved 00:18:21.090 --> 00:18:24.419 align:start position:0% saved another<00:18:22.090> example<00:18:22.270> factory<00:18:23.230> farming<00:18:23.620> or 00:18:24.419 --> 00:18:24.429 align:start position:0% another example factory farming or 00:18:24.429 --> 00:18:26.850 align:start position:0% another example factory farming or possibly<00:18:25.299> up<00:18:25.480> to<00:18:25.690> a<00:18:25.720> hundred<00:18:26.169> billion<00:18:26.500> animals 00:18:26.850 --> 00:18:26.860 align:start position:0% possibly up to a hundred billion animals 00:18:26.860 --> 00:18:29.159 align:start position:0% possibly up to a hundred billion animals every<00:18:27.399> year<00:18:27.429> erased<00:18:28.000> on<00:18:28.179> factory<00:18:28.630> farms<00:18:28.809> in 00:18:29.159 --> 00:18:29.169 align:start position:0% every year erased on factory farms in 00:18:29.169 --> 00:18:31.289 align:start position:0% every year erased on factory farms in conditions<00:18:29.350> likely<00:18:29.919> to<00:18:30.159> cause<00:18:30.370> some<00:18:30.610> extreme 00:18:31.289 --> 00:18:31.299 align:start position:0% conditions likely to cause some extreme 00:18:31.299 --> 00:18:33.570 align:start position:0% conditions likely to cause some extreme levels<00:18:31.720> of<00:18:31.870> suffering<00:18:32.080> not<00:18:33.010> to<00:18:33.159> mention<00:18:33.309> the 00:18:33.570 --> 00:18:33.580 align:start position:0% levels of suffering not to mention the 00:18:33.580 --> 00:18:35.850 align:start position:0% levels of suffering not to mention the effect<00:18:33.850> on<00:18:34.059> climate<00:18:34.570> on<00:18:34.720> human<00:18:35.380> health<00:18:35.590> on 00:18:35.850 --> 00:18:35.860 align:start position:0% effect on climate on human health on 00:18:35.860 --> 00:18:39.419 align:start position:0% effect on climate on human health on antibiotic<00:18:36.490> resistance<00:18:36.940> etc<00:18:37.950> we<00:18:38.950> know<00:18:39.159> that 00:18:39.419 --> 00:18:39.429 align:start position:0% antibiotic resistance etc we know that 00:18:39.429 --> 00:18:41.610 align:start position:0% antibiotic resistance etc we know that there<00:18:39.610> are<00:18:39.640> interventions<00:18:40.480> that<00:18:40.960> work<00:18:41.230> and 00:18:41.610 --> 00:18:41.620 align:start position:0% there are interventions that work and 00:18:41.620 --> 00:18:45.060 align:start position:0% there are interventions that work and yet<00:18:42.520> last<00:18:42.730> year<00:18:43.149> collectively<00:18:43.990> as<00:18:44.289> humanity 00:18:45.060 --> 00:18:45.070 align:start position:0% yet last year collectively as humanity 00:18:45.070 --> 00:18:47.820 align:start position:0% yet last year collectively as humanity we<00:18:45.820> spent<00:18:46.120> more<00:18:46.419> money<00:18:46.480> going<00:18:47.200> to<00:18:47.320> see<00:18:47.470> a<00:18:47.500> film 00:18:47.820 --> 00:18:47.830 align:start position:0% we spent more money going to see a film 00:18:47.830 --> 00:18:50.460 align:start position:0% we spent more money going to see a film called<00:18:48.309> sausage<00:18:48.760> party<00:18:49.240> which<00:18:49.750> is<00:18:49.960> about<00:18:50.200> an 00:18:50.460 --> 00:18:50.470 align:start position:0% called sausage party which is about an 00:18:50.470 --> 00:18:53.519 align:start position:0% called sausage party which is about an anthropomorphised<00:18:51.399> sausage<00:18:52.120> than<00:18:52.809> we<00:18:52.960> did<00:18:53.200> on 00:18:53.519 --> 00:18:53.529 align:start position:0% anthropomorphised sausage than we did on 00:18:53.529 --> 00:18:56.639 align:start position:0% anthropomorphised sausage than we did on all<00:18:54.240> charities<00:18:55.240> working<00:18:55.720> to<00:18:56.080> end<00:18:56.200> factory 00:18:56.639 --> 00:18:56.649 align:start position:0% all charities working to end factory 00:18:56.649 --> 00:18:59.039 align:start position:0% all charities working to end factory farming<00:18:57.010> this<00:18:57.700> is<00:18:57.820> a<00:18:57.880> an<00:18:58.240> appallingly 00:18:59.039 --> 00:18:59.049 align:start position:0% farming this is a an appallingly 00:18:59.049 --> 00:19:01.710 align:start position:0% farming this is a an appallingly neglected<00:18:59.710> problem<00:19:00.100> and<00:19:00.539> then<00:19:01.539> there's<00:19:01.690> a 00:19:01.710 --> 00:19:01.720 align:start position:0% neglected problem and then there's a 00:19:01.720 --> 00:19:04.529 align:start position:0% neglected problem and then there's a whole<00:19:01.929> sort<00:19:02.529> of<00:19:02.649> bucket<00:19:03.279> of<00:19:03.460> problems<00:19:04.210> related 00:19:04.529 --> 00:19:04.539 align:start position:0% whole sort of bucket of problems related 00:19:04.539 --> 00:19:07.980 align:start position:0% whole sort of bucket of problems related to<00:19:05.110> reducing<00:19:06.039> existential<00:19:06.730> risk<00:19:06.940> that<00:19:07.779> is 00:19:07.980 --> 00:19:07.990 align:start position:0% to reducing existential risk that is 00:19:07.990 --> 00:19:10.350 align:start position:0% to reducing existential risk that is reducing<00:19:08.890> the<00:19:09.039> chance<00:19:09.309> of<00:19:09.549> an<00:19:09.700> event<00:19:10.000> that 00:19:10.350 --> 00:19:10.360 align:start position:0% reducing the chance of an event that 00:19:10.360 --> 00:19:12.810 align:start position:0% reducing the chance of an event that could<00:19:10.570> permanently<00:19:11.169> end<00:19:11.950> intelligent<00:19:12.700> life 00:19:12.810 --> 00:19:12.820 align:start position:0% could permanently end intelligent life 00:19:12.820 --> 00:19:15.269 align:start position:0% could permanently end intelligent life on<00:19:13.000> earth<00:19:13.179> or<00:19:13.590> drastically<00:19:14.590> and<00:19:14.770> permanently 00:19:15.269 --> 00:19:15.279 align:start position:0% on earth or drastically and permanently 00:19:15.279 --> 00:19:17.880 align:start position:0% on earth or drastically and permanently curtail<00:19:15.789> its<00:19:16.029> potential<00:19:16.600> a<00:19:16.750> little<00:19:17.710> bit<00:19:17.799> of 00:19:17.880 --> 00:19:17.890 align:start position:0% curtail its potential a little bit of 00:19:17.890 --> 00:19:21.090 align:start position:0% curtail its potential a little bit of context<00:19:18.399> on<00:19:18.520> this<00:19:19.049> so<00:19:20.049> this<00:19:20.289> is<00:19:20.500> a<00:19:20.529> graph<00:19:20.799> of 00:19:21.090 --> 00:19:21.100 align:start position:0% context on this so this is a graph of 00:19:21.100 --> 00:19:25.620 align:start position:0% context on this so this is a graph of GDP<00:19:22.059> per<00:19:22.090> capita<00:19:22.830> over<00:19:23.830> recorded<00:19:24.429> history<00:19:24.640> as 00:19:25.620 --> 00:19:25.630 align:start position:0% GDP per capita over recorded history as 00:19:25.630 --> 00:19:28.049 align:start position:0% GDP per capita over recorded history as you<00:19:26.169> can<00:19:26.350> see<00:19:26.529> for<00:19:26.830> a<00:19:26.890> long<00:19:26.950> time<00:19:27.370> pretty<00:19:27.940> much 00:19:28.049 --> 00:19:28.059 align:start position:0% you can see for a long time pretty much 00:19:28.059 --> 00:19:30.210 align:start position:0% you can see for a long time pretty much nothing<00:19:28.630> happened<00:19:29.320> that<00:19:29.559> was<00:19:29.740> really<00:19:30.010> boring 00:19:30.210 --> 00:19:30.220 align:start position:0% nothing happened that was really boring 00:19:30.220 --> 00:19:33.320 align:start position:0% nothing happened that was really boring and<00:19:30.600> everyone<00:19:31.600> was<00:19:31.750> really<00:19:31.899> poor<00:19:32.260> was 00:19:33.320 --> 00:19:33.330 align:start position:0% and everyone was really poor was 00:19:33.330 --> 00:19:35.190 align:start position:0% and everyone was really poor was unthinkable<00:19:34.330> that<00:19:34.419> you<00:19:34.539> could<00:19:34.690> affect<00:19:34.960> things 00:19:35.190 --> 00:19:35.200 align:start position:0% unthinkable that you could affect things 00:19:35.200 --> 00:19:36.930 align:start position:0% unthinkable that you could affect things the<00:19:35.409> other<00:19:35.529> side<00:19:35.740> of<00:19:35.860> the<00:19:35.919> country<00:19:36.429> let<00:19:36.789> alone 00:19:36.930 --> 00:19:36.940 align:start position:0% the other side of the country let alone 00:19:36.940 --> 00:19:39.049 align:start position:0% the other side of the country let alone the<00:19:37.090> other<00:19:37.210> side<00:19:37.450> of<00:19:37.570> the<00:19:37.690> world<00:19:37.870> and<00:19:38.289> then 00:19:39.049 --> 00:19:39.059 align:start position:0% the other side of the world and then 00:19:39.059 --> 00:19:44.120 align:start position:0% the other side of the world and then something<00:19:40.059> happened<00:19:40.500> anyone<00:19:41.500> what<00:19:41.950> happened 00:19:44.120 --> 00:19:44.130 align:start position:0% something happened anyone what happened 00:19:44.130 --> 00:19:47.029 align:start position:0% something happened anyone what happened yes<00:19:45.130> the<00:19:45.520> Industrial<00:19:46.029> Revolution<00:19:46.090> and 00:19:47.029 --> 00:19:47.039 align:start position:0% yes the Industrial Revolution and 00:19:47.039 --> 00:19:48.899 align:start position:0% yes the Industrial Revolution and potentially<00:19:48.039> the<00:19:48.130> most<00:19:48.309> transformative 00:19:48.899 --> 00:19:48.909 align:start position:0% potentially the most transformative 00:19:48.909 --> 00:19:51.360 align:start position:0% potentially the most transformative event<00:19:49.330> in<00:19:49.510> recorded<00:19:50.049> history<00:19:50.169> so<00:19:51.070> it<00:19:51.159> wasn't 00:19:51.360 --> 00:19:51.370 align:start position:0% event in recorded history so it wasn't 00:19:51.370 --> 00:19:53.010 align:start position:0% event in recorded history so it wasn't just<00:19:51.429> GDP<00:19:52.000> that<00:19:52.179> shot<00:19:52.390> up<00:19:52.570> but<00:19:52.779> life 00:19:53.010 --> 00:19:53.020 align:start position:0% just GDP that shot up but life 00:19:53.020 --> 00:19:55.200 align:start position:0% just GDP that shot up but life expectancy<00:19:53.640> percentage<00:19:54.640> of<00:19:54.730> people<00:19:54.909> living 00:19:55.200 --> 00:19:55.210 align:start position:0% expectancy percentage of people living 00:19:55.210 --> 00:19:58.139 align:start position:0% expectancy percentage of people living in<00:19:55.360> a<00:19:55.450> democracy<00:19:55.720> an<00:19:56.350> energy<00:19:57.279> capture<00:19:57.970> per 00:19:58.139 --> 00:19:58.149 align:start position:0% in a democracy an energy capture per 00:19:58.149 --> 00:20:00.779 align:start position:0% in a democracy an energy capture per person<00:19:58.570> per<00:19:58.750> day<00:19:59.159> basically<00:20:00.159> life<00:20:00.370> got<00:20:00.610> better 00:20:00.779 --> 00:20:00.789 align:start position:0% person per day basically life got better 00:20:00.789 --> 00:20:03.320 align:start position:0% person per day basically life got better for<00:20:01.620> most 00:20:03.320 --> 00:20:03.330 align:start position:0% for most 00:20:03.330 --> 00:20:05.870 align:start position:0% for most however<00:20:04.170> what<00:20:04.410> also<00:20:04.590> shot<00:20:05.160> up<00:20:05.370> that 00:20:05.870 --> 00:20:05.880 align:start position:0% however what also shot up that 00:20:05.880 --> 00:20:08.690 align:start position:0% however what also shot up that ridiculous<00:20:06.330> rate<00:20:06.660> is<00:20:07.070> will<00:20:08.070> making<00:20:08.460> capacity 00:20:08.690 --> 00:20:08.700 align:start position:0% ridiculous rate is will making capacity 00:20:08.700 --> 00:20:11.810 align:start position:0% ridiculous rate is will making capacity as<00:20:09.300> a<00:20:09.360> historian<00:20:10.200> is<00:20:10.290> documented<00:20:10.820> so 00:20:11.810 --> 00:20:11.820 align:start position:0% as a historian is documented so 00:20:11.820 --> 00:20:13.670 align:start position:0% as a historian is documented so basically<00:20:12.240> every<00:20:12.630> time<00:20:12.660> we<00:20:13.080> invent<00:20:13.410> a<00:20:13.560> new 00:20:13.670 --> 00:20:13.680 align:start position:0% basically every time we invent a new 00:20:13.680 --> 00:20:16.040 align:start position:0% basically every time we invent a new technology<00:20:14.030> most<00:20:15.030> of<00:20:15.210> the<00:20:15.270> time<00:20:15.480> it<00:20:15.930> goes 00:20:16.040 --> 00:20:16.050 align:start position:0% technology most of the time it goes 00:20:16.050 --> 00:20:18.830 align:start position:0% technology most of the time it goes really<00:20:16.320> well<00:20:16.730> but<00:20:17.730> every<00:20:18.090> time<00:20:18.300> we<00:20:18.510> invent<00:20:18.750> a 00:20:18.830 --> 00:20:18.840 align:start position:0% really well but every time we invent a 00:20:18.840 --> 00:20:20.930 align:start position:0% really well but every time we invent a new<00:20:18.990> technology<00:20:19.140> there's<00:20:20.130> also<00:20:20.370> the<00:20:20.670> risk 00:20:20.930 --> 00:20:20.940 align:start position:0% new technology there's also the risk 00:20:20.940 --> 00:20:22.760 align:start position:0% new technology there's also the risk that<00:20:21.270> this<00:20:21.480> is<00:20:21.690> the<00:20:21.840> one<00:20:22.050> that<00:20:22.530> has<00:20:22.740> more 00:20:22.760 --> 00:20:22.770 align:start position:0% that this is the one that has more 00:20:22.770 --> 00:20:25.130 align:start position:0% that this is the one that has more destructive<00:20:23.190> power<00:20:23.850> than<00:20:24.150> we're<00:20:24.450> ready<00:20:24.720> to 00:20:25.130 --> 00:20:25.140 align:start position:0% destructive power than we're ready to 00:20:25.140 --> 00:20:28.190 align:start position:0% destructive power than we're ready to handle<00:20:25.560> and<00:20:25.770> if<00:20:26.610> we<00:20:26.730> look<00:20:26.880> back<00:20:27.120> over<00:20:27.420> the<00:20:28.050> last 00:20:28.190 --> 00:20:28.200 align:start position:0% handle and if we look back over the last 00:20:28.200 --> 00:20:31.340 align:start position:0% handle and if we look back over the last century<00:20:28.710> we<00:20:29.280> see<00:20:29.460> exactly<00:20:29.850> this<00:20:30.180> we<00:20:30.690> see<00:20:30.900> it<00:20:31.020> in 00:20:31.340 --> 00:20:31.350 align:start position:0% century we see exactly this we see it in 00:20:31.350 --> 00:20:33.470 align:start position:0% century we see exactly this we see it in the<00:20:32.100> number<00:20:32.370> of<00:20:32.400> nuclear<00:20:32.790> weapons<00:20:33.180> that<00:20:33.300> we 00:20:33.470 --> 00:20:33.480 align:start position:0% the number of nuclear weapons that we 00:20:33.480 --> 00:20:35.540 align:start position:0% the number of nuclear weapons that we have<00:20:33.660> on<00:20:33.870> hair-trigger<00:20:34.320> alert<00:20:34.470> if<00:20:35.280> you<00:20:35.400> want 00:20:35.540 --> 00:20:35.550 align:start position:0% have on hair-trigger alert if you want 00:20:35.550 --> 00:20:37.430 align:start position:0% have on hair-trigger alert if you want to<00:20:35.640> be<00:20:35.760> terrified<00:20:36.090> look<00:20:36.600> up<00:20:36.780> the<00:20:36.870> Wikipedia 00:20:37.430 --> 00:20:37.440 align:start position:0% to be terrified look up the Wikipedia 00:20:37.440 --> 00:20:38.960 align:start position:0% to be terrified look up the Wikipedia page<00:20:37.680> on<00:20:37.890> nuclear<00:20:38.310> near-misses 00:20:38.960 --> 00:20:38.970 align:start position:0% page on nuclear near-misses 00:20:38.970 --> 00:20:42.170 align:start position:0% page on nuclear near-misses it's<00:20:39.360> long<00:20:39.690> we<00:20:40.140> may<00:20:40.320> have<00:20:40.410> just<00:20:40.470> been<00:20:40.740> lucky<00:20:41.180> we 00:20:42.170 --> 00:20:42.180 align:start position:0% it's long we may have just been lucky we 00:20:42.180 --> 00:20:43.910 align:start position:0% it's long we may have just been lucky we also<00:20:42.330> see<00:20:42.660> potential<00:20:43.290> risks<00:20:43.590> posed<00:20:43.830> by 00:20:43.910 --> 00:20:43.920 align:start position:0% also see potential risks posed by 00:20:43.920 --> 00:20:45.980 align:start position:0% also see potential risks posed by extreme<00:20:44.340> climate<00:20:44.790> change<00:20:45.030> if<00:20:45.270> the<00:20:45.750> climate 00:20:45.980 --> 00:20:45.990 align:start position:0% extreme climate change if the climate 00:20:45.990 --> 00:20:47.630 align:start position:0% extreme climate change if the climate warms<00:20:46.350> by<00:20:46.500> more<00:20:46.680> than<00:20:46.770> 10<00:20:46.980> degrees<00:20:47.280> it's<00:20:47.460> game 00:20:47.630 --> 00:20:47.640 align:start position:0% warms by more than 10 degrees it's game 00:20:47.640 --> 00:20:48.140 align:start position:0% warms by more than 10 degrees it's game over 00:20:48.140 --> 00:20:48.150 align:start position:0% over 00:20:48.150 --> 00:20:50.840 align:start position:0% over and<00:20:48.300> looking<00:20:49.230> forward<00:20:49.530> we<00:20:50.130> should<00:20:50.310> expect<00:20:50.670> to 00:20:50.840 --> 00:20:50.850 align:start position:0% and looking forward we should expect to 00:20:50.850 --> 00:20:52.700 align:start position:0% and looking forward we should expect to see<00:20:50.970> this<00:20:51.090> pattern<00:20:51.300> continue<00:20:51.960> as<00:20:52.140> we<00:20:52.380> develop 00:20:52.700 --> 00:20:52.710 align:start position:0% see this pattern continue as we develop 00:20:52.710 --> 00:20:55.100 align:start position:0% see this pattern continue as we develop new<00:20:52.830> technologies<00:20:53.430> for<00:20:54.270> example<00:20:54.420> it<00:20:54.900> seems 00:20:55.100 --> 00:20:55.110 align:start position:0% new technologies for example it seems 00:20:55.110 --> 00:20:57.830 align:start position:0% new technologies for example it seems plausible<00:20:55.440> that<00:20:56.010> in<00:20:56.220> the<00:20:56.460> coming<00:20:56.760> decades<00:20:57.180> we 00:20:57.830 --> 00:20:57.840 align:start position:0% plausible that in the coming decades we 00:20:57.840 --> 00:20:59.780 align:start position:0% plausible that in the coming decades we are<00:20:57.960> going<00:20:58.230> to<00:20:58.380> be<00:20:58.500> able<00:20:58.620> to<00:20:58.920> engineer<00:20:59.040> a<00:20:59.340> virus 00:20:59.780 --> 00:20:59.790 align:start position:0% are going to be able to engineer a virus 00:20:59.790 --> 00:21:02.510 align:start position:0% are going to be able to engineer a virus that<00:21:00.000> is<00:21:00.390> as<00:21:00.660> contagious<00:21:01.140> as<00:21:01.410> a<00:21:01.470> flu<00:21:01.770> as<00:21:02.250> deadly 00:21:02.510 --> 00:21:02.520 align:start position:0% that is as contagious as a flu as deadly 00:21:02.520 --> 00:21:03.920 align:start position:0% that is as contagious as a flu as deadly as<00:21:02.760> Ebola<00:21:03.000> and<00:21:03.300> has<00:21:03.540> a<00:21:03.570> long<00:21:03.810> incubation 00:21:03.920 --> 00:21:03.930 align:start position:0% as Ebola and has a long incubation 00:21:03.930 --> 00:21:05.780 align:start position:0% as Ebola and has a long incubation period<00:21:04.800> so<00:21:04.920> it<00:21:05.040> can<00:21:05.190> spread<00:21:05.430> around<00:21:05.580> the<00:21:05.730> world 00:21:05.780 --> 00:21:05.790 align:start position:0% period so it can spread around the world 00:21:05.790 --> 00:21:08.750 align:start position:0% period so it can spread around the world before<00:21:06.270> we<00:21:06.330> have<00:21:06.480> a<00:21:06.510> chance<00:21:06.810> to<00:21:07.020> react<00:21:07.730> also<00:21:08.730> a 00:21:08.750 --> 00:21:08.760 align:start position:0% before we have a chance to react also a 00:21:08.760 --> 00:21:10.280 align:start position:0% before we have a chance to react also a number<00:21:08.970> of<00:21:09.120> experts<00:21:09.600> are<00:21:09.750> concerned<00:21:10.140> that 00:21:10.280 --> 00:21:10.290 align:start position:0% number of experts are concerned that 00:21:10.290 --> 00:21:12.740 align:start position:0% number of experts are concerned that artificial<00:21:11.280> general<00:21:11.430> intelligence<00:21:11.640> seems<00:21:12.570> to 00:21:12.740 --> 00:21:12.750 align:start position:0% artificial general intelligence seems to 00:21:12.750 --> 00:21:13.760 align:start position:0% artificial general intelligence seems to be<00:21:12.870> something<00:21:13.290> that's<00:21:13.380> going<00:21:13.560> to<00:21:13.680> be 00:21:13.760 --> 00:21:13.770 align:start position:0% be something that's going to be 00:21:13.770 --> 00:21:15.950 align:start position:0% be something that's going to be happening<00:21:14.160> in<00:21:14.370> the<00:21:14.430> next<00:21:14.850> few<00:21:15.270> decades<00:21:15.390> and 00:21:15.950 --> 00:21:15.960 align:start position:0% happening in the next few decades and 00:21:15.960 --> 00:21:18.410 align:start position:0% happening in the next few decades and the<00:21:16.740> task<00:21:17.010> of<00:21:17.280> aligning<00:21:17.580> the<00:21:17.760> goals<00:21:17.790> are<00:21:18.360> the 00:21:18.410 --> 00:21:18.420 align:start position:0% the task of aligning the goals are the 00:21:18.420 --> 00:21:20.810 align:start position:0% the task of aligning the goals are the super<00:21:18.870> intelligent<00:21:19.380> general<00:21:19.830> intelligence 00:21:20.810 --> 00:21:20.820 align:start position:0% super intelligent general intelligence 00:21:20.820 --> 00:21:23.540 align:start position:0% super intelligent general intelligence with<00:21:21.480> human<00:21:21.810> goals<00:21:21.990> may<00:21:22.770> not<00:21:22.800> be<00:21:22.980> as<00:21:23.160> easy<00:21:23.370> as 00:21:23.540 --> 00:21:23.550 align:start position:0% with human goals may not be as easy as 00:21:23.550 --> 00:21:25.340 align:start position:0% with human goals may not be as easy as it<00:21:23.700> seems<00:21:23.970> and<00:21:24.420> there<00:21:24.690> are<00:21:24.750> things<00:21:24.840> we<00:21:25.050> can<00:21:25.200> do 00:21:25.340 --> 00:21:25.350 align:start position:0% it seems and there are things we can do 00:21:25.350 --> 00:21:31.670 align:start position:0% it seems and there are things we can do about<00:21:25.380> this<00:21:25.770> now<00:21:27.830> so<00:21:29.990> there's<00:21:30.990> a<00:21:31.050> lot<00:21:31.200> to<00:21:31.230> do 00:21:31.670 --> 00:21:31.680 align:start position:0% about this now so there's a lot to do 00:21:31.680 --> 00:21:34.550 align:start position:0% about this now so there's a lot to do funding<00:21:32.580> hasn't<00:21:32.910> caught<00:21:33.060> up<00:21:33.090> and<00:21:33.510> we<00:21:34.290> donated 00:21:34.550 --> 00:21:34.560 align:start position:0% funding hasn't caught up and we donated 00:21:34.560 --> 00:21:38.120 align:start position:0% funding hasn't caught up and we donated over<00:21:34.920> 400<00:21:35.670> billion<00:21:35.880> last<00:21:36.330> year<00:21:36.540> less<00:21:37.410> than<00:21:37.680> 1 00:21:38.120 --> 00:21:38.130 align:start position:0% over 400 billion last year less than 1 00:21:38.130 --> 00:21:39.710 align:start position:0% over 400 billion last year less than 1 billion<00:21:38.370> of<00:21:38.610> that<00:21:38.790> went<00:21:39.030> to<00:21:39.120> pandemic 00:21:39.710 --> 00:21:39.720 align:start position:0% billion of that went to pandemic 00:21:39.720 --> 00:21:42.710 align:start position:0% billion of that went to pandemic preparedness<00:21:40.080> Oh<00:21:40.530> wrong<00:21:41.100> slide<00:21:41.340> and<00:21:41.720> pandemic 00:21:42.710 --> 00:21:42.720 align:start position:0% preparedness Oh wrong slide and pandemic 00:21:42.720 --> 00:21:44.840 align:start position:0% preparedness Oh wrong slide and pandemic preparedness<00:21:43.110> was<00:21:43.620> one<00:21:43.860> of<00:21:43.980> the<00:21:44.190> most<00:21:44.430> well 00:21:44.840 --> 00:21:44.850 align:start position:0% preparedness was one of the most well 00:21:44.850 --> 00:21:48.020 align:start position:0% preparedness was one of the most well funded<00:21:45.450> in<00:21:45.660> these<00:21:46.080> pressing<00:21:46.560> problems<00:21:47.010> so<00:21:47.910> we 00:21:48.020 --> 00:21:48.030 align:start position:0% funded in these pressing problems so we 00:21:48.030 --> 00:21:50.360 align:start position:0% funded in these pressing problems so we clearly<00:21:48.330> sort<00:21:48.690> of<00:21:48.780> haven't<00:21:49.350> caught<00:21:49.560> up<00:21:49.590> to<00:21:50.250> the 00:21:50.360 --> 00:21:50.370 align:start position:0% clearly sort of haven't caught up to the 00:21:50.370 --> 00:21:53.710 align:start position:0% clearly sort of haven't caught up to the nature<00:21:50.670> of<00:21:50.700> the<00:21:51.000> challenges<00:21:51.510> we're<00:21:51.810> facing 00:21:53.710 --> 00:21:53.720 align:start position:0% nature of the challenges we're facing 00:21:53.720 --> 00:21:56.000 align:start position:0% nature of the challenges we're facing but<00:21:54.720> I'm<00:21:54.810> not<00:21:54.900> here<00:21:55.080> predominantly<00:21:55.710> to<00:21:55.830> talk 00:21:56.000 --> 00:21:56.010 align:start position:0% but I'm not here predominantly to talk 00:21:56.010 --> 00:21:58.130 align:start position:0% but I'm not here predominantly to talk about<00:21:56.250> funding<00:21:56.490> I'd<00:21:57.390> also<00:21:57.600> like<00:21:57.810> to<00:21:57.870> talk 00:21:58.130 --> 00:21:58.140 align:start position:0% about funding I'd also like to talk 00:21:58.140 --> 00:22:00.790 align:start position:0% about funding I'd also like to talk about<00:21:58.470> talent<00:21:58.980> and<00:21:59.220> to<00:21:59.520> ask<00:21:59.670> for<00:21:59.790> your<00:22:00.000> help 00:22:00.790 --> 00:22:00.800 align:start position:0% about talent and to ask for your help 00:22:00.800 --> 00:22:03.080 align:start position:0% about talent and to ask for your help we're<00:22:01.800> really<00:22:02.100> just<00:22:02.190> at<00:22:02.490> the<00:22:02.580> beginning<00:22:02.700> of 00:22:03.080 --> 00:22:03.090 align:start position:0% we're really just at the beginning of 00:22:03.090 --> 00:22:05.450 align:start position:0% we're really just at the beginning of this<00:22:03.330> intellectual<00:22:03.750> project<00:22:04.320> and<00:22:04.590> there's<00:22:05.190> so 00:22:05.450 --> 00:22:05.460 align:start position:0% this intellectual project and there's so 00:22:05.460 --> 00:22:07.010 align:start position:0% this intellectual project and there's so much<00:22:05.640> more<00:22:05.910> intellectual<00:22:06.300> ground<00:22:06.690> to<00:22:06.840> break 00:22:07.010 --> 00:22:07.020 align:start position:0% much more intellectual ground to break 00:22:07.020 --> 00:22:09.050 align:start position:0% much more intellectual ground to break and<00:22:07.290> so<00:22:07.710> many<00:22:07.950> more<00:22:08.100> actions<00:22:08.580> that<00:22:08.760> we<00:22:08.850> need<00:22:09.000> to 00:22:09.050 --> 00:22:09.060 align:start position:0% and so many more actions that we need to 00:22:09.060 --> 00:22:11.390 align:start position:0% and so many more actions that we need to take<00:22:09.240> and<00:22:09.510> projects<00:22:09.930> we<00:22:10.050> need<00:22:10.080> to<00:22:10.290> start<00:22:10.530> there 00:22:11.390 --> 00:22:11.400 align:start position:0% take and projects we need to start there 00:22:11.400 --> 00:22:14.090 align:start position:0% take and projects we need to start there are<00:22:11.550> fundamental<00:22:12.180> questions<00:22:12.630> about<00:22:13.110> what<00:22:13.980> is 00:22:14.090 --> 00:22:14.100 align:start position:0% are fundamental questions about what is 00:22:14.100 --> 00:22:15.800 align:start position:0% are fundamental questions about what is the<00:22:14.190> value<00:22:14.460> of<00:22:14.490> the<00:22:14.700> future<00:22:14.940> why<00:22:15.510> do<00:22:15.570> we<00:22:15.780> think 00:22:15.800 --> 00:22:15.810 align:start position:0% the value of the future why do we think 00:22:15.810 --> 00:22:16.730 align:start position:0% the value of the future why do we think it's<00:22:16.110> going<00:22:16.260> to<00:22:16.290> be<00:22:16.410> passe 00:22:16.730 --> 00:22:16.740 align:start position:0% it's going to be passe 00:22:16.740 --> 00:22:19.340 align:start position:0% it's going to be passe or<00:22:17.070> negative<00:22:17.820> how<00:22:18.210> does<00:22:18.419> economics<00:22:19.080> game 00:22:19.340 --> 00:22:19.350 align:start position:0% or negative how does economics game 00:22:19.350 --> 00:22:21.680 align:start position:0% or negative how does economics game theory<00:22:19.710> coordination<00:22:20.399> theory<00:22:20.789> changed<00:22:21.539> when 00:22:21.680 --> 00:22:21.690 align:start position:0% theory coordination theory changed when 00:22:21.690 --> 00:22:23.630 align:start position:0% theory coordination theory changed when we<00:22:21.809> assume<00:22:22.049> altruistic<00:22:22.740> actors<00:22:23.159> rather<00:22:23.490> than 00:22:23.630 --> 00:22:23.640 align:start position:0% we assume altruistic actors rather than 00:22:23.640 --> 00:22:26.659 align:start position:0% we assume altruistic actors rather than self-motivated<00:22:24.419> actors<00:22:24.779> at<00:22:25.740> the<00:22:25.860> calls<00:22:26.070> level 00:22:26.659 --> 00:22:26.669 align:start position:0% self-motivated actors at the calls level 00:22:26.669 --> 00:22:28.940 align:start position:0% self-motivated actors at the calls level how<00:22:27.270> are<00:22:27.390> we<00:22:27.480> going<00:22:27.690> to<00:22:27.809> think<00:22:27.840> about<00:22:28.289> risks 00:22:28.940 --> 00:22:28.950 align:start position:0% how are we going to think about risks 00:22:28.950 --> 00:22:31.250 align:start position:0% how are we going to think about risks posed<00:22:29.190> by<00:22:29.220> new<00:22:30.029> types<00:22:30.299> of<00:22:30.450> global<00:22:30.779> conflict 00:22:31.250 --> 00:22:31.260 align:start position:0% posed by new types of global conflict 00:22:31.260 --> 00:22:33.019 align:start position:0% posed by new types of global conflict how<00:22:31.649> can<00:22:31.830> we<00:22:31.919> improve<00:22:32.130> institutional 00:22:33.019 --> 00:22:33.029 align:start position:0% how can we improve institutional 00:22:33.029 --> 00:22:34.430 align:start position:0% how can we improve institutional decision-making<00:22:33.450> how<00:22:33.960> can<00:22:34.140> we<00:22:34.230> improve 00:22:34.430 --> 00:22:34.440 align:start position:0% decision-making how can we improve 00:22:34.440 --> 00:22:37.850 align:start position:0% decision-making how can we improve forecasting<00:22:35.220> at<00:22:35.909> a<00:22:35.970> project<00:22:36.450> level<00:22:36.860> recently 00:22:37.850 --> 00:22:37.860 align:start position:0% forecasting at a project level recently 00:22:37.860 --> 00:22:39.500 align:start position:0% forecasting at a project level recently projects<00:22:38.340> have<00:22:38.460> been<00:22:38.490> proposed<00:22:38.970> such<00:22:39.240> as 00:22:39.500 --> 00:22:39.510 align:start position:0% projects have been proposed such as 00:22:39.510 --> 00:22:43.190 align:start position:0% projects have been proposed such as having<00:22:40.440> a<00:22:40.649> database<00:22:41.610> where<00:22:42.210> we<00:22:42.240> can<00:22:42.659> subsidize 00:22:43.190 --> 00:22:43.200 align:start position:0% having a database where we can subsidize 00:22:43.200 --> 00:22:44.930 align:start position:0% having a database where we can subsidize a<00:22:43.260> prediction<00:22:43.890> market<00:22:44.309> for<00:22:44.549> questions 00:22:44.930 --> 00:22:44.940 align:start position:0% a prediction market for questions 00:22:44.940 --> 00:22:47.960 align:start position:0% a prediction market for questions relevant<00:22:45.360> to<00:22:45.600> these<00:22:45.690> types<00:22:45.960> of<00:22:46.140> risks<00:22:46.850> so<00:22:47.850> in 00:22:47.960 --> 00:22:47.970 align:start position:0% relevant to these types of risks so in 00:22:47.970 --> 00:22:49.820 align:start position:0% relevant to these types of risks so in summary<00:22:48.179> I'm<00:22:48.480> here<00:22:48.720> today<00:22:48.870> to<00:22:49.260> ask<00:22:49.409> for<00:22:49.679> your 00:22:49.820 --> 00:22:49.830 align:start position:0% summary I'm here today to ask for your 00:22:49.830 --> 00:22:52.240 align:start position:0% summary I'm here today to ask for your help<00:22:50.220> in<00:22:50.520> the<00:22:51.000> spirit<00:22:51.299> of<00:22:51.330> this<00:22:51.510> conference 00:22:52.240 --> 00:22:52.250 align:start position:0% help in the spirit of this conference 00:22:52.250 --> 00:22:56.419 align:start position:0% help in the spirit of this conference please<00:22:53.250> take<00:22:53.610> a<00:22:53.640> photo<00:22:53.970> of<00:22:54.120> our<00:22:54.450> emails<00:22:55.429> please 00:22:56.419 --> 00:22:56.429 align:start position:0% please take a photo of our emails please 00:22:56.429 --> 00:22:59.510 align:start position:0% please take a photo of our emails please do<00:22:56.760> and<00:22:57.029> please<00:22:57.840> just<00:22:58.110> send<00:22:58.590> us<00:22:58.740> a<00:22:58.799> blank<00:22:59.070> email 00:22:59.510 --> 00:22:59.520 align:start position:0% do and please just send us a blank email 00:22:59.520 --> 00:23:02.060 align:start position:0% do and please just send us a blank email and<00:22:59.789> if<00:23:00.630> you<00:23:01.049> can<00:23:01.230> help<00:23:01.350> us<00:23:01.590> spread<00:23:01.950> these 00:23:02.060 --> 00:23:02.070 align:start position:0% and if you can help us spread these 00:23:02.070 --> 00:23:04.159 align:start position:0% and if you can help us spread these ideas<00:23:02.130> if<00:23:02.789> you've<00:23:03.120> got<00:23:03.270> ideas<00:23:03.419> of<00:23:03.659> people<00:23:04.049> we 00:23:04.159 --> 00:23:04.169 align:start position:0% ideas if you've got ideas of people we 00:23:04.169 --> 00:23:06.919 align:start position:0% ideas if you've got ideas of people we can<00:23:04.350> talk<00:23:04.620> to<00:23:04.830> places<00:23:05.610> we<00:23:05.730> can<00:23:05.909> talk<00:23:06.149> places<00:23:06.809> we 00:23:06.919 --> 00:23:06.929 align:start position:0% can talk to places we can talk places we 00:23:06.929 --> 00:23:09.649 align:start position:0% can talk to places we can talk places we can<00:23:07.110> write<00:23:07.289> and<00:23:07.590> present<00:23:07.919> live<00:23:08.700> and<00:23:08.850> I<00:23:08.909> really 00:23:09.649 --> 00:23:09.659 align:start position:0% can write and present live and I really 00:23:09.659 --> 00:23:11.960 align:start position:0% can write and present live and I really really<00:23:09.929> a<00:23:09.960> keen<00:23:10.260> to<00:23:10.440> do<00:23:10.590> this<00:23:10.740> and<00:23:11.279> if<00:23:11.700> we<00:23:11.820> can 00:23:11.960 --> 00:23:11.970 align:start position:0% really a keen to do this and if we can 00:23:11.970 --> 00:23:13.820 align:start position:0% really a keen to do this and if we can help<00:23:12.179> you<00:23:12.419> if<00:23:12.659> you're<00:23:12.990> working<00:23:13.200> on<00:23:13.500> a<00:23:13.559> project 00:23:13.820 --> 00:23:13.830 align:start position:0% help you if you're working on a project 00:23:13.830 --> 00:23:15.889 align:start position:0% help you if you're working on a project to<00:23:14.159> make<00:23:14.190> the<00:23:14.399> world<00:23:14.580> better<00:23:14.669> by<00:23:15.419> asking<00:23:15.779> the 00:23:15.889 --> 00:23:15.899 align:start position:0% to make the world better by asking the 00:23:15.899 --> 00:23:18.440 align:start position:0% to make the world better by asking the big-picture<00:23:16.140> questions<00:23:16.950> please<00:23:17.700> do<00:23:17.940> email<00:23:17.970> us 00:23:18.440 --> 00:23:18.450 align:start position:0% big-picture questions please do email us 00:23:18.450 --> 00:23:19.730 align:start position:0% big-picture questions please do email us we<00:23:18.690> would<00:23:18.809> love<00:23:18.990> to<00:23:19.169> share<00:23:19.289> you<00:23:19.440> look<00:23:19.559> cool 00:23:19.730 --> 00:23:19.740 align:start position:0% we would love to share you look cool 00:23:19.740 --> 00:23:31.240 align:start position:0% we would love to share you look cool with<00:23:19.890> you<00:23:20.070> thank<00:23:20.909> you<00:23:21.029> very<00:23:21.179> much 00:23:31.240 --> 00:23:31.250 align:start position:0% 00:23:31.250 --> 00:23:33.310 align:start position:0% you