WEBVTT Kind: captions Language: en 00:00:05.070 --> 00:00:14.910 align:start position:0% [Music] 00:00:14.910 --> 00:00:14.920 align:start position:0% 00:00:14.920 --> 00:00:18.349 align:start position:0% [Music] 00:00:18.349 --> 00:00:18.359 align:start position:0% 00:00:18.359 --> 00:00:19.830 align:start position:0% we<00:00:18.480> are<00:00:18.640> about<00:00:18.840> to<00:00:19.000> begin<00:00:19.199> our<00:00:19.400> prediction 00:00:19.830 --> 00:00:19.840 align:start position:0% we are about to begin our prediction 00:00:19.840 --> 00:00:23.670 align:start position:0% we are about to begin our prediction Market<00:00:20.640> I<00:00:20.760> will<00:00:21.279> uh<00:00:21.519> hand<00:00:21.720> it<00:00:21.880> over<00:00:22.320> to<00:00:22.560> our 00:00:23.670 --> 00:00:23.680 align:start position:0% Market I will uh hand it over to our 00:00:23.680 --> 00:00:26.429 align:start position:0% Market I will uh hand it over to our moderator<00:00:24.680> um<00:00:25.320> so<00:00:25.519> if<00:00:25.680> everyone<00:00:25.960> could<00:00:26.119> quiet 00:00:26.429 --> 00:00:26.439 align:start position:0% moderator um so if everyone could quiet 00:00:26.439 --> 00:00:31.429 align:start position:0% moderator um so if everyone could quiet down<00:00:26.800> while<00:00:27.080> we<00:00:27.400> begin<00:00:27.800> prediction<00:00:28.199> markets 00:00:31.429 --> 00:00:31.439 align:start position:0% 00:00:31.439 --> 00:00:34.910 align:start position:0% thank<00:00:31.599> you<00:00:31.679> all<00:00:31.800> for<00:00:32.000> coming<00:00:32.960> uh<00:00:33.800> I<00:00:34.040> have<00:00:34.320> a<00:00:34.600> a 00:00:34.910 --> 00:00:34.920 align:start position:0% thank you all for coming uh I have a a 00:00:34.920 --> 00:00:37.069 align:start position:0% thank you all for coming uh I have a a general<00:00:35.399> question<00:00:35.840> that<00:00:36.000> I<00:00:36.160> started<00:00:36.640> asking 00:00:37.069 --> 00:00:37.079 align:start position:0% general question that I started asking 00:00:37.079 --> 00:00:40.869 align:start position:0% general question that I started asking during<00:00:37.399> the<00:00:37.559> tea<00:00:38.160> bre<00:00:39.160> and<00:00:39.680> that<00:00:39.879> is<00:00:40.640> what<00:00:40.760> do 00:00:40.869 --> 00:00:40.879 align:start position:0% during the tea bre and that is what do 00:00:40.879 --> 00:00:45.590 align:start position:0% during the tea bre and that is what do you<00:00:41.480> see<00:00:42.480> the<00:00:43.280> INF<00:00:43.879> funnel<00:00:44.879> and<00:00:45.120> the<00:00:45.280> out 00:00:45.590 --> 00:00:45.600 align:start position:0% you see the INF funnel and the out 00:00:45.600 --> 00:00:47.630 align:start position:0% you see the INF funnel and the out funnel<00:00:46.079> into<00:00:46.399> prediction<00:00:46.800> market<00:00:47.160> so<00:00:47.399> what 00:00:47.630 --> 00:00:47.640 align:start position:0% funnel into prediction market so what 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very<00:00:57.000> effective<00:00:57.960> and<00:00:58.480> if<00:00:59.000> we<00:00:59.359> manage<00:01:00.000> to 00:01:00.150 --> 00:01:00.160 align:start position:0% very effective and if we manage to 00:01:00.160 --> 00:01:02.189 align:start position:0% very effective and if we manage to create<00:01:00.600> liquid<00:01:01.000> and<00:01:01.280> effective<00:01:01.680> prediction 00:01:02.189 --> 00:01:02.199 align:start position:0% create liquid and effective prediction 00:01:02.199 --> 00:01:05.189 align:start position:0% create liquid and effective prediction markets<00:01:03.199> what<00:01:03.440> kind<00:01:03.640> of<00:01:03.960> ethereum<00:01:04.960> uh 00:01:05.189 --> 00:01:05.199 align:start position:0% markets what kind of ethereum uh 00:01:05.199 --> 00:01:07.310 align:start position:0% markets what kind of ethereum uh processes<00:01:05.720> could<00:01:05.960> benefit<00:01:06.400> from<00:01:06.640> that<00:01:07.080> so<00:01:07.240> if 00:01:07.310 --> 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earlier on gnosis our our 00:01:15.680 --> 00:01:18.710 align:start position:0% presentation earlier on gnosis our our goal<00:01:15.960> is<00:01:16.640> first<00:01:17.000> to<00:01:17.159> set<00:01:17.360> it<00:01:17.520> up<00:01:18.119> uh<00:01:18.240> to<00:01:18.360> make<00:01:18.520> it 00:01:18.710 --> 00:01:18.720 align:start position:0% goal is first to set it up uh to make it 00:01:18.720 --> 00:01:20.190 align:start position:0% goal is first to set it up uh to make it really<00:01:19.000> really<00:01:19.280> easy<00:01:19.600> to<00:01:19.759> set<00:01:19.920> up<00:01:20.079> a 00:01:20.190 --> 00:01:20.200 align:start position:0% really really easy to set up a 00:01:20.200 --> 00:01:22.910 align:start position:0% really really easy to set up a prediction<00:01:20.640> Market<00:01:21.640> um<00:01:21.960> so<00:01:22.320> let's<00:01:22.520> say<00:01:22.759> you 00:01:22.910 --> 00:01:22.920 align:start position:0% prediction Market um so let's say you 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kind of<00:01:32.720> special<00:01:33.040> interest<00:01:33.399> or<00:01:34.159> what's<00:01:34.399> going<00:01:34.600> on 00:01:34.990 --> 00:01:35.000 align:start position:0% of special interest or what's going on 00:01:35.000 --> 00:01:38.630 align:start position:0% of special interest or what's going on in<00:01:35.119> the<00:01:35.520> next<00:01:36.119> um<00:01:37.079> season<00:01:37.360> of<00:01:37.520> Heth<00:01:37.720> of<00:01:37.880> cards 00:01:38.630 --> 00:01:38.640 align:start position:0% in the next um season of Heth of cards 00:01:38.640 --> 00:01:40.830 align:start position:0% in the next um season of Heth of cards whatever<00:01:39.600> um<00:01:39.960> then<00:01:40.119> it<00:01:40.240> should<00:01:40.399> be<00:01:40.560> really 00:01:40.830 --> 00:01:40.840 align:start position:0% whatever um then it should be really 00:01:40.840 --> 00:01:42.910 align:start position:0% whatever um then it should be really easy<00:01:41.560> uh<00:01:41.680> as<00:01:41.840> easy<00:01:42.159> as<00:01:42.399> setting<00:01:42.680> up<00:01:42.799> a 00:01:42.910 --> 00:01:42.920 align:start position:0% easy uh as easy as setting up a 00:01:42.920 --> 00:01:44.709 align:start position:0% easy uh as easy as setting up a WordPress<00:01:43.360> block<00:01:43.759> to<00:01:43.920> set<00:01:44.079> up<00:01:44.200> a<00:01:44.320> prediction 00:01:44.709 --> 00:01:44.719 align:start position:0% WordPress block to set up a prediction 00:01:44.719 --> 00:01:47.950 align:start position:0% WordPress block to set up a prediction market<00:01:45.719> and<00:01:46.320> um<00:01:46.680> one<00:01:46.960> addition<00:01:47.439> additional 00:01:47.950 --> 00:01:47.960 align:start position:0% market and um one addition additional 00:01:47.960 --> 00:01:52.310 align:start position:0% market and um one addition additional mechanism<00:01:48.960> that<00:01:49.439> um<00:01:50.320> might<00:01:50.680> make<00:01:51.079> make<00:01:51.240> it<00:01:51.840> uh 00:01:52.310 --> 00:01:52.320 align:start position:0% mechanism that um might make make it uh 00:01:52.320 --> 00:01:55.030 align:start position:0% mechanism that um might make make it uh easier<00:01:52.759> to<00:01:52.960> get<00:01:53.119> started<00:01:54.000> is<00:01:54.119> that<00:01:54.320> you<00:01:54.479> can 00:01:55.030 --> 00:01:55.040 align:start position:0% easier to get started is that you can 00:01:55.040 --> 00:01:59.109 align:start position:0% easier to get started is that you can use<00:01:55.399> first<00:01:56.079> um<00:01:56.280> tokens<00:01:57.240> for<00:01:57.520> those<00:01:58.119> markets 00:01:59.109 --> 00:01:59.119 align:start position:0% use first um tokens for those markets 00:01:59.119 --> 00:02:00.389 align:start position:0% use first um tokens for those markets and<00:01:59.600> um 00:02:00.389 --> 00:02:00.399 align:start position:0% and um 00:02:00.399 --> 00:02:02.230 align:start position:0% and um they<00:02:00.600> can<00:02:00.799> have<00:02:00.920> a<00:02:01.079> value<00:02:01.479> or<00:02:01.759> they<00:02:01.960> they<00:02:02.079> can 00:02:02.230 --> 00:02:02.240 align:start position:0% they can have a value or they they can 00:02:02.240 --> 00:02:07.109 align:start position:0% they can have a value or they they can be<00:02:02.840> additionally<00:02:03.280> traded<00:02:03.640> in<00:02:04.079> eer<00:02:05.399> um<00:02:06.399> but<00:02:06.880> it 00:02:07.109 --> 00:02:07.119 align:start position:0% be additionally traded in eer um but it 00:02:07.119 --> 00:02:09.949 align:start position:0% be additionally traded in eer um but it it's<00:02:07.880> for<00:02:08.000> sure<00:02:08.200> it's<00:02:08.399> easier<00:02:09.160> to<00:02:09.399> to<00:02:09.599> get<00:02:09.720> it 00:02:09.949 --> 00:02:09.959 align:start position:0% it's for sure it's easier to to get it 00:02:09.959 --> 00:02:13.350 align:start position:0% it's for sure it's easier to to get it started<00:02:10.959> uh<00:02:11.080> if<00:02:11.200> you<00:02:11.400> have<00:02:12.040> some<00:02:12.599> kind<00:02:12.800> of<00:02:13.080> play 00:02:13.350 --> 00:02:13.360 align:start position:0% started uh if you have some kind of play 00:02:13.360 --> 00:02:15.949 align:start position:0% started uh if you have some kind of play money<00:02:13.720> that<00:02:13.879> only<00:02:14.200> evolves<00:02:14.680> over<00:02:14.959> time<00:02:15.560> into 00:02:15.949 --> 00:02:15.959 align:start position:0% money that only evolves over time into 00:02:15.959 --> 00:02:18.190 align:start position:0% money that only evolves over time into something<00:02:16.400> that<00:02:16.640> becomes<00:02:17.280> valuable<00:02:17.879> because 00:02:18.190 --> 00:02:18.200 align:start position:0% something that becomes valuable because 00:02:18.200 --> 00:02:22.270 align:start position:0% something that becomes valuable because those<00:02:18.920> who<00:02:19.519> have<00:02:19.680> a<00:02:19.760> lot<00:02:19.920> of<00:02:20.239> tokens<00:02:21.239> kind<00:02:21.400> of 00:02:22.270 --> 00:02:22.280 align:start position:0% those who have a lot of tokens kind of 00:02:22.280 --> 00:02:25.830 align:start position:0% those who have a lot of tokens kind of um<00:02:23.280> uh<00:02:23.640> certificate<00:02:24.519> that<00:02:24.720> they<00:02:24.840> are<00:02:25.400> experts 00:02:25.830 --> 00:02:25.840 align:start position:0% um uh certificate that they are experts 00:02:25.840 --> 00:02:30.229 align:start position:0% um uh certificate that they are experts in<00:02:26.319> in<00:02:26.440> this<00:02:27.000> field<00:02:28.400> Jack<00:02:29.400> um<00:02:29.720> well<00:02:30.000> I<00:02:30.080> think 00:02:30.229 --> 00:02:30.239 align:start position:0% in in this field Jack um well I think 00:02:30.239 --> 00:02:32.869 align:start position:0% in in this field Jack um well I think one<00:02:30.480> thing<00:02:31.160> that<00:02:31.680> uh<00:02:32.040> could<00:02:32.200> help<00:02:32.400> sort<00:02:32.599> of 00:02:32.869 --> 00:02:32.879 align:start position:0% one thing that uh could help sort of 00:02:32.879 --> 00:02:36.550 align:start position:0% one thing that uh could help sort of onboard<00:02:33.519> people<00:02:34.040> is<00:02:34.959> like<00:02:35.160> really<00:02:35.879> meaningful 00:02:36.550 --> 00:02:36.560 align:start position:0% onboard people is like really meaningful 00:02:36.560 --> 00:02:41.869 align:start position:0% onboard people is like really meaningful social<00:02:36.920> media<00:02:37.400> media<00:02:37.720> integration<00:02:38.519> so<00:02:39.560> um<00:02:40.879> one 00:02:41.869 --> 00:02:41.879 align:start position:0% social media media integration so um one 00:02:41.879 --> 00:02:44.190 align:start position:0% social media media integration so um one integration<00:02:42.480> that<00:02:43.400> I've<00:02:43.599> thought<00:02:43.840> would<00:02:44.000> be 00:02:44.190 --> 00:02:44.200 align:start position:0% integration that I've thought would be 00:02:44.200 --> 00:02:47.509 align:start position:0% integration that I've thought would be pretty<00:02:44.440> cool<00:02:45.159> is<00:02:46.159> like<00:02:46.440> um<00:02:46.959> if<00:02:47.040> you<00:02:47.200> could<00:02:47.360> sort 00:02:47.509 --> 00:02:47.519 align:start position:0% pretty cool is like um if you could sort 00:02:47.519 --> 00:02:50.990 align:start position:0% pretty cool is like um if you could sort of<00:02:47.720> challenge<00:02:48.200> people<00:02:48.519> on<00:02:48.840> Twitter<00:02:49.680> like<00:02:50.040> the 00:02:50.990 --> 00:02:51.000 align:start position:0% of challenge people on Twitter like the 00:02:51.000 --> 00:02:53.710 align:start position:0% of challenge people on Twitter like the I<00:02:51.159> guess<00:02:52.159> uh<00:02:52.280> Twitter<00:02:52.640> has<00:02:52.800> like<00:02:52.920> a<00:02:53.120> change<00:02:53.519> tip 00:02:53.710 --> 00:02:53.720 align:start position:0% I guess uh Twitter has like a change tip 00:02:53.720 --> 00:02:56.830 align:start position:0% I guess uh Twitter has like a change tip integration<00:02:54.200> now<00:02:54.599> I<00:02:54.720> think<00:02:54.879> they<00:02:55.000> do<00:02:55.959> and<00:02:56.319> um 00:02:56.830 --> 00:02:56.840 align:start position:0% integration now I think they do and um 00:02:56.840 --> 00:02:58.990 align:start position:0% integration now I think they do and um you<00:02:56.959> know<00:02:57.080> you<00:02:57.159> can<00:02:57.319> imagine<00:02:58.200> you<00:02:58.319> know 00:02:58.990 --> 00:02:59.000 align:start position:0% you know you can imagine you know 00:02:59.000 --> 00:03:01.910 align:start position:0% you know you can imagine you know someone<00:02:59.400> is<00:02:59.599> always<00:02:59.920> is<00:03:00.319> on<00:03:00.519> Twitter<00:03:01.000> saying 00:03:01.910 --> 00:03:01.920 align:start position:0% someone is always is on Twitter saying 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rage at that person it's not going to<00:03:07.239> change<00:03:07.519> anything<00:03:08.360> um<00:03:08.879> but<00:03:09.000> you<00:03:09.120> could 00:03:09.229 --> 00:03:09.239 align:start position:0% to change anything um but you could 00:03:09.239 --> 00:03:10.509 align:start position:0% to change anything um but you could challenge<00:03:09.599> them<00:03:09.720> to<00:03:09.920> put<00:03:10.080> their<00:03:10.159> money<00:03:10.360> where 00:03:10.509 --> 00:03:10.519 align:start position:0% challenge them to put their money where 00:03:10.519 --> 00:03:13.990 align:start position:0% challenge them to put their money where their<00:03:10.640> mouth<00:03:10.879> is<00:03:11.400> which<00:03:11.519> is<00:03:11.640> sort<00:03:11.799> of<00:03:12.040> the<00:03:13.000> the 00:03:13.990 --> 00:03:14.000 align:start position:0% their mouth is which is sort of the the 00:03:14.000 --> 00:03:16.470 align:start position:0% their mouth is which is sort of the the um<00:03:14.400> catchphrase<00:03:14.920> for<00:03:15.200> prediction<00:03:15.599> markets 00:03:16.470 --> 00:03:16.480 align:start position:0% um catchphrase for prediction markets 00:03:16.480 --> 00:03:18.710 align:start position:0% um catchphrase for prediction markets and<00:03:16.760> say<00:03:17.400> you<00:03:17.480> know<00:03:17.640> you<00:03:17.840> have<00:03:18.200> a<00:03:18.360> button<00:03:18.640> you 00:03:18.710 --> 00:03:18.720 align:start position:0% and say you know you have a button you 00:03:18.720 --> 00:03:21.550 align:start position:0% and say you know you have a button you can<00:03:18.920> click<00:03:19.120> on<00:03:19.319> that<00:03:19.480> says<00:03:20.000> You<00:03:20.120> Know<00:03:21.000> Jack<00:03:21.360> has 00:03:21.550 --> 00:03:21.560 align:start position:0% can click on that says You Know Jack has 00:03:21.560 --> 00:03:23.190 align:start position:0% can click on that says You Know Jack has thrown<00:03:21.879> down<00:03:22.040> the<00:03:22.159> gauntlet<00:03:22.640> challenges<00:03:23.080> you 00:03:23.190 --> 00:03:23.200 align:start position:0% thrown down the gauntlet challenges you 00:03:23.200 --> 00:03:25.869 align:start position:0% thrown down the gauntlet challenges you to<00:03:23.440> place<00:03:23.640> a<00:03:24.159> you<00:03:24.280> know<00:03:24.519> five<00:03:24.879> Bitcoin<00:03:25.360> bet 00:03:25.869 --> 00:03:25.879 align:start position:0% to place a you know five Bitcoin bet 00:03:25.879 --> 00:03:27.509 align:start position:0% to place a you know five Bitcoin bet that<00:03:26.440> what<00:03:26.560> you're<00:03:26.680> saying<00:03:26.959> is<00:03:27.200> right<00:03:27.440> you 00:03:27.509 --> 00:03:27.519 align:start position:0% that what you're saying is right you 00:03:27.519 --> 00:03:30.229 align:start position:0% that what you're saying is right you know<00:03:27.720> vaccines<00:03:28.200> actually<00:03:28.400> cause<00:03:28.760> autism<00:03:29.840> and 00:03:30.229 --> 00:03:30.239 align:start position:0% know vaccines actually cause autism and 00:03:30.239 --> 00:03:31.750 align:start position:0% know vaccines actually cause autism and see<00:03:30.439> if<00:03:30.560> they<00:03:30.720> take<00:03:30.959> see<00:03:31.080> if<00:03:31.200> they<00:03:31.319> take<00:03:31.480> you<00:03:31.599> up 00:03:31.750 --> 00:03:31.760 align:start position:0% see if they take see if they take you up 00:03:31.760 --> 00:03:35.869 align:start position:0% see if they take see if they take you up on<00:03:31.959> it<00:03:32.959> I<00:03:33.040> think<00:03:33.200> the<00:03:33.519> sort<00:03:33.680> of<00:03:34.400> conflict<00:03:35.400> um 00:03:35.869 --> 00:03:35.879 align:start position:0% on it I think the sort of conflict um 00:03:35.879 --> 00:03:39.110 align:start position:0% on it I think the sort of conflict um sort<00:03:36.040> of<00:03:36.599> spectacle<00:03:37.599> resp<00:03:38.040> that<00:03:38.680> I<00:03:38.799> really 00:03:39.110 --> 00:03:39.120 align:start position:0% sort of spectacle resp that I really 00:03:39.120 --> 00:03:41.949 align:start position:0% sort of spectacle resp that I really like<00:03:39.480> like<00:03:39.680> the<00:03:39.840> idea<00:03:40.400> Twitter<00:03:41.000> integration 00:03:41.949 --> 00:03:41.959 align:start position:0% like like the idea Twitter integration 00:03:41.959 --> 00:03:44.509 align:start position:0% like like the idea Twitter integration uh<00:03:42.239> one<00:03:42.480> one<00:03:42.680> thing<00:03:43.159> that<00:03:43.400> I<00:03:43.599> I<00:03:43.720> think<00:03:44.040> might<00:03:44.280> be 00:03:44.509 --> 00:03:44.519 align:start position:0% uh one one thing that I I think might be 00:03:44.519 --> 00:03:47.070 align:start position:0% uh one one thing that I I think might be problematic<00:03:45.400> you<00:03:45.599> just<00:03:46.239> brought<00:03:46.519> up<00:03:46.680> the 00:03:47.070 --> 00:03:47.080 align:start position:0% problematic you just brought up the 00:03:47.080 --> 00:03:51.670 align:start position:0% problematic you just brought up the example<00:03:48.439> um<00:03:49.439> um 00:03:51.670 --> 00:03:51.680 align:start position:0% example um um 00:03:51.680 --> 00:03:56.910 align:start position:0% example um um that<00:03:52.680> um<00:03:52.879> cause<00:03:53.640> autism<00:03:54.640> um<00:03:55.079> the<00:03:55.319> problem<00:03:55.920> is 00:03:56.910 --> 00:03:56.920 align:start position:0% that um cause autism um the problem is 00:03:56.920 --> 00:03:59.309 align:start position:0% that um cause autism um the problem is do<00:03:57.120> you<00:03:57.360> get<00:03:57.640> those<00:03:57.920> people<00:03:58.280> to<00:03:58.560> rely<00:03:59.040> on<00:03:59.159> a 00:03:59.309 --> 00:03:59.319 align:start position:0% do you get those people to rely on a 00:03:59.319 --> 00:04:01.390 align:start position:0% do you get those people to rely on a specific<00:03:59.799> Oracle<00:04:00.480> what<00:04:00.720> what<00:04:00.879> would<00:04:01.079> be<00:04:01.239> the 00:04:01.390 --> 00:04:01.400 align:start position:0% specific Oracle what what would be the 00:04:01.400 --> 00:04:04.110 align:start position:0% specific Oracle what what would be the Oracle<00:04:02.120> it<00:04:02.319> if<00:04:02.439> it<00:04:02.760> would<00:04:02.959> be<00:04:03.400> the<00:04:03.599> Wikipedia 00:04:04.110 --> 00:04:04.120 align:start position:0% Oracle it if it would be the Wikipedia 00:04:04.120 --> 00:04:06.429 align:start position:0% Oracle it if it would be the Wikipedia article<00:04:04.599> then<00:04:04.959> um<00:04:05.599> well<00:04:05.840> they<00:04:06.000> can<00:04:06.239> just 00:04:06.429 --> 00:04:06.439 align:start position:0% article then um well they can just 00:04:06.439 --> 00:04:08.190 align:start position:0% article then um well they can just directly<00:04:07.079> I<00:04:07.239> I<00:04:07.360> guess<00:04:07.480> they<00:04:07.599> would<00:04:07.799> not<00:04:07.959> agree 00:04:08.190 --> 00:04:08.200 align:start position:0% directly I I guess they would not agree 00:04:08.200 --> 00:04:09.869 align:start position:0% directly I I guess they would not agree to<00:04:08.319> it<00:04:08.640> the<00:04:08.799> problem<00:04:09.000> with<00:04:09.159> that<00:04:09.360> example<00:04:09.760> is 00:04:09.869 --> 00:04:09.879 align:start position:0% to it the problem with that example is 00:04:09.879 --> 00:04:12.350 align:start position:0% to it the problem with that example is that<00:04:10.439> vaccines<00:04:10.959> cause<00:04:11.319> autism<00:04:11.879> isn't<00:04:12.159> a 00:04:12.350 --> 00:04:12.360 align:start position:0% that vaccines cause autism isn't a 00:04:12.360 --> 00:04:15.390 align:start position:0% that vaccines cause autism isn't a prediction<00:04:13.040> so<00:04:13.280> much<00:04:13.439> as<00:04:13.599> a<00:04:14.040> question<00:04:15.040> so<00:04:15.280> then 00:04:15.390 --> 00:04:15.400 align:start position:0% prediction so much as a question so then 00:04:15.400 --> 00:04:17.390 align:start position:0% prediction so much as a question so then you<00:04:15.560> have<00:04:15.680> to<00:04:16.079> formulate<00:04:16.600> exactly<00:04:17.120> you<00:04:17.239> know 00:04:17.390 --> 00:04:17.400 align:start position:0% you have to formulate exactly you know 00:04:17.400 --> 00:04:18.949 align:start position:0% you have to formulate exactly you know what<00:04:17.519> would<00:04:17.639> a<00:04:17.759> testable<00:04:18.239> prediction<00:04:18.639> off<00:04:18.759> of 00:04:18.949 --> 00:04:18.959 align:start position:0% what would a testable prediction off of 00:04:18.959 --> 00:04:21.430 align:start position:0% what would a testable prediction off of that<00:04:19.120> be<00:04:20.040> yeah<00:04:20.199> know<00:04:20.639> that's<00:04:20.759> a<00:04:20.919> fair<00:04:21.160> point 00:04:21.430 --> 00:04:21.440 align:start position:0% that be yeah know that's a fair point 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align:start position:0% Challenger would be finding you know an existing<00:04:29.240> prediction<00:04:29.720> Market<00:04:29.919> or<00:04:30.039> even 00:04:30.230 --> 00:04:30.240 align:start position:0% existing prediction Market or even 00:04:30.240 --> 00:04:32.909 align:start position:0% existing prediction Market or even creating<00:04:30.600> one<00:04:31.199> that<00:04:31.960> matched<00:04:32.360> the<00:04:32.520> challenge 00:04:32.909 --> 00:04:32.919 align:start position:0% creating one that matched the challenge 00:04:32.919 --> 00:04:35.270 align:start position:0% creating one that matched the challenge that<00:04:33.000> you<00:04:33.160> wanted<00:04:33.360> to<00:04:33.520> place<00:04:33.919> so<00:04:34.120> one<00:04:34.880> one<00:04:35.120> sort 00:04:35.270 --> 00:04:35.280 align:start position:0% that you wanted to place so one one sort 00:04:35.280 --> 00:04:37.830 align:start position:0% that you wanted to place so one one sort of<00:04:35.479> example<00:04:35.840> that<00:04:36.000> might<00:04:36.160> be<00:04:36.360> sort<00:04:36.520> of<00:04:36.840> better 00:04:37.830 --> 00:04:37.840 align:start position:0% of example that might be sort of better 00:04:37.840 --> 00:04:40.310 align:start position:0% of example that might be sort of better more<00:04:38.120> effective<00:04:38.520> is<00:04:38.800> let's<00:04:39.000> say<00:04:39.199> you<00:04:39.440> had<00:04:40.039> two 00:04:40.310 --> 00:04:40.320 align:start position:0% more effective is let's say you had two 00:04:40.320 --> 00:04:41.950 align:start position:0% more effective is let's say you had two people<00:04:40.680> one<00:04:40.800> of<00:04:41.000> whom<00:04:41.320> thinks<00:04:41.720> that 00:04:41.950 --> 00:04:41.960 align:start position:0% people one of whom thinks that 00:04:41.960 --> 00:04:43.550 align:start position:0% people one of whom thinks that technological<00:04:42.600> unemployment<00:04:43.199> is<00:04:43.320> going<00:04:43.440> to 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position:0% aren't like coures we're we're not going 00:04:49.680 --> 00:04:51.310 align:start position:0% aren't like coures we're we're not going to<00:04:49.759> be<00:04:49.880> replaced<00:04:50.280> we're<00:04:50.560> infinitely<00:04:50.960> creative 00:04:51.310 --> 00:04:51.320 align:start position:0% to be replaced we're infinitely creative 00:04:51.320 --> 00:04:52.710 align:start position:0% to be replaced we're infinitely creative and<00:04:51.440> we'll<00:04:51.600> just<00:04:51.759> keep<00:04:51.919> on<00:04:52.039> finding<00:04:52.400> better 00:04:52.710 --> 00:04:52.720 align:start position:0% and we'll just keep on finding better 00:04:52.720 --> 00:04:55.270 align:start position:0% and we'll just keep on finding better jobs<00:04:53.520> and<00:04:53.720> so<00:04:53.960> you<00:04:54.199> actually<00:04:54.600> could<00:04:54.880> make<00:04:55.160> you 00:04:55.270 --> 00:04:55.280 align:start position:0% jobs and so you actually could make you 00:04:55.280 --> 00:04:56.909 align:start position:0% jobs and so you actually could make you know<00:04:55.759> between<00:04:56.080> those<00:04:56.240> two<00:04:56.360> people<00:04:56.680> actually 00:04:56.909 --> 00:04:56.919 align:start position:0% know between those two people actually 00:04:56.919 --> 00:04:58.670 align:start position:0% know between those two people actually could<00:04:57.120> make<00:04:57.280> a<00:04:57.400> testable<00:04:58.160> prediction 00:04:58.670 --> 00:04:58.680 align:start position:0% could make a testable prediction 00:04:58.680 --> 00:05:00.670 align:start position:0% could make a testable prediction something<00:04:59.080> like<00:04:59.400> you<00:04:59.520> know<00:05:00.080> labor<00:05:00.400> force 00:05:00.670 --> 00:05:00.680 align:start position:0% something like you know labor force 00:05:00.680 --> 00:05:02.230 align:start position:0% something like you know labor force participation<00:05:01.240> rates<00:05:01.440> will<00:05:01.680> continue<00:05:02.000> being 00:05:02.230 --> 00:05:02.240 align:start position:0% participation rates will continue being 00:05:02.240 --> 00:05:04.629 align:start position:0% participation rates will continue being above<00:05:02.560> half<00:05:02.800> wages<00:05:03.120> will<00:05:03.320> continue<00:05:04.240> going<00:05:04.479> up 00:05:04.629 --> 00:05:04.639 align:start position:0% above half wages will continue going up 00:05:04.639 --> 00:05:06.830 align:start position:0% above half wages will continue going up for<00:05:04.840> about<00:05:05.080> 20<00:05:05.400> years<00:05:06.080> even<00:05:06.280> making 00:05:06.830 --> 00:05:06.840 align:start position:0% for about 20 years even making 00:05:06.840 --> 00:05:08.310 align:start position:0% for about 20 years even making conditional<00:05:07.199> on<00:05:07.360> you<00:05:07.479> know<00:05:07.720> technological 00:05:08.310 --> 00:05:08.320 align:start position:0% conditional on you know technological 00:05:08.320 --> 00:05:10.670 align:start position:0% conditional on you know technological progress<00:05:08.680> and<00:05:08.840> so<00:05:09.120> forth<00:05:10.120> what's<00:05:10.320> great<00:05:10.520> about 00:05:10.670 --> 00:05:10.680 align:start position:0% progress and so forth what's great about 00:05:10.680 --> 00:05:12.070 align:start position:0% progress and so forth what's great about this<00:05:10.880> process<00:05:11.199> is<00:05:11.360> that<00:05:11.520> it<00:05:11.680> actually<00:05:11.880> really 00:05:12.070 --> 00:05:12.080 align:start position:0% this process is that it actually really 00:05:12.080 --> 00:05:13.870 align:start position:0% this process is that it actually really drives<00:05:12.400> the<00:05:12.520> conversation<00:05:13.000> forwards<00:05:13.639> and<00:05:13.759> in 00:05:13.870 --> 00:05:13.880 align:start position:0% drives the conversation forwards and in 00:05:13.880 --> 00:05:16.189 align:start position:0% drives the conversation forwards and in a<00:05:14.000> productive<00:05:14.479> Direction<00:05:15.440> when<00:05:15.600> you<00:05:15.759> can<00:05:15.919> take 00:05:16.189 --> 00:05:16.199 align:start position:0% a productive Direction when you can take 00:05:16.199 --> 00:05:18.950 align:start position:0% a productive Direction when you can take a<00:05:16.680> a<00:05:16.800> conversation<00:05:17.479> from<00:05:18.199> you<00:05:18.319> know<00:05:18.720> this<00:05:18.800> is 00:05:18.950 --> 00:05:18.960 align:start position:0% a a conversation from you know this is 00:05:18.960 --> 00:05:20.270 align:start position:0% a a conversation from you know this is what<00:05:19.080> I<00:05:19.199> think<00:05:19.360> and<00:05:19.520> this<00:05:19.759> this<00:05:19.880> is<00:05:20.000> what<00:05:20.120> you 00:05:20.270 --> 00:05:20.280 align:start position:0% what I think and this this is what you 00:05:20.280 --> 00:05:22.309 align:start position:0% what I think and this this is what you think<00:05:20.479> to<00:05:21.120> what<00:05:21.240> would<00:05:21.400> it<00:05:21.600> take<00:05:21.800> to<00:05:21.960> know<00:05:22.160> who 00:05:22.309 --> 00:05:22.319 align:start position:0% think to what would it take to know who 00:05:22.319 --> 00:05:24.309 align:start position:0% think to what would it take to know who was<00:05:22.560> right<00:05:23.479> um<00:05:23.680> and<00:05:23.880> that's<00:05:24.000> something<00:05:24.199> that 00:05:24.309 --> 00:05:24.319 align:start position:0% was right um and that's something that 00:05:24.319 --> 00:05:25.909 align:start position:0% was right um and that's something that really<00:05:24.479> pushes<00:05:24.960> an<00:05:25.080> argument<00:05:25.360> in<00:05:25.440> a<00:05:25.560> positive 00:05:25.909 --> 00:05:25.919 align:start position:0% really pushes an argument in a positive 00:05:25.919 --> 00:05:28.790 align:start position:0% really pushes an argument in a positive direction<00:05:26.919> so<00:05:27.680> you<00:05:27.759> know<00:05:28.080> I<00:05:28.199> I<00:05:28.280> think<00:05:28.520> that 00:05:28.790 --> 00:05:28.800 align:start position:0% direction so you know I I think that 00:05:28.800 --> 00:05:30.309 align:start position:0% direction so you know I I think that kind<00:05:28.919> of<00:05:29.080> integrating<00:05:29.759> this<00:05:29.919> thing<00:05:30.160> these 00:05:30.309 --> 00:05:30.319 align:start position:0% kind of integrating this thing these 00:05:30.319 --> 00:05:32.670 align:start position:0% kind of integrating this thing these things<00:05:30.479> into<00:05:31.120> communities<00:05:32.120> um<00:05:32.280> it's<00:05:32.440> very 00:05:32.670 --> 00:05:32.680 align:start position:0% things into communities um it's very 00:05:32.680 --> 00:05:34.590 align:start position:0% things into communities um it's very positive<00:05:33.160> for<00:05:33.400> onboarding<00:05:34.039> it's<00:05:34.280> positive 00:05:34.590 --> 00:05:34.600 align:start position:0% positive for onboarding it's positive 00:05:34.600 --> 00:05:37.350 align:start position:0% positive for onboarding it's positive for<00:05:34.880> those<00:05:35.440> communities<00:05:36.440> um<00:05:36.600> and<00:05:36.720> it's<00:05:36.919> also 00:05:37.350 --> 00:05:37.360 align:start position:0% for those communities um and it's also 00:05:37.360 --> 00:05:39.110 align:start position:0% for those communities um and it's also potentially<00:05:38.319> I<00:05:38.360> mean<00:05:38.520> depending<00:05:38.880> how<00:05:39.000> you 00:05:39.110 --> 00:05:39.120 align:start position:0% potentially I mean depending how you 00:05:39.120 --> 00:05:41.430 align:start position:0% potentially I mean depending how you design<00:05:39.400> your<00:05:39.560> settlement<00:05:40.080> system<00:05:40.880> it's<00:05:41.080> also 00:05:41.430 --> 00:05:41.440 align:start position:0% design your settlement system it's also 00:05:41.440 --> 00:05:43.309 align:start position:0% design your settlement system it's also potentially<00:05:41.919> something<00:05:42.479> where<00:05:42.800> you've<00:05:43.039> got 00:05:43.309 --> 00:05:43.319 align:start position:0% potentially something where you've got 00:05:43.319 --> 00:05:45.830 align:start position:0% potentially something where you've got these<00:05:43.520> people<00:05:43.919> who<00:05:44.039> have<00:05:44.240> already<00:05:45.120> identified 00:05:45.830 --> 00:05:45.840 align:start position:0% these people who have already identified 00:05:45.840 --> 00:05:48.110 align:start position:0% these people who have already identified with<00:05:45.960> their<00:05:46.360> reputations<00:05:47.360> so<00:05:47.639> potentially 00:05:48.110 --> 00:05:48.120 align:start position:0% with their reputations so potentially 00:05:48.120 --> 00:05:50.990 align:start position:0% with their reputations so potentially you<00:05:48.240> can<00:05:48.440> use<00:05:48.720> that<00:05:48.960> to<00:05:49.280> settle<00:05:49.720> the<00:05:50.000> outcome 00:05:50.990 --> 00:05:51.000 align:start position:0% you can use that to settle the outcome 00:05:51.000 --> 00:05:52.510 align:start position:0% you can use that to settle the outcome um<00:05:51.120> based<00:05:51.360> on<00:05:51.479> those<00:05:51.639> real<00:05:51.800> world<00:05:52.000> reputations 00:05:52.510 --> 00:05:52.520 align:start position:0% um based on those real world reputations 00:05:52.520 --> 00:05:54.629 align:start position:0% um based on those real world reputations if<00:05:52.639> you<00:05:52.759> if<00:05:52.840> you<00:05:52.919> build<00:05:53.120> a<00:05:53.199> system<00:05:53.440> around<00:05:53.720> that 00:05:54.629 --> 00:05:54.639 align:start position:0% if you if you build a system around that 00:05:54.639 --> 00:05:56.830 align:start position:0% if you if you build a system around that okay<00:05:55.039> but<00:05:55.280> I<00:05:55.360> was<00:05:55.600> wondering<00:05:56.160> if<00:05:56.319> I<00:05:56.440> could<00:05:56.639> push 00:05:56.830 --> 00:05:56.840 align:start position:0% okay but I was wondering if I could push 00:05:56.840 --> 00:05:58.550 align:start position:0% okay but I was wondering if I could push you<00:05:56.960> in<00:05:57.080> a<00:05:57.240> slightly<00:05:57.680> more<00:05:57.919> ambitious 00:05:58.550 --> 00:05:58.560 align:start position:0% you in a slightly more ambitious 00:05:58.560 --> 00:06:00.909 align:start position:0% you in a slightly more ambitious Direction<00:05:59.360> so<00:05:59.639> so<00:06:00.080> if<00:06:00.160> you<00:06:00.319> work<00:06:00.560> for<00:06:00.720> a 00:06:00.909 --> 00:06:00.919 align:start position:0% Direction so so if you work for a 00:06:00.919 --> 00:06:03.270 align:start position:0% Direction so so if you work for a sufficiently<00:06:01.560> large<00:06:02.000> organization<00:06:03.000> you<00:06:03.120> have 00:06:03.270 --> 00:06:03.280 align:start position:0% sufficiently large organization you have 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their<00:06:12.680> key<00:06:12.919> performance 00:06:13.510 --> 00:06:13.520 align:start position:0% they have their key performance 00:06:13.520 --> 00:06:17.629 align:start position:0% they have their key performance indicator<00:06:14.520> and<00:06:14.960> those<00:06:15.680> are<00:06:16.160> published<00:06:17.160> as 00:06:17.629 --> 00:06:17.639 align:start position:0% indicator and those are published as 00:06:17.639 --> 00:06:20.990 align:start position:0% indicator and those are published as predictions<00:06:18.560> on<00:06:18.720> a<00:06:18.919> prediction<00:06:19.479> market<00:06:20.280> so<00:06:20.800> if 00:06:20.990 --> 00:06:21.000 align:start position:0% predictions on a prediction market so if 00:06:21.000 --> 00:06:23.749 align:start position:0% predictions on a prediction market so if the<00:06:21.240> company<00:06:21.720> steers<00:06:22.199> left<00:06:23.000> and<00:06:23.160> the<00:06:23.319> price<00:06:23.599> of 00:06:23.749 --> 00:06:23.759 align:start position:0% the company steers left and the price of 00:06:23.759 --> 00:06:26.589 align:start position:0% the company steers left and the price of the<00:06:23.919> contract<00:06:24.479> tanks<00:06:25.440> that's<00:06:25.639> an<00:06:25.840> indication 00:06:26.589 --> 00:06:26.599 align:start position:0% the contract tanks that's an indication 00:06:26.599 --> 00:06:28.790 align:start position:0% the contract tanks that's an indication that<00:06:26.840> perhaps<00:06:27.240> should<00:06:27.440> be<00:06:27.639> starting<00:06:28.080> steering 00:06:28.790 --> 00:06:28.800 align:start position:0% that perhaps should be starting steering 00:06:28.800 --> 00:06:31.670 align:start position:0% that perhaps should be starting steering right<00:06:29.080> instead<00:06:30.000> so<00:06:30.280> do<00:06:30.400> you<00:06:30.599> see<00:06:30.840> that<00:06:31.039> as<00:06:31.160> a 00:06:31.670 --> 00:06:31.680 align:start position:0% right instead so do you see that as a 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community<00:06:40.160> it<00:06:40.280> seems<00:06:40.560> as<00:06:40.720> though 00:06:40.950 --> 00:06:40.960 align:start position:0% ethereum community it seems as though 00:06:40.960 --> 00:06:43.350 align:start position:0% ethereum community it seems as though lots<00:06:41.160> of<00:06:41.400> people<00:06:41.639> are<00:06:42.360> very<00:06:42.680> excited<00:06:43.080> about 00:06:43.350 --> 00:06:43.360 align:start position:0% lots of people are very excited about 00:06:43.360 --> 00:06:45.110 align:start position:0% lots of people are very excited about this<00:06:43.560> idea<00:06:43.840> of<00:06:44.039> making<00:06:44.319> their<00:06:44.479> own<00:06:44.680> ethereum 00:06:45.110 --> 00:06:45.120 align:start position:0% this idea of making their own ethereum 00:06:45.120 --> 00:06:48.589 align:start position:0% this idea of making their own ethereum startups<00:06:45.639> be<00:06:46.000> daos<00:06:47.000> and<00:06:47.599> you<00:06:47.720> know<00:06:48.039> if<00:06:48.400> you 00:06:48.589 --> 00:06:48.599 align:start position:0% startups be daos and you know if you 00:06:48.599 --> 00:06:50.189 align:start position:0% startups be daos and you know if you want<00:06:48.880> to<00:06:49.080> create<00:06:49.360> a<00:06:49.479> blockchain<00:06:49.919> based 00:06:50.189 --> 00:06:50.199 align:start position:0% want to create a blockchain based 00:06:50.199 --> 00:06:52.350 align:start position:0% want to create a blockchain based organization<00:06:50.919> then<00:06:51.080> you<00:06:51.280> definitely<00:06:51.759> need<00:06:52.039> to 00:06:52.350 --> 00:06:52.360 align:start position:0% organization then you definitely need to 00:06:52.360 --> 00:06:54.589 align:start position:0% organization then you definitely need to have<00:06:53.160> some<00:06:53.440> kind<00:06:53.639> of<00:06:53.800> blockchainbased 00:06:54.589 --> 00:06:54.599 align:start position:0% have some kind of blockchainbased 00:06:54.599 --> 00:06:57.670 align:start position:0% have some kind of blockchainbased governance<00:06:55.599> so<00:06:56.440> you<00:06:56.560> know<00:06:57.160> having<00:06:57.440> people 00:06:57.670 --> 00:06:57.680 align:start position:0% governance so you know having people 00:06:57.680 --> 00:07:00.350 align:start position:0% governance so you know having people vote<00:06:57.919> as<00:06:58.080> one<00:06:58.319> approach<00:06:59.039> um<00:06:59.680> it<00:06:59.840> also<00:07:00.120> has 00:07:00.350 --> 00:07:00.360 align:start position:0% vote as one approach um it also has 00:07:00.360 --> 00:07:02.749 align:start position:0% vote as one approach um it also has weaknesses<00:07:01.360> so<00:07:01.639> for<00:07:01.840> example<00:07:02.280> one<00:07:02.520> very 00:07:02.749 --> 00:07:02.759 align:start position:0% weaknesses so for example one very 00:07:02.759 --> 00:07:04.749 align:start position:0% weaknesses so for example one very simple<00:07:03.080> one<00:07:03.360> that<00:07:03.560> I<00:07:03.680> think<00:07:03.960> people<00:07:04.400> might<00:07:04.599> be 00:07:04.749 --> 00:07:04.759 align:start position:0% simple one that I think people might be 00:07:04.759 --> 00:07:07.070 align:start position:0% simple one that I think people might be overlooking<00:07:05.319> a<00:07:05.479> bit<00:07:05.759> is<00:07:06.479> if<00:07:06.560> you<00:07:06.720> have<00:07:06.879> the 00:07:07.070 --> 00:07:07.080 align:start position:0% overlooking a bit is if you have the 00:07:07.080 --> 00:07:08.469 align:start position:0% overlooking a bit is if you have the simple<00:07:07.400> approach<00:07:07.759> where<00:07:07.919> you<00:07:08.000> know<00:07:08.240> people 00:07:08.469 --> 00:07:08.479 align:start position:0% simple approach where you know people 00:07:08.479 --> 00:07:10.230 align:start position:0% simple approach where you know people vote<00:07:08.840> people<00:07:09.080> become<00:07:09.479> automatically<00:07:10.000> become 00:07:10.230 --> 00:07:10.240 align:start position:0% vote people become automatically become 00:07:10.240 --> 00:07:11.869 align:start position:0% vote people become automatically become shareholders<00:07:10.879> and<00:07:11.039> shareholders<00:07:11.560> vote<00:07:11.720> on 00:07:11.869 --> 00:07:11.879 align:start position:0% shareholders and shareholders vote on 00:07:11.879 --> 00:07:13.710 align:start position:0% shareholders and shareholders vote on where<00:07:12.000> the<00:07:12.080> money<00:07:12.360> goes<00:07:13.240> then<00:07:13.440> you<00:07:13.560> know 00:07:13.710 --> 00:07:13.720 align:start position:0% where the money goes then you know 00:07:13.720 --> 00:07:15.550 align:start position:0% where the money goes then you know here's<00:07:14.000> one<00:07:14.120> thing<00:07:14.280> that<00:07:14.400> I<00:07:14.520> could<00:07:14.720> do<00:07:15.319> let's 00:07:15.550 --> 00:07:15.560 align:start position:0% here's one thing that I could do let's 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the<00:07:22.919> last<00:07:23.160> in<00:07:23.280> the<00:07:23.400> last<00:07:23.720> hour<00:07:24.039> I<00:07:24.199> dunk<00:07:24.440> in 00:07:24.670 --> 00:07:24.680 align:start position:0% on the last in the last hour I dunk in 00:07:24.680 --> 00:07:28.909 align:start position:0% on the last in the last hour I dunk in $100,000<00:07:25.680> I<00:07:25.840> get<00:07:26.360> 55%<00:07:27.360> and<00:07:27.879> and<00:07:28.199> I<00:07:28.479> I<00:07:28.639> make<00:07:28.800> a 00:07:28.909 --> 00:07:28.919 align:start position:0% $100,000 I get 55% and and I I make a 00:07:28.919 --> 00:07:32.350 align:start position:0% $100,000 I get 55% and and I I make a motion<00:07:29.319> to<00:07:29.680> sends<00:07:30.080> $180,000<00:07:31.080> back<00:07:31.199> to<00:07:31.440> myself 00:07:32.350 --> 00:07:32.360 align:start position:0% motion to sends $180,000 back to myself 00:07:32.360 --> 00:07:34.950 align:start position:0% motion to sends $180,000 back to myself and<00:07:32.599> I<00:07:32.720> have<00:07:32.879> 55%<00:07:33.520> of<00:07:33.599> the<00:07:33.720> vote<00:07:33.919> and<00:07:34.039> so<00:07:34.199> I<00:07:34.319> win 00:07:34.950 --> 00:07:34.960 align:start position:0% and I have 55% of the vote and so I win 00:07:34.960 --> 00:07:36.430 align:start position:0% and I have 55% of the vote and so I win so<00:07:35.160> this<00:07:35.280> is<00:07:35.479> basically<00:07:35.840> the<00:07:35.960> reason<00:07:36.240> why<00:07:36.360> in 00:07:36.430 --> 00:07:36.440 align:start position:0% so this is basically the reason why in 00:07:36.440 --> 00:07:37.790 align:start position:0% so this is basically the reason why in the<00:07:36.560> real<00:07:36.759> world<00:07:37.039> we<00:07:37.199> have<00:07:37.400> things<00:07:37.639> like 00:07:37.790 --> 00:07:37.800 align:start position:0% the real world we have things like 00:07:37.800 --> 00:07:41.110 align:start position:0% the real world we have things like minority<00:07:38.199> shareholder<00:07:38.960> protections<00:07:40.120> so 00:07:41.110 --> 00:07:41.120 align:start position:0% minority shareholder protections so 00:07:41.120 --> 00:07:43.110 align:start position:0% minority shareholder protections so basically<00:07:41.800> the<00:07:41.960> point<00:07:42.199> of<00:07:42.440> this<00:07:42.720> is<00:07:42.879> that 00:07:43.110 --> 00:07:43.120 align:start position:0% basically the point of this is that 00:07:43.120 --> 00:07:46.070 align:start position:0% basically the point of this is that governance<00:07:44.000> mechanisms<00:07:45.000> especially<00:07:45.720> those 00:07:46.070 --> 00:07:46.080 align:start position:0% governance mechanisms especially those 00:07:46.080 --> 00:07:50.110 align:start position:0% governance mechanisms especially those for<00:07:46.919> a<00:07:47.159> system<00:07:47.639> that's<00:07:47.919> kind<00:07:48.080> of<00:07:48.400> intended<00:07:49.120> to 00:07:50.110 --> 00:07:50.120 align:start position:0% for a system that's kind of intended to 00:07:50.120 --> 00:07:52.149 align:start position:0% for a system that's kind of intended to really<00:07:50.440> sort<00:07:50.599> of<00:07:50.759> stand<00:07:51.199> the<00:07:51.479> stand<00:07:51.759> the<00:07:51.879> test 00:07:52.149 --> 00:07:52.159 align:start position:0% really sort of stand the stand the test 00:07:52.159 --> 00:07:54.869 align:start position:0% really sort of stand the stand the test of<00:07:52.400> time<00:07:52.840> and<00:07:53.599> even<00:07:53.879> without<00:07:54.159> sort<00:07:54.360> of<00:07:54.479> relying 00:07:54.869 --> 00:07:54.879 align:start position:0% of time and even without sort of relying 00:07:54.879 --> 00:07:57.990 align:start position:0% of time and even without sort of relying on<00:07:55.120> manual<00:07:56.120> human<00:07:56.440> inter<00:07:57.159> intervention<00:07:57.840> you 00:07:57.990 --> 00:07:58.000 align:start position:0% on manual human inter intervention you 00:07:58.000 --> 00:08:00.869 align:start position:0% on manual human inter intervention you know<00:07:58.199> potentially<00:07:58.800> ever<00:07:59.599> it's<00:08:00.280> figuring<00:08:00.720> out 00:08:00.869 --> 00:08:00.879 align:start position:0% know potentially ever it's figuring out 00:08:00.879 --> 00:08:02.749 align:start position:0% know potentially ever it's figuring out sort<00:08:01.080> of<00:08:01.199> effective<00:08:01.599> governance<00:08:02.039> mechanisms 00:08:02.749 --> 00:08:02.759 align:start position:0% sort of effective governance mechanisms 00:08:02.759 --> 00:08:05.510 align:start position:0% sort of effective governance mechanisms is<00:08:03.360> a<00:08:03.560> very<00:08:04.080> a<00:08:04.240> very<00:08:04.520> hard<00:08:04.720> and<00:08:04.960> interesting 00:08:05.510 --> 00:08:05.520 align:start position:0% is a very a very hard and interesting 00:08:05.520 --> 00:08:07.070 align:start position:0% is a very a very hard and interesting problem<00:08:05.800> and<00:08:05.919> I<00:08:06.039> could<00:08:06.159> easily<00:08:06.479> see 00:08:07.070 --> 00:08:07.080 align:start position:0% problem and I could easily see 00:08:07.080 --> 00:08:08.710 align:start position:0% problem and I could easily see projection<00:08:07.560> markets<00:08:07.919> playing<00:08:08.159> a<00:08:08.280> part<00:08:08.440> in 00:08:08.710 --> 00:08:08.720 align:start position:0% projection markets playing a part in 00:08:08.720 --> 00:08:12.589 align:start position:0% projection markets playing a part in that<00:08:09.720> okay<00:08:10.000> anyone<00:08:10.319> else<00:08:10.479> on<00:08:10.680> this<00:08:11.360> I<00:08:11.440> think<00:08:11.840> uh 00:08:12.589 --> 00:08:12.599 align:start position:0% that okay anyone else on this I think uh 00:08:12.599 --> 00:08:16.189 align:start position:0% that okay anyone else on this I think uh one<00:08:13.000> really<00:08:13.319> nice<00:08:13.840> example<00:08:14.400> to<00:08:14.919> to<00:08:15.199> showcast 00:08:16.189 --> 00:08:16.199 align:start position:0% one really nice example to to showcast 00:08:16.199 --> 00:08:18.430 align:start position:0% one really nice example to to showcast uh<00:08:16.520> this<00:08:16.720> governance<00:08:17.280> thing<00:08:17.840> could<00:08:18.039> be<00:08:18.240> and 00:08:18.430 --> 00:08:18.440 align:start position:0% uh this governance thing could be and 00:08:18.440 --> 00:08:20.629 align:start position:0% uh this governance thing could be and I'm<00:08:18.560> looking<00:08:18.800> forward<00:08:19.120> to<00:08:19.319> to<00:08:19.440> do<00:08:19.599> it<00:08:20.199> uh<00:08:20.319> to<00:08:20.520> to 00:08:20.629 --> 00:08:20.639 align:start position:0% I'm looking forward to to do it uh to to 00:08:20.639 --> 00:08:23.469 align:start position:0% I'm looking forward to to do it uh to to play<00:08:20.800> a<00:08:20.919> chess<00:08:21.240> game<00:08:22.120> to<00:08:22.720> um<00:08:23.039> the<00:08:23.240> key 00:08:23.469 --> 00:08:23.479 align:start position:0% play a chess game to um the key 00:08:23.479 --> 00:08:25.110 align:start position:0% play a chess game to um the key performance<00:08:23.919> indicator<00:08:24.560> as<00:08:24.680> you<00:08:24.800> mentioned 00:08:25.110 --> 00:08:25.120 align:start position:0% performance indicator as you mentioned 00:08:25.120 --> 00:08:29.110 align:start position:0% performance indicator as you mentioned it<00:08:25.280> would<00:08:25.440> be<00:08:26.080> will<00:08:26.680> um<00:08:27.479> will<00:08:27.680> we<00:08:27.840> win<00:08:28.080> the<00:08:28.240> game 00:08:29.110 --> 00:08:29.120 align:start position:0% it would be will um will we win the game 00:08:29.120 --> 00:08:30.869 align:start position:0% it would be will um will we win the game on<00:08:29.240> the<00:08:29.520> one<00:08:29.639> hand<00:08:29.800> the<00:08:29.879> prediction<00:08:30.240> market 00:08:30.869 --> 00:08:30.879 align:start position:0% on the one hand the prediction market 00:08:30.879 --> 00:08:32.949 align:start position:0% on the one hand the prediction market and<00:08:31.039> then<00:08:31.280> you<00:08:31.440> could<00:08:32.200> uh<00:08:32.320> you<00:08:32.440> could<00:08:32.719> for 00:08:32.949 --> 00:08:32.959 align:start position:0% and then you could uh you could for 00:08:32.959 --> 00:08:35.469 align:start position:0% and then you could uh you could for every<00:08:33.240> move<00:08:34.080> have<00:08:34.279> different<00:08:34.560> markets<00:08:35.240> and 00:08:35.469 --> 00:08:35.479 align:start position:0% every move have different markets and 00:08:35.479 --> 00:08:37.469 align:start position:0% every move have different markets and and<00:08:35.599> see<00:08:36.320> what's<00:08:36.519> the<00:08:36.640> likelihood<00:08:37.039> to<00:08:37.159> win<00:08:37.320> the 00:08:37.469 --> 00:08:37.479 align:start position:0% and see what's the likelihood to win the 00:08:37.479 --> 00:08:39.230 align:start position:0% and see what's the likelihood to win the game<00:08:37.680> under<00:08:37.919> the<00:08:38.200> condition<00:08:38.360> of<00:08:38.519> this<00:08:38.680> move 00:08:39.230 --> 00:08:39.240 align:start position:0% game under the condition of this move 00:08:39.240 --> 00:08:41.949 align:start position:0% game under the condition of this move and<00:08:39.399> on<00:08:39.560> the<00:08:39.680> other<00:08:39.959> side<00:08:40.200> you<00:08:40.320> have<00:08:40.560> a<00:08:41.560> very 00:08:41.949 --> 00:08:41.959 align:start position:0% and on the other side you have a very 00:08:41.959 --> 00:08:44.470 align:start position:0% and on the other side you have a very strong<00:08:42.159> player<00:08:43.000> and<00:08:43.519> it<00:08:43.640> would<00:08:43.800> be<00:08:44.240> really 00:08:44.470 --> 00:08:44.480 align:start position:0% strong player and it would be really 00:08:44.480 --> 00:08:46.310 align:start position:0% strong player and it would be really nice<00:08:44.720> showcase<00:08:45.279> if<00:08:45.480> the<00:08:45.640> prediction<00:08:46.040> Market 00:08:46.310 --> 00:08:46.320 align:start position:0% nice showcase if the prediction Market 00:08:46.320 --> 00:08:48.910 align:start position:0% nice showcase if the prediction Market could<00:08:46.480> beat<00:08:47.160> a<00:08:47.320> very<00:08:47.640> strong 00:08:48.910 --> 00:08:48.920 align:start position:0% could beat a very strong 00:08:48.920 --> 00:08:52.870 align:start position:0% could beat a very strong player<00:08:49.920> I<00:08:50.000> think<00:08:50.240> that<00:08:50.600> the<00:08:51.440> um<00:08:52.440> you<00:08:52.560> know<00:08:52.839> I 00:08:52.870 --> 00:08:52.880 align:start position:0% player I think that the um you know I 00:08:52.880 --> 00:08:55.230 align:start position:0% player I think that the um you know I mean<00:08:53.240> one<00:08:53.320> of<00:08:53.519> the<00:08:53.839> examples<00:08:54.399> that<00:08:54.680> that's 00:08:55.230 --> 00:08:55.240 align:start position:0% mean one of the examples that that's 00:08:55.240 --> 00:08:56.870 align:start position:0% mean one of the examples that that's thrown<00:08:55.560> around<00:08:55.760> for<00:08:56.279> you<00:08:56.360> know<00:08:56.519> prediction 00:08:56.870 --> 00:08:56.880 align:start position:0% thrown around for you know prediction 00:08:56.880 --> 00:08:58.790 align:start position:0% thrown around for you know prediction markets<00:08:57.160> as<00:08:57.320> governance<00:08:57.800> is<00:08:58.079> just<00:08:58.360> like<00:08:58.680> you 00:08:58.790 --> 00:08:58.800 align:start position:0% markets as governance is just like you 00:08:58.800 --> 00:09:00.750 align:start position:0% markets as governance is just like you know<00:08:58.959> will<00:08:59.160> the<00:08:59.440> share<00:08:59.640> price<00:08:59.920> go<00:09:00.279> up<00:09:00.440> or<00:09:00.600> down 00:09:00.750 --> 00:09:00.760 align:start position:0% know will the share price go up or down 00:09:00.760 --> 00:09:03.430 align:start position:0% know will the share price go up or down if<00:09:00.920> this<00:09:01.079> person<00:09:01.279> is<00:09:01.399> elected<00:09:02.120> uh<00:09:02.279> CEO<00:09:03.079> and<00:09:03.279> by 00:09:03.430 --> 00:09:03.440 align:start position:0% if this person is elected uh CEO and by 00:09:03.440 --> 00:09:04.509 align:start position:0% if this person is elected uh CEO and by by<00:09:03.519> making<00:09:03.720> it<00:09:03.839> a<00:09:03.959> market<00:09:04.200> you<00:09:04.279> know<00:09:04.399> you 00:09:04.509 --> 00:09:04.519 align:start position:0% by making it a market you know you 00:09:04.519 --> 00:09:07.150 align:start position:0% by making it a market you know you attach<00:09:04.760> a<00:09:04.880> financial<00:09:05.279> incentive<00:09:05.720> to<00:09:05.880> it<00:09:06.519> and 00:09:07.150 --> 00:09:07.160 align:start position:0% attach a financial incentive to it and 00:09:07.160 --> 00:09:08.470 align:start position:0% attach a financial incentive to it and um<00:09:07.399> I<00:09:07.480> think<00:09:07.560> it<00:09:07.640> becomes<00:09:07.920> more<00:09:08.040> meaningful 00:09:08.470 --> 00:09:08.480 align:start position:0% um I think it becomes more meaningful 00:09:08.480 --> 00:09:10.030 align:start position:0% um I think it becomes more meaningful than<00:09:08.760> just<00:09:08.880> say<00:09:09.079> a 00:09:10.030 --> 00:09:10.040 align:start position:0% than just say a 00:09:10.040 --> 00:09:12.910 align:start position:0% than just say a vote<00:09:11.040> okay<00:09:11.240> and<00:09:11.360> so<00:09:11.600> now<00:09:11.839> let's<00:09:12.120> explore<00:09:12.680> the 00:09:12.910 --> 00:09:12.920 align:start position:0% vote okay and so now let's explore the 00:09:12.920 --> 00:09:15.110 align:start position:0% vote okay and so now let's explore the other<00:09:13.240> end<00:09:13.800> of<00:09:13.920> the<00:09:14.040> prediction<00:09:14.680> now<00:09:14.800> suppose 00:09:15.110 --> 00:09:15.120 align:start position:0% other end of the prediction now suppose 00:09:15.120 --> 00:09:18.389 align:start position:0% other end of the prediction now suppose you<00:09:15.399> do<00:09:15.760> have<00:09:16.360> in<00:09:16.640> place<00:09:17.440> liquid<00:09:18.120> well 00:09:18.389 --> 00:09:18.399 align:start position:0% you do have in place liquid well 00:09:18.399 --> 00:09:20.509 align:start position:0% you do have in place liquid well functioning<00:09:19.000> efficient<00:09:19.440> prediction<00:09:19.839> markets 00:09:20.509 --> 00:09:20.519 align:start position:0% functioning efficient prediction markets 00:09:20.519 --> 00:09:22.470 align:start position:0% functioning efficient prediction markets how<00:09:20.640> do<00:09:20.760> you<00:09:20.920> teach<00:09:21.200> people<00:09:21.519> to<00:09:21.760> extract<00:09:22.360> who 00:09:22.470 --> 00:09:22.480 align:start position:0% how do you teach people to extract who 00:09:22.480 --> 00:09:25.230 align:start position:0% how do you teach people to extract who are<00:09:22.720> not<00:09:23.480> necessarily<00:09:24.200> directly<00:09:24.680> involved<00:09:25.079> in 00:09:25.230 --> 00:09:25.240 align:start position:0% are not necessarily directly involved in 00:09:25.240 --> 00:09:27.470 align:start position:0% are not necessarily directly involved in the<00:09:25.360> events<00:09:25.760> that<00:09:25.880> are<00:09:26.079> predicted<00:09:26.839> to<00:09:27.200> to 00:09:27.470 --> 00:09:27.480 align:start position:0% the events that are predicted to to 00:09:27.480 --> 00:09:29.910 align:start position:0% the events that are predicted to to extract<00:09:28.200> a<00:09:28.360> signal<00:09:28.800> out<00:09:28.959> of<00:09:29.079> it<00:09:29.240> that<00:09:29.560> can<00:09:29.680> use 00:09:29.910 --> 00:09:29.920 align:start position:0% extract a signal out of it that can use 00:09:29.920 --> 00:09:31.910 align:start position:0% extract a signal out of it that can use for<00:09:30.079> their<00:09:30.320> activities<00:09:30.959> and<00:09:31.200> possibly<00:09:31.640> within 00:09:31.910 --> 00:09:31.920 align:start position:0% for their activities and possibly within 00:09:31.920 --> 00:09:33.470 align:start position:0% for their activities and possibly within the<00:09:32.040> blockchain 00:09:33.470 --> 00:09:33.480 align:start position:0% the blockchain 00:09:33.480 --> 00:09:35.829 align:start position:0% the blockchain itself<00:09:34.480> well<00:09:34.880> I<00:09:34.959> think<00:09:35.120> that<00:09:35.279> if<00:09:35.399> it<00:09:35.560> if<00:09:35.640> it's 00:09:35.829 --> 00:09:35.839 align:start position:0% itself well I think that if it if it's 00:09:35.839 --> 00:09:37.949 align:start position:0% itself well I think that if it if it's really<00:09:36.000> well<00:09:36.320> functioning<00:09:37.320> um<00:09:37.560> and<00:09:37.680> if<00:09:37.760> you've 00:09:37.949 --> 00:09:37.959 align:start position:0% really well functioning um and if you've 00:09:37.959 --> 00:09:39.310 align:start position:0% really well functioning um and if you've really<00:09:38.120> got<00:09:38.279> reliable<00:09:38.720> information<00:09:39.160> then 00:09:39.310 --> 00:09:39.320 align:start position:0% really got reliable information then 00:09:39.320 --> 00:09:40.949 align:start position:0% really got reliable information then actually<00:09:39.519> world<00:09:39.760> will<00:09:39.880> spread<00:09:40.519> that<00:09:40.720> quite<00:09:40.880> I 00:09:40.949 --> 00:09:40.959 align:start position:0% actually world will spread that quite I 00:09:40.959 --> 00:09:43.389 align:start position:0% actually world will spread that quite I mean<00:09:41.079> and<00:09:41.440> it's<00:09:41.720> it's<00:09:41.920> quite<00:09:42.120> well<00:09:42.320> known<00:09:43.200> how 00:09:43.389 --> 00:09:43.399 align:start position:0% mean and it's it's quite well known how 00:09:43.399 --> 00:09:44.829 align:start position:0% mean and it's it's quite well known how well<00:09:43.680> prediction<00:09:44.040> markets<00:09:44.560> have<00:09:44.680> been 00:09:44.829 --> 00:09:44.839 align:start position:0% well prediction markets have been 00:09:44.839 --> 00:09:46.430 align:start position:0% well prediction markets have been performing<00:09:45.360> for<00:09:45.480> example<00:09:45.760> outperforming 00:09:46.430 --> 00:09:46.440 align:start position:0% performing for example outperforming 00:09:46.440 --> 00:09:48.710 align:start position:0% performing for example outperforming pundits<00:09:47.440> um<00:09:47.839> in<00:09:47.959> predicting<00:09:48.360> you<00:09:48.440> know<00:09:48.560> who's 00:09:48.710 --> 00:09:48.720 align:start position:0% pundits um in predicting you know who's 00:09:48.720 --> 00:09:50.389 align:start position:0% pundits um in predicting you know who's going<00:09:48.800> to<00:09:48.880> win<00:09:49.079> elections<00:09:49.959> um<00:09:50.040> so<00:09:50.200> I<00:09:50.279> think 00:09:50.389 --> 00:09:50.399 align:start position:0% going to win elections um so I think 00:09:50.399 --> 00:09:52.030 align:start position:0% going to win elections um so I think that<00:09:50.560> once<00:09:50.720> it's<00:09:50.880> a<00:09:51.079> it's<00:09:51.240> clearly<00:09:51.480> a<00:09:51.600> valid 00:09:52.030 --> 00:09:52.040 align:start position:0% that once it's a it's clearly a valid 00:09:52.040 --> 00:09:53.190 align:start position:0% that once it's a it's clearly a valid source<00:09:52.279> of<00:09:52.440> information<00:09:52.839> it's<00:09:52.959> going<00:09:53.040> to<00:09:53.120> be 00:09:53.190 --> 00:09:53.200 align:start position:0% source of information it's going to be 00:09:53.200 --> 00:09:56.230 align:start position:0% source of information it's going to be no<00:09:53.480> problem<00:09:54.320> um<00:09:55.000> getting<00:09:55.360> people<00:09:55.600> to<00:09:55.839> actually 00:09:56.230 --> 00:09:56.240 align:start position:0% no problem um getting people to actually 00:09:56.240 --> 00:09:57.750 align:start position:0% no problem um getting people to actually use<00:09:56.480> that<00:09:56.680> information<00:09:57.320> the<00:09:57.600> difficult 00:09:57.750 --> 00:09:57.760 align:start position:0% use that information the difficult 00:09:57.760 --> 00:09:59.030 align:start position:0% use that information the difficult problem<00:09:57.959> is<00:09:58.120> making<00:09:58.399> it<00:09:58.560> actually<00:09:58.760> a<00:09:58.839> valid 00:09:59.030 --> 00:09:59.040 align:start position:0% problem is making it actually a valid 00:09:59.040 --> 00:10:00.829 align:start position:0% problem is making it actually a valid source<00:09:59.519> information<00:10:00.320> that<00:10:00.440> isn't<00:10:00.640> going<00:10:00.760> to 00:10:00.829 --> 00:10:00.839 align:start position:0% source information that isn't going to 00:10:00.839 --> 00:10:02.030 align:start position:0% source information that isn't going to be<00:10:00.959> gained<00:10:01.320> isn't<00:10:01.519> going<00:10:01.600> to<00:10:01.800> going<00:10:01.880> to<00:10:01.959> be 00:10:02.030 --> 00:10:02.040 align:start position:0% be gained isn't going to going to be 00:10:02.040 --> 00:10:03.269 align:start position:0% be gained isn't going to going to be messed<00:10:02.279> with<00:10:02.560> I<00:10:02.640> mean<00:10:02.800> I<00:10:02.920> think<00:10:03.040> there 00:10:03.269 --> 00:10:03.279 align:start position:0% messed with I mean I think there 00:10:03.279 --> 00:10:04.829 align:start position:0% messed with I mean I think there definitely<00:10:03.680> is<00:10:03.880> such<00:10:04.040> a<00:10:04.160> thing<00:10:04.360> as<00:10:04.480> you<00:10:04.640> know 00:10:04.829 --> 00:10:04.839 align:start position:0% definitely is such a thing as you know 00:10:04.839 --> 00:10:07.990 align:start position:0% definitely is such a thing as you know markets<00:10:05.720> sort<00:10:05.880> of<00:10:06.040> Market<00:10:06.360> maturity<00:10:06.920> and<00:10:07.440> and 00:10:07.990 --> 00:10:08.000 align:start position:0% markets sort of Market maturity and and 00:10:08.000 --> 00:10:09.870 align:start position:0% markets sort of Market maturity and and liquidity<00:10:08.519> actually<00:10:08.760> jumping<00:10:09.040> onto<00:10:09.320> a<00:10:09.440> market 00:10:09.870 --> 00:10:09.880 align:start position:0% liquidity actually jumping onto a market 00:10:09.880 --> 00:10:11.870 align:start position:0% liquidity actually jumping onto a market because<00:10:10.399> you<00:10:10.519> know<00:10:10.680> we<00:10:10.800> see<00:10:11.160> right<00:10:11.360> now<00:10:11.720> we 00:10:11.870 --> 00:10:11.880 align:start position:0% because you know we see right now we 00:10:11.880 --> 00:10:13.470 align:start position:0% because you know we see right now we already<00:10:12.200> have<00:10:12.360> a<00:10:12.480> bunch<00:10:12.680> of<00:10:13.040> prediction 00:10:13.470 --> 00:10:13.480 align:start position:0% already have a bunch of prediction 00:10:13.480 --> 00:10:15.870 align:start position:0% already have a bunch of prediction markets<00:10:13.920> on<00:10:14.440> group<00:10:14.720> on<00:10:14.880> group<00:10:15.200> gnosis<00:10:15.680> Happ 00:10:15.870 --> 00:10:15.880 align:start position:0% markets on group on group gnosis Happ 00:10:15.880 --> 00:10:18.230 align:start position:0% markets on group on group gnosis Happ trading<00:10:16.320> this<00:10:16.519> week<00:10:17.399> and<00:10:17.640> I'm<00:10:17.800> pleased<00:10:18.079> to 00:10:18.230 --> 00:10:18.240 align:start position:0% trading this week and I'm pleased to 00:10:18.240 --> 00:10:20.310 align:start position:0% trading this week and I'm pleased to announce<00:10:18.600> that<00:10:18.720> I<00:10:19.040> earned<00:10:19.320> about<00:10:19.560> 25<00:10:20.000> ether 00:10:20.310 --> 00:10:20.320 align:start position:0% announce that I earned about 25 ether 00:10:20.320 --> 00:10:23.470 align:start position:0% announce that I earned about 25 ether insider<00:10:20.760> trading<00:10:21.200> this 00:10:23.470 --> 00:10:23.480 align:start position:0% 00:10:23.480 --> 00:10:25.430 align:start position:0% week 00:10:25.430 --> 00:10:25.440 align:start position:0% week 00:10:25.440 --> 00:10:27.829 align:start position:0% week so<00:10:26.440> for<00:10:26.640> those<00:10:26.800> who<00:10:26.920> work<00:10:27.120> here<00:10:27.240> on<00:10:27.360> Monday<00:10:27.720> the 00:10:27.829 --> 00:10:27.839 align:start position:0% so for those who work here on Monday the 00:10:27.839 --> 00:10:29.310 align:start position:0% so for those who work here on Monday the story<00:10:28.120> is<00:10:28.320> basically<00:10:28.800> there<00:10:28.880> was<00:10:29.000> a<00:10:29.079> market 00:10:29.310 --> 00:10:29.320 align:start position:0% story is basically there was a market 00:10:29.320 --> 00:10:30.430 align:start position:0% story is basically there was a market maret<00:10:29.519> on<00:10:29.680> whether<00:10:29.800> or<00:10:29.920> not<00:10:30.040> I'm<00:10:30.160> going<00:10:30.320> to 00:10:30.430 --> 00:10:30.440 align:start position:0% maret on whether or not I'm going to 00:10:30.440 --> 00:10:36.750 align:start position:0% maret on whether or not I'm going to wear<00:10:30.600> a<00:10:30.760> hat<00:10:31.079> again<00:10:31.320> this<00:10:31.640> week<00:10:32.640> um<00:10:34.079> so<00:10:35.079> the<00:10:35.760> uh 00:10:36.750 --> 00:10:36.760 align:start position:0% wear a hat again this week um so the uh 00:10:36.760 --> 00:10:39.110 align:start position:0% wear a hat again this week um so the uh other<00:10:37.040> Market<00:10:37.519> there<00:10:37.720> was<00:10:38.120> on<00:10:38.440> whether<00:10:38.639> or<00:10:38.839> not 00:10:39.110 --> 00:10:39.120 align:start position:0% other Market there was on whether or not 00:10:39.120 --> 00:10:41.750 align:start position:0% other Market there was on whether or not the<00:10:39.320> price<00:10:39.519> of<00:10:39.720> ether<00:10:40.279> would<00:10:40.920> be<00:10:41.240> higher<00:10:41.519> on 00:10:41.750 --> 00:10:41.760 align:start position:0% the price of ether would be higher on 00:10:41.760 --> 00:10:43.990 align:start position:0% the price of ether would be higher on Saturday<00:10:42.240> than<00:10:42.360> it<00:10:42.480> was<00:10:42.680> on<00:10:42.839> Monday<00:10:43.480> and<00:10:43.880> you 00:10:43.990 --> 00:10:44.000 align:start position:0% Saturday than it was on Monday and you 00:10:44.000 --> 00:10:45.590 align:start position:0% Saturday than it was on Monday and you know<00:10:44.160> if<00:10:44.320> markets<00:10:44.639> were<00:10:44.839> efficient<00:10:45.279> at<00:10:45.360> all<00:10:45.519> we 00:10:45.590 --> 00:10:45.600 align:start position:0% know if markets were efficient at all we 00:10:45.600 --> 00:10:47.150 align:start position:0% know if markets were efficient at all we would<00:10:45.839> probably<00:10:46.120> see<00:10:46.320> the<00:10:46.480> probability<00:10:47.000> of 00:10:47.150 --> 00:10:47.160 align:start position:0% would probably see the probability of 00:10:47.160 --> 00:10:48.629 align:start position:0% would probably see the probability of pretty<00:10:47.399> efficiently<00:10:47.880> kind<00:10:48.000> of<00:10:48.160> track<00:10:48.519> you 00:10:48.629 --> 00:10:48.639 align:start position:0% pretty efficiently kind of track you 00:10:48.639 --> 00:10:50.670 align:start position:0% pretty efficiently kind of track you know<00:10:49.120> jump<00:10:49.440> down<00:10:49.720> quite<00:10:49.880> a<00:10:50.079> quite<00:10:50.240> a<00:10:50.360> bit<00:10:50.519> when 00:10:50.670 --> 00:10:50.680 align:start position:0% know jump down quite a quite a bit when 00:10:50.680 --> 00:10:52.310 align:start position:0% know jump down quite a quite a bit when the<00:10:51.040> when<00:10:51.160> the<00:10:51.279> price<00:10:51.519> goes<00:10:51.720> down<00:10:51.959> go<00:10:52.079> up<00:10:52.200> when 00:10:52.310 --> 00:10:52.320 align:start position:0% the when the price goes down go up when 00:10:52.320 --> 00:10:54.590 align:start position:0% the when the price goes down go up when the<00:10:52.399> price<00:10:52.600> goes<00:10:52.800> up<00:10:52.959> and<00:10:53.079> so<00:10:53.320> forth<00:10:53.760> so<00:10:54.480> you 00:10:54.590 --> 00:10:54.600 align:start position:0% the price goes up and so forth so you 00:10:54.600 --> 00:10:57.829 align:start position:0% the price goes up and so forth so you know<00:10:55.040> the<00:10:56.040> you<00:10:56.200> could<00:10:56.440> EAS<00:10:56.760> it's<00:10:56.959> kind<00:10:57.079> of<00:10:57.440> easy 00:10:57.829 --> 00:10:57.839 align:start position:0% know the you could EAS it's kind of easy 00:10:57.839 --> 00:11:00.190 align:start position:0% know the you could EAS it's kind of easy to<00:10:58.320> just<00:10:58.519> as<00:10:58.639> an<00:10:58.800> economist<00:10:59.320> to<00:10:59.480> kind<00:10:59.600> of<00:10:59.800> think 00:11:00.190 --> 00:11:00.200 align:start position:0% to just as an economist to kind of think 00:11:00.200 --> 00:11:02.069 align:start position:0% to just as an economist to kind of think that<00:11:00.360> you<00:11:00.480> know<00:11:01.079> if<00:11:01.360> basically<00:11:01.720> you<00:11:01.800> know<00:11:02.000> if 00:11:02.069 --> 00:11:02.079 align:start position:0% that you know if basically you know if 00:11:02.079 --> 00:11:04.190 align:start position:0% that you know if basically you know if you<00:11:02.279> set<00:11:02.560> the<00:11:02.680> incentives<00:11:03.160> they<00:11:03.279> will<00:11:03.519> come 00:11:04.190 --> 00:11:04.200 align:start position:0% you set the incentives they will come 00:11:04.200 --> 00:11:06.269 align:start position:0% you set the incentives they will come but<00:11:04.440> at<00:11:04.560> the<00:11:04.680> same<00:11:04.920> time<00:11:05.160> it<00:11:05.320> does<00:11:05.600> kind<00:11:05.720> of 00:11:06.269 --> 00:11:06.279 align:start position:0% but at the same time it does kind of 00:11:06.279 --> 00:11:07.870 align:start position:0% but at the same time it does kind of take<00:11:06.560> time<00:11:06.760> for<00:11:06.959> that<00:11:07.079> to<00:11:07.320> happen<00:11:07.600> and<00:11:07.760> you 00:11:07.870 --> 00:11:07.880 align:start position:0% take time for that to happen and you 00:11:07.880 --> 00:11:10.230 align:start position:0% take time for that to happen and you know<00:11:08.680> th<00:11:08.920> those<00:11:09.079> kinds<00:11:09.240> of<00:11:09.440> activities<00:11:09.959> it's 00:11:10.230 --> 00:11:10.240 align:start position:0% know th those kinds of activities it's 00:11:10.240 --> 00:11:11.470 align:start position:0% know th those kinds of activities it's important<00:11:10.560> not<00:11:10.680> to<00:11:10.800> forget<00:11:11.079> that<00:11:11.279> those 00:11:11.470 --> 00:11:11.480 align:start position:0% important not to forget that those 00:11:11.480 --> 00:11:13.190 align:start position:0% important not to forget that those activities<00:11:11.920> happening<00:11:12.399> actually<00:11:12.720> involves 00:11:13.190 --> 00:11:13.200 align:start position:0% activities happening actually involves 00:11:13.200 --> 00:11:15.150 align:start position:0% activities happening actually involves you<00:11:13.320> know<00:11:13.720> real<00:11:14.000> humans<00:11:14.360> doing<00:11:14.639> real<00:11:14.920> things 00:11:15.150 --> 00:11:15.160 align:start position:0% you know real humans doing real things 00:11:15.160 --> 00:11:16.629 align:start position:0% you know real humans doing real things and<00:11:15.360> actually<00:11:15.560> sort<00:11:15.720> of<00:11:15.839> writing<00:11:16.240> the<00:11:16.519> the 00:11:16.629 --> 00:11:16.639 align:start position:0% and actually sort of writing the the 00:11:16.639 --> 00:11:18.389 align:start position:0% and actually sort of writing the the Bots<00:11:16.959> or<00:11:17.120> you<00:11:17.200> know<00:11:17.360> doing<00:11:17.639> things<00:11:18.000> or<00:11:18.120> doing 00:11:18.389 --> 00:11:18.399 align:start position:0% Bots or you know doing things or doing 00:11:18.399 --> 00:11:20.790 align:start position:0% Bots or you know doing things or doing whatever<00:11:18.720> things<00:11:19.120> themselves<00:11:19.680> and<00:11:20.480> all<00:11:20.600> of 00:11:20.790 --> 00:11:20.800 align:start position:0% whatever things themselves and all of 00:11:20.800 --> 00:11:23.269 align:start position:0% whatever things themselves and all of that<00:11:21.040> kind<00:11:21.160> of<00:11:21.880> INF<00:11:22.320> real<00:11:22.560> infrastructural 00:11:23.269 --> 00:11:23.279 align:start position:0% that kind of INF real infrastructural 00:11:23.279 --> 00:11:25.829 align:start position:0% that kind of INF real infrastructural work<00:11:23.720> happening<00:11:24.720> so<00:11:25.000> I'm<00:11:25.160> actually<00:11:25.480> going<00:11:25.680> to 00:11:25.829 --> 00:11:25.839 align:start position:0% work happening so I'm actually going to 00:11:25.839 --> 00:11:28.670 align:start position:0% work happening so I'm actually going to latch<00:11:26.160> onto<00:11:26.440> the<00:11:26.639> last<00:11:26.959> comment<00:11:27.240> so<00:11:28.040> uh<00:11:28.560> we 00:11:28.670 --> 00:11:28.680 align:start position:0% latch onto the last comment so uh we 00:11:28.680 --> 00:11:31.150 align:start position:0% latch onto the last comment so uh we seem<00:11:28.880> to<00:11:29.000> be<00:11:29.480> in<00:11:29.800> an<00:11:29.959> unusual<00:11:30.480> crowd<00:11:30.880> here 00:11:31.150 --> 00:11:31.160 align:start position:0% seem to be in an unusual crowd here 00:11:31.160 --> 00:11:32.629 align:start position:0% seem to be in an unusual crowd here where<00:11:31.480> most<00:11:31.680> people<00:11:31.920> seem<00:11:32.120> to<00:11:32.279> have<00:11:32.399> a 00:11:32.629 --> 00:11:32.639 align:start position:0% where most people seem to have a 00:11:32.639 --> 00:11:34.430 align:start position:0% where most people seem to have a positive<00:11:33.120> opinion<00:11:33.440> of<00:11:33.600> prediction<00:11:34.000> markets 00:11:34.430 --> 00:11:34.440 align:start position:0% positive opinion of prediction markets 00:11:34.440 --> 00:11:37.829 align:start position:0% positive opinion of prediction markets but<00:11:34.600> that's<00:11:34.959> by<00:11:35.200> far<00:11:35.839> uh<00:11:36.000> not<00:11:36.279> the<00:11:36.519> norm<00:11:37.480> and<00:11:37.720> a 00:11:37.829 --> 00:11:37.839 align:start position:0% but that's by far uh not the norm and a 00:11:37.839 --> 00:11:39.710 align:start position:0% but that's by far uh not the norm and a lot<00:11:38.000> of<00:11:38.160> people<00:11:38.399> who<00:11:38.800> strongly<00:11:39.160> resist<00:11:39.560> to 00:11:39.710 --> 00:11:39.720 align:start position:0% lot of people who strongly resist to 00:11:39.720 --> 00:11:41.750 align:start position:0% lot of people who strongly resist to this<00:11:39.959> idea<00:11:40.440> are<00:11:40.639> actually<00:11:41.040> concerned<00:11:41.560> about 00:11:41.750 --> 00:11:41.760 align:start position:0% this idea are actually concerned about 00:11:41.760 --> 00:11:44.030 align:start position:0% this idea are actually concerned about the<00:11:41.959> possibility<00:11:42.639> of<00:11:42.839> somebody<00:11:43.279> with<00:11:43.480> Deep 00:11:44.030 --> 00:11:44.040 align:start position:0% the possibility of somebody with Deep 00:11:44.040 --> 00:11:47.190 align:start position:0% the possibility of somebody with Deep Pockets<00:11:45.040> um<00:11:45.440> moving<00:11:46.160> a<00:11:46.360> prediction<00:11:46.760> Market<00:11:47.120> in 00:11:47.190 --> 00:11:47.200 align:start position:0% Pockets um moving a prediction Market in 00:11:47.200 --> 00:11:49.509 align:start position:0% Pockets um moving a prediction Market in a<00:11:47.320> certain<00:11:47.720> direction<00:11:48.360> for<00:11:48.560> the<00:11:48.800> purpose<00:11:49.360> of 00:11:49.509 --> 00:11:49.519 align:start position:0% a certain direction for the purpose of 00:11:49.519 --> 00:11:51.470 align:start position:0% a certain direction for the purpose of taking<00:11:49.839> advantage<00:11:50.240> of<00:11:50.360> it<00:11:50.519> later<00:11:50.800> so<00:11:51.279> how 00:11:51.470 --> 00:11:51.480 align:start position:0% taking advantage of it later so how 00:11:51.480 --> 00:11:54.389 align:start position:0% taking advantage of it later so how would<00:11:51.680> you<00:11:52.000> guys<00:11:52.480> uh<00:11:52.920> uh<00:11:53.279> Comfort<00:11:53.839> allay<00:11:54.240> the 00:11:54.389 --> 00:11:54.399 align:start position:0% would you guys uh uh Comfort allay the 00:11:54.399 --> 00:11:56.629 align:start position:0% would you guys uh uh Comfort allay the fears<00:11:54.880> of<00:11:55.120> such<00:11:55.320> a<00:11:55.519> person<00:11:56.079> we<00:11:56.240> start<00:11:56.480> with 00:11:56.629 --> 00:11:56.639 align:start position:0% fears of such a person we start with 00:11:56.639 --> 00:11:59.470 align:start position:0% fears of such a person we start with Martin 00:11:59.470 --> 00:11:59.480 align:start position:0% Martin 00:11:59.480 --> 00:12:01.269 align:start position:0% Martin I<00:11:59.560> would<00:11:59.760> say<00:12:00.079> that's<00:12:00.320> that's<00:12:00.760> difficult 00:12:01.269 --> 00:12:01.279 align:start position:0% I would say that's that's difficult 00:12:01.279 --> 00:12:03.670 align:start position:0% I would say that's that's difficult because<00:12:02.000> uh<00:12:02.440> to<00:12:02.600> some<00:12:02.839> degree<00:12:03.160> I<00:12:03.279> also<00:12:03.519> have 00:12:03.670 --> 00:12:03.680 align:start position:0% because uh to some degree I also have 00:12:03.680 --> 00:12:09.990 align:start position:0% because uh to some degree I also have those<00:12:03.920> concerns<00:12:04.920> and<00:12:05.440> I<00:12:05.880> would<00:12:06.800> well<00:12:07.360> need<00:12:07.880> to 00:12:09.990 --> 00:12:10.000 align:start position:0% those concerns and I would well need to 00:12:10.000 --> 00:12:14.069 align:start position:0% those concerns and I would well need to um<00:12:11.000> really<00:12:11.360> paint<00:12:11.639> a<00:12:11.800> bigger<00:12:12.160> picture<00:12:12.639> of<00:12:13.000> a<00:12:13.880> of 00:12:14.069 --> 00:12:14.079 align:start position:0% um really paint a bigger picture of a of 00:12:14.079 --> 00:12:19.030 align:start position:0% um really paint a bigger picture of a of of<00:12:14.199> the<00:12:14.440> new<00:12:15.040> um<00:12:16.000> economy<00:12:16.800> where<00:12:17.959> where 00:12:19.030 --> 00:12:19.040 align:start position:0% of the new um economy where where 00:12:19.040 --> 00:12:22.870 align:start position:0% of the new um economy where where hopefully<00:12:20.040> um<00:12:21.000> well<00:12:21.199> more<00:12:21.519> people<00:12:21.880> get<00:12:22.560> uh 00:12:22.870 --> 00:12:22.880 align:start position:0% hopefully um well more people get uh 00:12:22.880 --> 00:12:25.069 align:start position:0% hopefully um well more people get uh directly<00:12:23.320> shareholders<00:12:23.959> of<00:12:24.199> things<00:12:24.519> they<00:12:24.680> do 00:12:25.069 --> 00:12:25.079 align:start position:0% directly shareholders of things they do 00:12:25.079 --> 00:12:27.310 align:start position:0% directly shareholders of things they do and<00:12:25.800> and<00:12:26.120> then<00:12:26.320> therefore<00:12:26.680> make<00:12:27.000> better 00:12:27.310 --> 00:12:27.320 align:start position:0% and and then therefore make better 00:12:27.320 --> 00:12:29.829 align:start position:0% and and then therefore make better better<00:12:27.600> decisions<00:12:28.199> and<00:12:28.399> and<00:12:28.600> therefore 00:12:29.829 --> 00:12:29.839 align:start position:0% better decisions and and therefore 00:12:29.839 --> 00:12:33.829 align:start position:0% better decisions and and therefore uh<00:12:29.959> money<00:12:30.800> cannot<00:12:31.519> influence<00:12:32.040> them<00:12:32.399> so<00:12:32.839> easy 00:12:33.829 --> 00:12:33.839 align:start position:0% uh money cannot influence them so easy 00:12:33.839 --> 00:12:39.269 align:start position:0% uh money cannot influence them so easy um<00:12:34.839> but<00:12:35.440> um<00:12:36.440> yeah<00:12:36.920> it<00:12:37.079> it's<00:12:37.399> it's<00:12:37.639> really<00:12:38.279> a 00:12:39.269 --> 00:12:39.279 align:start position:0% um but um yeah it it's it's really a 00:12:39.279 --> 00:12:41.269 align:start position:0% um but um yeah it it's it's really a bigger<00:12:39.760> bigger<00:12:40.079> bigger<00:12:40.320> answer<00:12:40.920> jump<00:12:41.120> over 00:12:41.269 --> 00:12:41.279 align:start position:0% bigger bigger bigger answer jump over 00:12:41.279 --> 00:12:42.350 align:start position:0% bigger bigger bigger answer jump over here<00:12:41.399> Ed<00:12:41.680> what<00:12:41.760> do<00:12:41.800> you<00:12:41.920> think<00:12:42.160> well<00:12:42.240> it's 00:12:42.350 --> 00:12:42.360 align:start position:0% here Ed what do you think well it's 00:12:42.360 --> 00:12:44.269 align:start position:0% here Ed what do you think well it's going<00:12:42.440> to<00:12:42.600> happen<00:12:42.959> um<00:12:43.120> people<00:12:43.279> are<00:12:43.440> going<00:12:43.639> to 00:12:44.269 --> 00:12:44.279 align:start position:0% going to happen um people are going to 00:12:44.279 --> 00:12:45.990 align:start position:0% going to happen um people are going to spend<00:12:44.600> money<00:12:44.839> to<00:12:45.199> to<00:12:45.360> move<00:12:45.560> markets<00:12:45.839> and 00:12:45.990 --> 00:12:46.000 align:start position:0% spend money to to move markets and 00:12:46.000 --> 00:12:47.790 align:start position:0% spend money to to move markets and change<00:12:46.399> information<00:12:46.920> they<00:12:47.079> and<00:12:47.320> and<00:12:47.480> you<00:12:47.600> see 00:12:47.790 --> 00:12:47.800 align:start position:0% change information they and and you see 00:12:47.800 --> 00:12:50.269 align:start position:0% change information they and and you see this<00:12:47.959> a<00:12:48.079> lot<00:12:48.600> right<00:12:48.839> now<00:12:49.639> um<00:12:49.760> particularly<00:12:50.160> in 00:12:50.269 --> 00:12:50.279 align:start position:0% this a lot right now um particularly in 00:12:50.279 --> 00:12:52.110 align:start position:0% this a lot right now um particularly in political<00:12:50.639> markets<00:12:51.160> because<00:12:51.720> political 00:12:52.110 --> 00:12:52.120 align:start position:0% political markets because political 00:12:52.120 --> 00:12:54.069 align:start position:0% political markets because political betting<00:12:52.760> example<00:12:53.160> in<00:12:53.279> the<00:12:53.360> UK<00:12:53.600> where<00:12:53.880> it's<00:12:53.959> all 00:12:54.069 --> 00:12:54.079 align:start position:0% betting example in the UK where it's all 00:12:54.079 --> 00:12:55.670 align:start position:0% betting example in the UK where it's all entirely<00:12:54.399> legal<00:12:54.720> but<00:12:54.839> it's<00:12:54.959> still<00:12:55.519> an 00:12:55.670 --> 00:12:55.680 align:start position:0% entirely legal but it's still an 00:12:55.680 --> 00:12:57.150 align:start position:0% entirely legal but it's still an extremely<00:12:56.040> small<00:12:56.320> Market<00:12:56.600> with<00:12:56.760> not<00:12:56.839> a<00:12:56.920> lot<00:12:57.040> of 00:12:57.150 --> 00:12:57.160 align:start position:0% extremely small Market with not a lot of 00:12:57.160 --> 00:12:59.230 align:start position:0% extremely small Market with not a lot of liquidity<00:12:58.160> um<00:12:58.279> compared<00:12:58.560> to<00:12:58.639> for<00:12:58.720> example 00:12:59.230 --> 00:12:59.240 align:start position:0% liquidity um compared to for example 00:12:59.240 --> 00:13:03.269 align:start position:0% liquidity um compared to for example Sports<00:13:00.240> and<00:13:00.800> so<00:13:01.040> for<00:13:01.440> example<00:13:02.440> um<00:13:02.680> a<00:13:02.800> few<00:13:03.040> years 00:13:03.269 --> 00:13:03.279 align:start position:0% Sports and so for example um a few years 00:13:03.279 --> 00:13:06.230 align:start position:0% Sports and so for example um a few years back<00:13:03.480> there<00:13:03.600> was<00:13:03.880> a<00:13:04.760> um<00:13:05.760> a<00:13:05.839> leadership 00:13:06.230 --> 00:13:06.240 align:start position:0% back there was a um a leadership 00:13:06.240 --> 00:13:09.110 align:start position:0% back there was a um a leadership election<00:13:06.720> between<00:13:07.519> uh<00:13:07.639> Nick<00:13:07.880> CLE<00:13:08.240> and<00:13:08.720> uh 00:13:09.110 --> 00:13:09.120 align:start position:0% election between uh Nick CLE and uh 00:13:09.120 --> 00:13:11.470 align:start position:0% election between uh Nick CLE and uh Chris<00:13:09.320> hun<00:13:10.120> and<00:13:10.399> somebody<00:13:10.839> was<00:13:11.040> putting<00:13:11.279> a<00:13:11.360> lot 00:13:11.470 --> 00:13:11.480 align:start position:0% Chris hun and somebody was putting a lot 00:13:11.480 --> 00:13:12.870 align:start position:0% Chris hun and somebody was putting a lot of<00:13:11.560> money<00:13:11.720> on<00:13:11.800> Chris<00:13:12.040> hun<00:13:12.279> in<00:13:12.360> a<00:13:12.480> way<00:13:12.639> that 00:13:12.870 --> 00:13:12.880 align:start position:0% of money on Chris hun in a way that 00:13:12.880 --> 00:13:14.710 align:start position:0% of money on Chris hun in a way that seemed<00:13:13.199> to<00:13:13.320> be<00:13:13.800> you<00:13:13.920> know<00:13:14.079> aimed<00:13:14.320> at<00:13:14.440> moving 00:13:14.710 --> 00:13:14.720 align:start position:0% seemed to be you know aimed at moving 00:13:14.720 --> 00:13:18.030 align:start position:0% seemed to be you know aimed at moving the<00:13:14.920> price<00:13:15.920> um<00:13:16.399> the<00:13:16.600> solution<00:13:17.040> to<00:13:17.240> it<00:13:17.600> or<00:13:17.839> or 00:13:18.030 --> 00:13:18.040 align:start position:0% the price um the solution to it or or 00:13:18.040 --> 00:13:20.509 align:start position:0% the price um the solution to it or or the<00:13:18.639> um<00:13:19.120> you<00:13:19.240> know<00:13:19.560> the<00:13:19.680> mitigation<00:13:20.199> is<00:13:20.360> that 00:13:20.509 --> 00:13:20.519 align:start position:0% the um you know the mitigation is that 00:13:20.519 --> 00:13:21.949 align:start position:0% the um you know the mitigation is that hopefully<00:13:20.880> if<00:13:21.000> you've<00:13:21.160> got<00:13:21.320> enough<00:13:21.519> liquidity 00:13:21.949 --> 00:13:21.959 align:start position:0% hopefully if you've got enough liquidity 00:13:21.959 --> 00:13:23.189 align:start position:0% hopefully if you've got enough liquidity and<00:13:22.079> enough<00:13:22.320> people<00:13:22.480> who<00:13:22.600> know<00:13:22.760> what's<00:13:22.959> going 00:13:23.189 --> 00:13:23.199 align:start position:0% and enough people who know what's going 00:13:23.199 --> 00:13:25.470 align:start position:0% and enough people who know what's going on<00:13:23.920> they're<00:13:24.079> going<00:13:24.199> to<00:13:24.320> pile<00:13:24.560> a<00:13:24.639> load<00:13:24.800> of<00:13:24.920> money 00:13:25.470 --> 00:13:25.480 align:start position:0% on they're going to pile a load of money 00:13:25.480 --> 00:13:27.230 align:start position:0% on they're going to pile a load of money on<00:13:25.639> the<00:13:25.800> opposite<00:13:26.680> side<00:13:26.920> and<00:13:27.040> they're<00:13:27.160> going 00:13:27.230 --> 00:13:27.240 align:start position:0% on the opposite side and they're going 00:13:27.240 --> 00:13:29.590 align:start position:0% on the opposite side and they're going to<00:13:27.320> make<00:13:27.440> a<00:13:27.560> big<00:13:27.720> profit<00:13:28.079> you<00:13:28.199> know<00:13:28.839> um<00:13:29.120> so<00:13:29.279> so 00:13:29.590 --> 00:13:29.600 align:start position:0% to make a big profit you know um so so 00:13:29.600 --> 00:13:30.990 align:start position:0% to make a big profit you know um so so in<00:13:29.720> in<00:13:29.839> that<00:13:29.959> sense<00:13:30.519> I<00:13:30.560> think<00:13:30.680> from<00:13:30.760> the<00:13:30.880> point 00:13:30.990 --> 00:13:31.000 align:start position:0% in in that sense I think from the point 00:13:31.000 --> 00:13:32.670 align:start position:0% in in that sense I think from the point of<00:13:31.079> view<00:13:31.199> of<00:13:31.320> people<00:13:31.480> who<00:13:31.600> actually<00:13:32.199> um<00:13:32.440> run 00:13:32.670 --> 00:13:32.680 align:start position:0% of view of people who actually um run 00:13:32.680 --> 00:13:35.230 align:start position:0% of view of people who actually um run and<00:13:32.839> promote<00:13:33.240> these<00:13:34.000> um<00:13:34.160> prediction<00:13:34.560> markets 00:13:35.230 --> 00:13:35.240 align:start position:0% and promote these um prediction markets 00:13:35.240 --> 00:13:36.670 align:start position:0% and promote these um prediction markets it's<00:13:35.399> something<00:13:35.680> they'd<00:13:35.880> like<00:13:36.000> to<00:13:36.120> see<00:13:36.360> happen 00:13:36.670 --> 00:13:36.680 align:start position:0% it's something they'd like to see happen 00:13:36.680 --> 00:13:38.310 align:start position:0% it's something they'd like to see happen because<00:13:36.839> all<00:13:37.000> of<00:13:37.120> their<00:13:37.279> honest<00:13:37.560> users<00:13:38.160> are 00:13:38.310 --> 00:13:38.320 align:start position:0% because all of their honest users are 00:13:38.320 --> 00:13:39.470 align:start position:0% because all of their honest users are actually<00:13:38.519> going<00:13:38.639> to<00:13:38.720> make<00:13:38.880> money<00:13:39.120> when<00:13:39.279> people 00:13:39.470 --> 00:13:39.480 align:start position:0% actually going to make money when people 00:13:39.480 --> 00:13:42.150 align:start position:0% actually going to make money when people try<00:13:39.720> to<00:13:39.920> to<00:13:40.040> manipulate<00:13:40.440> the<00:13:40.720> markets<00:13:41.720> yeah<00:13:41.920> me 00:13:42.150 --> 00:13:42.160 align:start position:0% try to to manipulate the markets yeah me 00:13:42.160 --> 00:13:45.310 align:start position:0% try to to manipulate the markets yeah me what<00:13:42.240> I<00:13:42.320> would<00:13:42.480> say<00:13:42.639> is<00:13:42.880> just<00:13:43.120> that<00:13:44.240> um<00:13:45.240> you 00:13:45.310 --> 00:13:45.320 align:start position:0% what I would say is just that um you 00:13:45.320 --> 00:13:47.750 align:start position:0% what I would say is just that um you know<00:13:45.639> what<00:13:45.760> prediction<00:13:46.160> markets<00:13:46.760> do<00:13:47.440> assuming 00:13:47.750 --> 00:13:47.760 align:start position:0% know what prediction markets do assuming 00:13:47.760 --> 00:13:49.269 align:start position:0% know what prediction markets do assuming that<00:13:47.920> they're<00:13:48.199> they're<00:13:48.399> liquid<00:13:48.800> and<00:13:49.040> well 00:13:49.269 --> 00:13:49.279 align:start position:0% that they're they're liquid and well 00:13:49.279 --> 00:13:51.310 align:start position:0% that they're they're liquid and well functioning<00:13:49.920> assumptions<00:13:50.279> you<00:13:50.360> said<00:13:50.519> earlier 00:13:51.310 --> 00:13:51.320 align:start position:0% functioning assumptions you said earlier 00:13:51.320 --> 00:13:55.389 align:start position:0% functioning assumptions you said earlier uh<00:13:52.079> is<00:13:52.880> you<00:13:53.000> know<00:13:53.279> they<00:13:53.519> they<00:13:53.800> make<00:13:54.000> it<00:13:54.240> so<00:13:55.240> that 00:13:55.389 --> 00:13:55.399 align:start position:0% uh is you know they they make it so that 00:13:55.399 --> 00:13:56.670 align:start position:0% uh is you know they they make it so that if<00:13:55.480> you're<00:13:55.639> manipulating<00:13:56.160> the<00:13:56.279> market<00:13:56.519> you'll 00:13:56.670 --> 00:13:56.680 align:start position:0% if you're manipulating the market you'll 00:13:56.680 --> 00:14:00.230 align:start position:0% if you're manipulating the market you'll lose<00:13:56.920> money<00:13:57.600> you<00:13:57.720> should<00:13:57.920> lose<00:13:58.160> money<00:13:58.920> um 00:14:00.230 --> 00:14:00.240 align:start position:0% lose money you should lose money um 00:14:00.240 --> 00:14:02.310 align:start position:0% lose money you should lose money um and<00:14:01.160> you<00:14:01.279> know<00:14:01.519> that<00:14:01.839> now<00:14:02.000> that<00:14:02.079> doesn't 00:14:02.310 --> 00:14:02.320 align:start position:0% and you know that now that doesn't 00:14:02.320 --> 00:14:04.509 align:start position:0% and you know that now that doesn't necessarily<00:14:02.800> help<00:14:03.000> you<00:14:03.320> in<00:14:04.079> you<00:14:04.199> know<00:14:04.360> this 00:14:04.509 --> 00:14:04.519 align:start position:0% necessarily help you in you know this 00:14:04.519 --> 00:14:06.430 align:start position:0% necessarily help you in you know this hypothetical<00:14:05.320> situation<00:14:05.759> where<00:14:05.880> you<00:14:06.040> have 00:14:06.430 --> 00:14:06.440 align:start position:0% hypothetical situation where you have 00:14:06.440 --> 00:14:08.350 align:start position:0% hypothetical situation where you have someone<00:14:06.839> with<00:14:07.440> an<00:14:07.600> unlimited<00:14:08.079> amount<00:14:08.240> of 00:14:08.350 --> 00:14:08.360 align:start position:0% someone with an unlimited amount of 00:14:08.360 --> 00:14:10.389 align:start position:0% someone with an unlimited amount of money<00:14:08.720> and<00:14:09.199> nothing<00:14:09.399> to<00:14:09.560> lose<00:14:09.959> and<00:14:10.199> they're 00:14:10.389 --> 00:14:10.399 align:start position:0% money and nothing to lose and they're 00:14:10.399 --> 00:14:11.590 align:start position:0% money and nothing to lose and they're just<00:14:10.560> you<00:14:10.639> know<00:14:10.800> kind<00:14:10.920> of<00:14:11.000> out<00:14:11.120> to<00:14:11.240> burn<00:14:11.480> the 00:14:11.590 --> 00:14:11.600 align:start position:0% just you know kind of out to burn the 00:14:11.600 --> 00:14:15.509 align:start position:0% just you know kind of out to burn the world<00:14:12.480> um<00:14:13.240> but<00:14:13.560> I<00:14:13.759> I<00:14:13.839> think<00:14:14.079> that's<00:14:14.800> you<00:14:14.920> know 00:14:15.509 --> 00:14:15.519 align:start position:0% world um but I I think that's you know 00:14:15.519 --> 00:14:17.550 align:start position:0% world um but I I think that's you know that<00:14:15.920> that's<00:14:16.920> a<00:14:17.040> quote<00:14:17.240> unquote 00:14:17.550 --> 00:14:17.560 align:start position:0% that that's a quote unquote 00:14:17.560 --> 00:14:20.870 align:start position:0% that that's a quote unquote vulnerability<00:14:18.440> that<00:14:19.440> you<00:14:19.560> know<00:14:19.759> most<00:14:20.040> systems 00:14:20.870 --> 00:14:20.880 align:start position:0% vulnerability that you know most systems 00:14:20.880 --> 00:14:22.990 align:start position:0% vulnerability that you know most systems have<00:14:21.120> that<00:14:21.680> okay<00:14:21.920> so<00:14:22.160> let<00:14:22.279> me<00:14:22.480> dig<00:14:22.720> a<00:14:22.800> little 00:14:22.990 --> 00:14:23.000 align:start position:0% have that okay so let me dig a little 00:14:23.000 --> 00:14:24.829 align:start position:0% have that okay so let me dig a little bit<00:14:23.240> deeper<00:14:23.560> into<00:14:23.839> that<00:14:24.040> so<00:14:24.279> imagine<00:14:24.639> a 00:14:24.829 --> 00:14:24.839 align:start position:0% bit deeper into that so imagine a 00:14:24.839 --> 00:14:26.389 align:start position:0% bit deeper into that so imagine a situation<00:14:25.399> where<00:14:25.560> the<00:14:25.680> prediction<00:14:26.040> is<00:14:26.199> about 00:14:26.389 --> 00:14:26.399 align:start position:0% situation where the prediction is about 00:14:26.399 --> 00:14:29.069 align:start position:0% situation where the prediction is about an<00:14:26.560> act<00:14:26.759> of<00:14:27.279> sabotage<00:14:28.279> where<00:14:28.519> an<00:14:28.680> individ 00:14:29.069 --> 00:14:29.079 align:start position:0% an act of sabotage where an individ 00:14:29.079 --> 00:14:31.949 align:start position:0% an act of sabotage where an individ idual<00:14:29.600> could<00:14:29.880> actually<00:14:30.639> uh<00:14:30.880> by<00:14:31.279> themselves<00:14:31.720> or 00:14:31.949 --> 00:14:31.959 align:start position:0% idual could actually uh by themselves or 00:14:31.959 --> 00:14:34.430 align:start position:0% idual could actually uh by themselves or with<00:14:32.199> help<00:14:32.959> actually<00:14:33.399> carry<00:14:33.680> out<00:14:33.959> the<00:14:34.079> act<00:14:34.279> of 00:14:34.430 --> 00:14:34.440 align:start position:0% with help actually carry out the act of 00:14:34.440 --> 00:14:37.269 align:start position:0% with help actually carry out the act of sabotage<00:14:35.199> and<00:14:35.759> cause<00:14:36.079> the<00:14:36.199> event<00:14:36.639> to<00:14:36.880> actually 00:14:37.269 --> 00:14:37.279 align:start position:0% sabotage and cause the event to actually 00:14:37.279 --> 00:14:39.749 align:start position:0% sabotage and cause the event to actually take<00:14:37.560> place<00:14:37.880> so<00:14:38.680> uh<00:14:38.920> what<00:14:39.079> what<00:14:39.199> do<00:14:39.320> you<00:14:39.519> guys 00:14:39.749 --> 00:14:39.759 align:start position:0% take place so uh what what do you guys 00:14:39.759 --> 00:14:42.310 align:start position:0% take place so uh what what do you guys think<00:14:40.399> a<00:14:40.759> responsible<00:14:41.440> prediction<00:14:41.920> Market 00:14:42.310 --> 00:14:42.320 align:start position:0% think a responsible prediction Market 00:14:42.320 --> 00:14:44.310 align:start position:0% think a responsible prediction Market should<00:14:42.560> do<00:14:42.920> to<00:14:43.079> deal<00:14:43.279> with<00:14:43.440> that<00:14:43.600> kind<00:14:43.759> of<00:14:43.920> case 00:14:44.310 --> 00:14:44.320 align:start position:0% should do to deal with that kind of case 00:14:44.320 --> 00:14:47.389 align:start position:0% should do to deal with that kind of case you<00:14:44.399> could<00:14:44.560> start<00:14:44.720> with<00:14:44.839> Edmund<00:14:45.320> again<00:14:46.240> yes<00:14:46.639> so 00:14:47.389 --> 00:14:47.399 align:start position:0% you could start with Edmund again yes so 00:14:47.399 --> 00:14:49.310 align:start position:0% you could start with Edmund again yes so um<00:14:47.720> I<00:14:47.920> I<00:14:47.959> mean<00:14:48.079> as<00:14:48.160> a<00:14:48.279> data<00:14:48.560> fee<00:14:48.800> provider<00:14:49.160> we've 00:14:49.310 --> 00:14:49.320 align:start position:0% um I I mean as a data fee provider we've 00:14:49.320 --> 00:14:51.069 align:start position:0% um I I mean as a data fee provider we've always<00:14:49.600> kind<00:14:49.720> of<00:14:49.880> agonized<00:14:50.399> about<00:14:50.680> whether<00:14:50.959> we 00:14:51.069 --> 00:14:51.079 align:start position:0% always kind of agonized about whether we 00:14:51.079 --> 00:14:54.829 align:start position:0% always kind of agonized about whether we should<00:14:51.320> be<00:14:52.000> providing<00:14:53.000> um<00:14:53.759> signed<00:14:54.240> data<00:14:54.600> about 00:14:54.829 --> 00:14:54.839 align:start position:0% should be providing um signed data about 00:14:54.839 --> 00:14:57.590 align:start position:0% should be providing um signed data about people's<00:14:55.399> deaths<00:14:56.399> um<00:14:56.839> which<00:14:57.040> obviously<00:14:57.399> has<00:14:57.519> a 00:14:57.590 --> 00:14:57.600 align:start position:0% people's deaths um which obviously has a 00:14:57.600 --> 00:14:58.749 align:start position:0% people's deaths um which obviously has a lot<00:14:57.720> of<00:14:57.800> potential<00:14:58.120> for<00:14:58.279> abuse<00:14:58.600> you<00:14:58.680> know 00:14:58.749 --> 00:14:58.759 align:start position:0% lot of potential for abuse you know 00:14:58.759 --> 00:14:59.990 align:start position:0% lot of potential for abuse you know people<00:14:59.160> bring<00:14:59.279> out<00:14:59.399> the<00:14:59.480> assassination 00:14:59.990 --> 00:15:00.000 align:start position:0% people bring out the assassination 00:15:00.000 --> 00:15:01.110 align:start position:0% people bring out the assassination contract<00:15:00.399> when<00:15:00.519> you<00:15:00.639> when<00:15:00.759> you<00:15:00.839> talk<00:15:00.959> about 00:15:01.110 --> 00:15:01.120 align:start position:0% contract when you when you talk about 00:15:01.120 --> 00:15:02.990 align:start position:0% contract when you when you talk about prediction<00:15:01.480> markets<00:15:02.240> at<00:15:02.360> the<00:15:02.480> same<00:15:02.720> time<00:15:02.880> it 00:15:02.990 --> 00:15:03.000 align:start position:0% prediction markets at the same time it 00:15:03.000 --> 00:15:04.790 align:start position:0% prediction markets at the same time it has<00:15:03.160> all<00:15:03.360> kinds<00:15:03.560> of<00:15:03.920> really<00:15:04.320> useful 00:15:04.790 --> 00:15:04.800 align:start position:0% has all kinds of really useful 00:15:04.800 --> 00:15:07.670 align:start position:0% has all kinds of really useful interesting<00:15:05.680> use<00:15:06.120> cases<00:15:06.600> like<00:15:07.320> um<00:15:07.440> you<00:15:07.560> know 00:15:07.670 --> 00:15:07.680 align:start position:0% interesting use cases like um you know 00:15:07.680 --> 00:15:09.030 align:start position:0% interesting use cases like um you know making<00:15:07.880> wheels<00:15:08.199> execute<00:15:08.600> quickly<00:15:08.920> for 00:15:09.030 --> 00:15:09.040 align:start position:0% making wheels execute quickly for 00:15:09.040 --> 00:15:11.110 align:start position:0% making wheels execute quickly for example<00:15:09.680> or<00:15:10.000> you<00:15:10.079> know<00:15:10.399> uh<00:15:10.519> governance 00:15:11.110 --> 00:15:11.120 align:start position:0% example or you know uh governance 00:15:11.120 --> 00:15:16.069 align:start position:0% example or you know uh governance governance<00:15:11.759> procedures<00:15:12.759> um<00:15:13.639> so<00:15:14.639> we<00:15:15.000> we<00:15:15.759> still 00:15:16.069 --> 00:15:16.079 align:start position:0% governance procedures um so we we still 00:15:16.079 --> 00:15:17.389 align:start position:0% governance procedures um so we we still haven't<00:15:16.360> quite<00:15:16.560> made<00:15:16.720> up<00:15:16.839> our<00:15:16.959> minds<00:15:17.199> what<00:15:17.279> to 00:15:17.389 --> 00:15:17.399 align:start position:0% haven't quite made up our minds what to 00:15:17.399 --> 00:15:19.949 align:start position:0% haven't quite made up our minds what to do<00:15:17.519> ultimately<00:15:18.000> about<00:15:18.320> that<00:15:19.160> um<00:15:19.360> but<00:15:19.600> I<00:15:19.800> I 00:15:19.949 --> 00:15:19.959 align:start position:0% do ultimately about that um but I I 00:15:19.959 --> 00:15:22.509 align:start position:0% do ultimately about that um but I I think<00:15:20.519> you<00:15:20.639> know<00:15:21.040> it's<00:15:21.279> going<00:15:21.360> to<00:15:21.560> happen 00:15:22.509 --> 00:15:22.519 align:start position:0% think you know it's going to happen 00:15:22.519 --> 00:15:25.069 align:start position:0% think you know it's going to happen somebody's<00:15:22.920> going<00:15:23.040> to<00:15:23.160> do<00:15:23.279> it<00:15:23.560> Mar<00:15:24.360> yeah 00:15:25.069 --> 00:15:25.079 align:start position:0% somebody's going to do it Mar yeah 00:15:25.079 --> 00:15:28.470 align:start position:0% somebody's going to do it Mar yeah obviously<00:15:25.440> also<00:15:26.360> thought<00:15:26.600> about<00:15:26.880> is<00:15:27.279> um<00:15:27.680> sign 00:15:28.470 --> 00:15:28.480 align:start position:0% obviously also thought about is um sign 00:15:28.480 --> 00:15:32.269 align:start position:0% obviously also thought about is um sign messages<00:15:29.199> of<00:15:29.759> U<00:15:30.759> people's<00:15:31.240> deaths<00:15:31.880> and<00:15:32.120> B 00:15:32.269 --> 00:15:32.279 align:start position:0% messages of U people's deaths and B 00:15:32.279 --> 00:15:35.230 align:start position:0% messages of U people's deaths and B basically<00:15:33.079> in<00:15:33.160> the<00:15:33.279> world<00:15:33.480> of<00:15:33.600> ethereum<00:15:34.360> every 00:15:35.230 --> 00:15:35.240 align:start position:0% basically in the world of ethereum every 00:15:35.240 --> 00:15:37.670 align:start position:0% basically in the world of ethereum every time<00:15:35.680> you<00:15:35.839> are<00:15:36.040> publishing<00:15:36.480> a<00:15:36.639> signed<00:15:37.000> message 00:15:37.670 --> 00:15:37.680 align:start position:0% time you are publishing a signed message 00:15:37.680 --> 00:15:39.509 align:start position:0% time you are publishing a signed message you're<00:15:37.920> pulling<00:15:38.199> a<00:15:38.399> tri<00:15:38.720> a<00:15:38.839> trigger<00:15:39.240> of<00:15:39.399> a 00:15:39.509 --> 00:15:39.519 align:start position:0% you're pulling a tri a trigger of a 00:15:39.519 --> 00:15:41.590 align:start position:0% you're pulling a tri a trigger of a machine<00:15:40.360> where<00:15:40.519> you<00:15:40.639> don't<00:15:40.839> know<00:15:41.199> what's 00:15:41.590 --> 00:15:41.600 align:start position:0% machine where you don't know what's 00:15:41.600 --> 00:15:43.749 align:start position:0% machine where you don't know what's what's<00:15:41.839> happening<00:15:42.240> in<00:15:42.399> this<00:15:42.600> machine<00:15:43.279> so<00:15:43.519> you 00:15:43.749 --> 00:15:43.759 align:start position:0% what's happening in this machine so you 00:15:43.759 --> 00:15:45.590 align:start position:0% what's happening in this machine so you you<00:15:43.920> could<00:15:44.120> trigger<00:15:44.600> anything<00:15:45.279> with<00:15:45.440> this 00:15:45.590 --> 00:15:45.600 align:start position:0% you could trigger anything with this 00:15:45.600 --> 00:15:48.350 align:start position:0% you could trigger anything with this signed<00:15:45.959> message<00:15:46.959> and<00:15:47.440> um<00:15:47.680> especially<00:15:48.079> when<00:15:48.199> it 00:15:48.350 --> 00:15:48.360 align:start position:0% signed message and um especially when it 00:15:48.360 --> 00:15:53.790 align:start position:0% signed message and um especially when it comes<00:15:48.839> to<00:15:49.839> um<00:15:50.839> the<00:15:51.000> death<00:15:51.240> of<00:15:51.480> people<00:15:52.480> um<00:15:53.399> it<00:15:53.600> it 00:15:53.790 --> 00:15:53.800 align:start position:0% comes to um the death of people um it it 00:15:53.800 --> 00:15:57.990 align:start position:0% comes to um the death of people um it it might<00:15:54.079> be<00:15:54.480> or<00:15:55.199> it<00:15:55.399> it<00:15:55.639> might<00:15:56.519> uh<00:15:56.639> be<00:15:56.800> a<00:15:57.000> solution 00:15:57.990 --> 00:15:58.000 align:start position:0% might be or it it might uh be a solution 00:15:58.000 --> 00:16:01.949 align:start position:0% might be or it it might uh be a solution to<00:15:58.240> say<00:15:59.399> um<00:15:59.720> you<00:16:00.199> as<00:16:00.319> an<00:16:00.680> individual<00:16:01.680> would 00:16:01.949 --> 00:16:01.959 align:start position:0% to say um you as an individual would 00:16:01.959 --> 00:16:05.949 align:start position:0% to say um you as an individual would have<00:16:02.160> the<00:16:02.440> right<00:16:03.440> to<00:16:04.399> make<00:16:04.680> an<00:16:04.839> oracle 00:16:05.949 --> 00:16:05.959 align:start position:0% have the right to make an oracle 00:16:05.959 --> 00:16:09.230 align:start position:0% have the right to make an oracle wrongly<00:16:06.959> report<00:16:07.440> about<00:16:07.800> your<00:16:08.399> your<00:16:08.639> death<00:16:09.079> for 00:16:09.230 --> 00:16:09.240 align:start position:0% wrongly report about your your death for 00:16:09.240 --> 00:16:12.629 align:start position:0% wrongly report about your your death for example<00:16:10.000> to<00:16:10.360> kind<00:16:10.639> kind<00:16:10.759> of<00:16:11.160> unload<00:16:11.600> the<00:16:11.800> gun 00:16:12.629 --> 00:16:12.639 align:start position:0% example to kind kind of unload the gun 00:16:12.639 --> 00:16:17.949 align:start position:0% example to kind kind of unload the gun in<00:16:12.880> in<00:16:13.279> this<00:16:13.600> uh<00:16:13.959> so<00:16:14.480> Jack<00:16:15.279> um<00:16:15.519> I<00:16:15.800> gu<00:16:16.800> my<00:16:17.079> my<00:16:17.759> my 00:16:17.949 --> 00:16:17.959 align:start position:0% in in this uh so Jack um I gu my my my 00:16:17.959 --> 00:16:20.470 align:start position:0% in in this uh so Jack um I gu my my my my<00:16:18.160> my<00:16:18.319> thought<00:16:18.480> about<00:16:18.759> that<00:16:18.959> is<00:16:19.319> that<00:16:19.920> um<00:16:20.319> you 00:16:20.470 --> 00:16:20.480 align:start position:0% my my thought about that is that um you 00:16:20.480 --> 00:16:22.309 align:start position:0% my my thought about that is that um you know<00:16:20.839> why<00:16:21.000> not<00:16:21.160> take<00:16:21.319> advantage<00:16:21.720> of<00:16:21.959> the<00:16:22.160> the 00:16:22.309 --> 00:16:22.319 align:start position:0% know why not take advantage of the the 00:16:22.319 --> 00:16:24.590 align:start position:0% know why not take advantage of the the same<00:16:23.319> mechanism<00:16:23.959> that<00:16:24.120> you<00:16:24.199> know<00:16:24.319> sort<00:16:24.480> of 00:16:24.590 --> 00:16:24.600 align:start position:0% same mechanism that you know sort of 00:16:24.600 --> 00:16:26.230 align:start position:0% same mechanism that you know sort of powers<00:16:24.880> prediction<00:16:25.199> markets<00:16:25.519> in<00:16:25.639> general<00:16:26.120> the 00:16:26.230 --> 00:16:26.240 align:start position:0% powers prediction markets in general the 00:16:26.240 --> 00:16:29.550 align:start position:0% powers prediction markets in general the idea<00:16:26.440> of<00:16:26.560> the<00:16:26.759> wisdom<00:16:27.759> uh<00:16:28.079> of<00:16:28.240> the<00:16:28.360> crowd<00:16:29.120> and 00:16:29.550 --> 00:16:29.560 align:start position:0% idea of the wisdom uh of the crowd and 00:16:29.560 --> 00:16:31.590 align:start position:0% idea of the wisdom uh of the crowd and you<00:16:29.680> know<00:16:29.800> say<00:16:30.040> that<00:16:30.680> you<00:16:30.800> know<00:16:31.079> well<00:16:31.519> what 00:16:31.590 --> 00:16:31.600 align:start position:0% you know say that you know well what 00:16:31.600 --> 00:16:33.150 align:start position:0% you know say that you know well what does<00:16:31.720> it<00:16:31.839> mean<00:16:32.000> for<00:16:32.160> a<00:16:32.279> market<00:16:32.560> to<00:16:32.639> be<00:16:32.759> saying 00:16:33.150 --> 00:16:33.160 align:start position:0% does it mean for a market to be saying 00:16:33.160 --> 00:16:36.790 align:start position:0% does it mean for a market to be saying like<00:16:33.720> unethical<00:16:34.720> um<00:16:35.560> and<00:16:36.000> well<00:16:36.120> it's<00:16:36.279> really 00:16:36.790 --> 00:16:36.800 align:start position:0% like unethical um and well it's really 00:16:36.800 --> 00:16:37.829 align:start position:0% like unethical um and well it's really you<00:16:36.920> know<00:16:37.000> whether<00:16:37.160> or<00:16:37.240> not<00:16:37.399> people<00:16:37.639> think 00:16:37.829 --> 00:16:37.839 align:start position:0% you know whether or not people think 00:16:37.839 --> 00:16:41.550 align:start position:0% you know whether or not people think it's<00:16:38.319> unethical<00:16:39.279> and<00:16:40.199> uh<00:16:40.399> so<00:16:41.079> you<00:16:41.240> could<00:16:41.399> sort 00:16:41.550 --> 00:16:41.560 align:start position:0% it's unethical and uh so you could sort 00:16:41.560 --> 00:16:43.150 align:start position:0% it's unethical and uh so you could sort of<00:16:41.639> Leverage<00:16:42.040> the<00:16:42.160> moral<00:16:42.480> compass<00:16:42.800> of<00:16:42.959> your 00:16:43.150 --> 00:16:43.160 align:start position:0% of Leverage the moral compass of your 00:16:43.160 --> 00:16:45.509 align:start position:0% of Leverage the moral compass of your users<00:16:44.160> and<00:16:44.279> say<00:16:44.519> like<00:16:44.639> well<00:16:44.800> they<00:16:44.920> can<00:16:45.040> vote<00:16:45.319> on 00:16:45.509 --> 00:16:45.519 align:start position:0% users and say like well they can vote on 00:16:45.519 --> 00:16:48.230 align:start position:0% users and say like well they can vote on whether<00:16:45.680> or<00:16:45.800> not<00:16:46.040> it's<00:16:46.399> this<00:16:46.519> is<00:16:46.680> an<00:16:47.240> ethical 00:16:48.230 --> 00:16:48.240 align:start position:0% whether or not it's this is an ethical 00:16:48.240 --> 00:16:49.949 align:start position:0% whether or not it's this is an ethical uh<00:16:48.680> whether<00:16:48.839> or<00:16:48.920> not<00:16:49.040> this<00:16:49.160> is<00:16:49.240> an<00:16:49.360> ethical 00:16:49.949 --> 00:16:49.959 align:start position:0% uh whether or not this is an ethical 00:16:49.959 --> 00:16:54.590 align:start position:0% uh whether or not this is an ethical question<00:16:51.160> um<00:16:52.160> link<00:16:52.600> yeah<00:16:52.759> I<00:16:52.800> mean<00:16:53.160> I<00:16:53.440> think<00:16:54.319> as 00:16:54.590 --> 00:16:54.600 align:start position:0% question um link yeah I mean I think as 00:16:54.600 --> 00:16:55.990 align:start position:0% question um link yeah I mean I think as you<00:16:54.720> know<00:16:54.880> as 00:16:55.990 --> 00:16:56.000 align:start position:0% you know as 00:16:56.000 --> 00:16:58.670 align:start position:0% you know as I<00:16:57.000> understands<00:16:57.399> you<00:16:57.480> know<00:16:57.720> the<00:16:58.160> the<00:16:58.240> way<00:16:58.360> augur 00:16:58.670 --> 00:16:58.680 align:start position:0% I understands you know the the way augur 00:16:58.680 --> 00:17:00.509 align:start position:0% I understands you know the the way augur does<00:16:58.959> that<00:16:59.040> is<00:16:59.240> basically<00:16:59.639> that<00:16:59.839> when<00:17:00.000> you 00:17:00.509 --> 00:17:00.519 align:start position:0% does that is basically that when you 00:17:00.519 --> 00:17:01.829 align:start position:0% does that is basically that when you when<00:17:00.720> people<00:17:00.959> actually<00:17:01.199> vote<00:17:01.440> on<00:17:01.600> whether<00:17:01.720> or 00:17:01.829 --> 00:17:01.839 align:start position:0% when people actually vote on whether or 00:17:01.839 --> 00:17:03.509 align:start position:0% when people actually vote on whether or not<00:17:01.959> an<00:17:02.079> event<00:17:02.360> occurred<00:17:02.720> they<00:17:02.839> can<00:17:03.000> vote<00:17:03.319> Yes 00:17:03.509 --> 00:17:03.519 align:start position:0% not an event occurred they can vote Yes 00:17:03.519 --> 00:17:05.390 align:start position:0% not an event occurred they can vote Yes they<00:17:03.639> can<00:17:03.800> vote<00:17:04.079> no<00:17:04.559> or<00:17:04.799> they<00:17:04.880> can<00:17:05.079> vote<00:17:05.280> you 00:17:05.390 --> 00:17:05.400 align:start position:0% they can vote no or they can vote you 00:17:05.400 --> 00:17:08.110 align:start position:0% they can vote no or they can vote you know<00:17:05.600> ambiguous<00:17:06.079> or<00:17:06.280> unethical<00:17:07.240> and<00:17:07.919> the 00:17:08.110 --> 00:17:08.120 align:start position:0% know ambiguous or unethical and the 00:17:08.120 --> 00:17:10.590 align:start position:0% know ambiguous or unethical and the theory<00:17:08.439> is<00:17:08.720> that<00:17:08.839> you<00:17:08.959> know<00:17:09.199> if<00:17:09.839> some<00:17:10.160> question 00:17:10.590 --> 00:17:10.600 align:start position:0% theory is that you know if some question 00:17:10.600 --> 00:17:12.750 align:start position:0% theory is that you know if some question actually<00:17:10.839> is<00:17:11.000> an<00:17:11.199> ethical<00:17:11.559> in<00:17:11.720> some<00:17:11.919> way<00:17:12.439> or<00:17:12.640> if 00:17:12.750 --> 00:17:12.760 align:start position:0% actually is an ethical in some way or if 00:17:12.760 --> 00:17:14.470 align:start position:0% actually is an ethical in some way or if it's<00:17:13.000> just<00:17:13.120> sort<00:17:13.280> of<00:17:13.439> too<00:17:13.640> plain<00:17:13.919> ambiguous 00:17:14.470 --> 00:17:14.480 align:start position:0% it's just sort of too plain ambiguous 00:17:14.480 --> 00:17:15.949 align:start position:0% it's just sort of too plain ambiguous what<00:17:14.880> like<00:17:15.000> if<00:17:15.079> you<00:17:15.160> just<00:17:15.280> throw<00:17:15.480> gibberish 00:17:15.949 --> 00:17:15.959 align:start position:0% what like if you just throw gibberish 00:17:15.959 --> 00:17:17.189 align:start position:0% what like if you just throw gibberish into<00:17:16.160> the<00:17:16.280> question<00:17:16.559> field<00:17:16.880> then<00:17:17.000> they'll 00:17:17.189 --> 00:17:17.199 align:start position:0% into the question field then they'll 00:17:17.199 --> 00:17:19.630 align:start position:0% into the question field then they'll answer<00:17:17.600> that<00:17:17.959> and<00:17:18.959> even<00:17:19.160> the<00:17:19.280> person<00:17:19.520> who 00:17:19.630 --> 00:17:19.640 align:start position:0% answer that and even the person who 00:17:19.640 --> 00:17:20.870 align:start position:0% answer that and even the person who created<00:17:20.000> the<00:17:20.120> question<00:17:20.400> might<00:17:20.559> even<00:17:20.720> be 00:17:20.870 --> 00:17:20.880 align:start position:0% created the question might even be 00:17:20.880 --> 00:17:24.549 align:start position:0% created the question might even be penalized<00:17:21.400> some<00:17:21.600> amount<00:17:22.400> so<00:17:23.280> it's<00:17:24.240> like<00:17:24.439> the 00:17:24.549 --> 00:17:24.559 align:start position:0% penalized some amount so it's like the 00:17:24.559 --> 00:17:26.789 align:start position:0% penalized some amount so it's like the thing<00:17:24.799> is<00:17:24.959> that<00:17:25.199> all<00:17:25.360> of<00:17:25.640> you<00:17:25.760> know<00:17:26.319> these 00:17:26.789 --> 00:17:26.799 align:start position:0% thing is that all of you know these 00:17:26.799 --> 00:17:28.549 align:start position:0% thing is that all of you know these blockchain<00:17:27.319> based<00:17:27.600> systems<00:17:28.079> they<00:17:28.199> all<00:17:28.439> kind 00:17:28.549 --> 00:17:28.559 align:start position:0% blockchain based systems they all kind 00:17:28.559 --> 00:17:30.830 align:start position:0% blockchain based systems they all kind of<00:17:29.039> exist<00:17:29.400> in<00:17:29.600> this<00:17:29.720> sort<00:17:29.919> of<00:17:30.120> cryptosphere 00:17:30.830 --> 00:17:30.840 align:start position:0% of exist in this sort of cryptosphere 00:17:30.840 --> 00:17:33.270 align:start position:0% of exist in this sort of cryptosphere and<00:17:31.840> there's<00:17:32.160> always<00:17:32.440> going<00:17:32.600> to<00:17:32.720> be<00:17:32.919> some<00:17:33.160> kind 00:17:33.270 --> 00:17:33.280 align:start position:0% and there's always going to be some kind 00:17:33.280 --> 00:17:35.150 align:start position:0% and there's always going to be some kind of<00:17:33.440> link<00:17:33.720> between<00:17:34.039> that<00:17:34.120> in<00:17:34.240> the<00:17:34.360> real<00:17:34.600> world 00:17:35.150 --> 00:17:35.160 align:start position:0% of link between that in the real world 00:17:35.160 --> 00:17:38.669 align:start position:0% of link between that in the real world and<00:17:35.880> it's<00:17:36.880> kind<00:17:37.000> of<00:17:37.160> clear<00:17:37.440> that<00:17:37.600> that<00:17:37.799> link<00:17:38.160> is 00:17:38.669 --> 00:17:38.679 align:start position:0% and it's kind of clear that that link is 00:17:38.679 --> 00:17:40.310 align:start position:0% and it's kind of clear that that link is inevitably<00:17:39.280> going<00:17:39.440> to<00:17:39.600> be<00:17:39.720> a<00:17:39.840> collusion 00:17:40.310 --> 00:17:40.320 align:start position:0% inevitably going to be a collusion 00:17:40.320 --> 00:17:43.070 align:start position:0% inevitably going to be a collusion Vector<00:17:40.679> I<00:17:40.760> guess<00:17:40.960> both<00:17:41.120> for<00:17:41.320> good<00:17:41.520> and<00:17:41.640> for 00:17:43.070 --> 00:17:43.080 align:start position:0% Vector I guess both for good and for 00:17:43.080 --> 00:17:45.789 align:start position:0% Vector I guess both for good and for evil<00:17:44.080> okay<00:17:44.440> a<00:17:44.919> going<00:17:45.120> in<00:17:45.240> a<00:17:45.440> slightly 00:17:45.789 --> 00:17:45.799 align:start position:0% evil okay a going in a slightly 00:17:45.799 --> 00:17:48.549 align:start position:0% evil okay a going in a slightly different<00:17:46.120> direction<00:17:46.520> now<00:17:46.679> so<00:17:47.360> uh<00:17:47.600> imagine 00:17:48.549 --> 00:17:48.559 align:start position:0% different direction now so uh imagine 00:17:48.559 --> 00:17:51.190 align:start position:0% different direction now so uh imagine that<00:17:48.960> you<00:17:49.240> had<00:17:49.799> the<00:17:50.000> ability<00:17:50.480> to<00:17:50.720> make<00:17:51.000> the 00:17:51.190 --> 00:17:51.200 align:start position:0% that you had the ability to make the 00:17:51.200 --> 00:17:53.510 align:start position:0% that you had the ability to make the life<00:17:51.440> of<00:17:51.600> the<00:17:51.799> predictor<00:17:52.559> as<00:17:52.880> easy<00:17:53.200> as 00:17:53.510 --> 00:17:53.520 align:start position:0% life of the predictor as easy as 00:17:53.520 --> 00:17:56.549 align:start position:0% life of the predictor as easy as possible<00:17:54.000> so<00:17:54.480> imagine<00:17:54.880> the<00:17:55.120> equivalent<00:17:56.120> of<00:17:56.360> an 00:17:56.549 --> 00:17:56.559 align:start position:0% possible so imagine the equivalent of an 00:17:56.559 --> 00:17:59.590 align:start position:0% possible so imagine the equivalent of an IDE<00:17:57.440> for<00:17:57.720> predictors<00:17:58.679> where<00:17:58.840> where<00:17:59.000> you<00:17:59.240> enter 00:17:59.590 --> 00:17:59.600 align:start position:0% IDE for predictors where where you enter 00:17:59.600 --> 00:18:01.750 align:start position:0% IDE for predictors where where you enter the<00:17:59.760> market<00:18:00.200> and<00:18:00.360> you<00:18:00.559> have<00:18:00.919> a<00:18:01.120> series<00:18:01.520> of 00:18:01.750 --> 00:18:01.760 align:start position:0% the market and you have a series of 00:18:01.760 --> 00:18:03.710 align:start position:0% the market and you have a series of dashboards<00:18:02.400> that<00:18:02.520> you<00:18:02.600> can<00:18:02.760> look<00:18:02.960> at<00:18:03.360> that<00:18:03.520> can 00:18:03.710 --> 00:18:03.720 align:start position:0% dashboards that you can look at that can 00:18:03.720 --> 00:18:05.590 align:start position:0% dashboards that you can look at that can assist<00:18:04.039> you<00:18:04.159> with<00:18:04.280> your<00:18:04.480> prediction<00:18:05.320> and<00:18:05.440> here 00:18:05.590 --> 00:18:05.600 align:start position:0% assist you with your prediction and here 00:18:05.600 --> 00:18:08.029 align:start position:0% assist you with your prediction and here there<00:18:05.720> is<00:18:05.840> an<00:18:06.000> interesting<00:18:06.480> link<00:18:07.440> uh<00:18:07.640> because 00:18:08.029 --> 00:18:08.039 align:start position:0% there is an interesting link uh because 00:18:08.039 --> 00:18:10.470 align:start position:0% there is an interesting link uh because a<00:18:08.200> lot<00:18:08.400> of<00:18:08.880> uh<00:18:09.240> governments<00:18:09.760> at<00:18:10.039> various 00:18:10.470 --> 00:18:10.480 align:start position:0% a lot of uh governments at various 00:18:10.480 --> 00:18:13.870 align:start position:0% a lot of uh governments at various levels<00:18:10.960> National<00:18:11.480> Regional<00:18:12.080> and<00:18:12.280> even<00:18:12.880> City 00:18:13.870 --> 00:18:13.880 align:start position:0% levels National Regional and even City 00:18:13.880 --> 00:18:16.590 align:start position:0% levels National Regional and even City uh<00:18:14.000> are<00:18:14.200> now<00:18:14.559> publishing<00:18:15.320> very<00:18:15.559> large<00:18:15.919> amounts 00:18:16.590 --> 00:18:16.600 align:start position:0% uh are now publishing very large amounts 00:18:16.600 --> 00:18:19.669 align:start position:0% uh are now publishing very large amounts of<00:18:16.799> data<00:18:17.200> sets<00:18:17.799> that<00:18:18.280> describe<00:18:19.280> what's 00:18:19.669 --> 00:18:19.679 align:start position:0% of data sets that describe what's 00:18:19.679 --> 00:18:22.230 align:start position:0% of data sets that describe what's happening<00:18:20.679> in<00:18:21.080> the<00:18:21.200> region<00:18:21.600> or<00:18:21.799> the<00:18:21.919> country 00:18:22.230 --> 00:18:22.240 align:start position:0% happening in the region or the country 00:18:22.240 --> 00:18:24.390 align:start position:0% happening in the region or the country at<00:18:22.440> various<00:18:22.799> level<00:18:23.080> so<00:18:23.280> economic<00:18:23.760> statistics 00:18:24.390 --> 00:18:24.400 align:start position:0% at various level so economic statistics 00:18:24.400 --> 00:18:27.230 align:start position:0% at various level so economic statistics demographics<00:18:25.039> transportation<00:18:25.760> and<00:18:25.880> so<00:18:26.039> on<00:18:26.600> so 00:18:27.230 --> 00:18:27.240 align:start position:0% demographics transportation and so on so 00:18:27.240 --> 00:18:30.430 align:start position:0% demographics transportation and so on so if<00:18:27.520> you<00:18:27.799> had<00:18:28.360> 12<00:18:28.840> months<00:18:29.440> to<00:18:29.640> work<00:18:29.840> on<00:18:30.080> such<00:18:30.240> a 00:18:30.430 --> 00:18:30.440 align:start position:0% if you had 12 months to work on such a 00:18:30.440 --> 00:18:32.549 align:start position:0% if you had 12 months to work on such a system<00:18:30.840> so<00:18:31.039> H<00:18:31.240> how<00:18:31.400> would<00:18:31.559> you<00:18:31.720> set<00:18:31.919> it<00:18:32.120> up<00:18:32.440> if 00:18:32.549 --> 00:18:32.559 align:start position:0% system so H how would you set it up if 00:18:32.559 --> 00:18:35.710 align:start position:0% system so H how would you set it up if we<00:18:32.679> could<00:18:32.880> start<00:18:33.120> from<00:18:33.280> Edmund<00:18:33.880> again<00:18:34.880> um<00:18:35.400> so 00:18:35.710 --> 00:18:35.720 align:start position:0% we could start from Edmund again um so 00:18:35.720 --> 00:18:37.430 align:start position:0% we could start from Edmund again um so so<00:18:35.919> so<00:18:36.080> the<00:18:36.159> question<00:18:36.360> is<00:18:36.480> that<00:18:36.640> we<00:18:37.159> how<00:18:37.280> would 00:18:37.430 --> 00:18:37.440 align:start position:0% so so the question is that we how would 00:18:37.440 --> 00:18:39.070 align:start position:0% so so the question is that we how would we<00:18:37.559> set<00:18:37.760> up<00:18:37.960> giving<00:18:38.200> you<00:18:38.440> access<00:18:38.679> to<00:18:38.799> all<00:18:38.919> this 00:18:39.070 --> 00:18:39.080 align:start position:0% we set up giving you access to all this 00:18:39.080 --> 00:18:40.430 align:start position:0% we set up giving you access to all this information<00:18:39.760> so<00:18:39.919> that<00:18:40.039> you<00:18:40.120> can<00:18:40.240> make<00:18:40.360> a 00:18:40.430 --> 00:18:40.440 align:start position:0% information so that you can make a 00:18:40.440 --> 00:18:42.270 align:start position:0% information so that you can make a prediction<00:18:40.840> yeah<00:18:40.960> or<00:18:41.320> which<00:18:41.559> kind<00:18:41.760> of<00:18:41.960> data 00:18:42.270 --> 00:18:42.280 align:start position:0% prediction yeah or which kind of data 00:18:42.280 --> 00:18:44.430 align:start position:0% prediction yeah or which kind of data sets<00:18:42.799> would<00:18:43.000> you<00:18:43.520> if<00:18:43.720> if<00:18:43.880> this<00:18:44.000> was<00:18:44.159> your 00:18:44.430 --> 00:18:44.440 align:start position:0% sets would you if if this was your 00:18:44.440 --> 00:18:46.310 align:start position:0% sets would you if if this was your dashboard<00:18:45.000> what<00:18:45.120> would<00:18:45.280> you<00:18:45.440> want<00:18:45.640> to<00:18:45.799> see<00:18:46.159> or 00:18:46.310 --> 00:18:46.320 align:start position:0% dashboard what would you want to see or 00:18:46.320 --> 00:18:48.990 align:start position:0% dashboard what would you want to see or for<00:18:46.559> what<00:18:46.799> kind<00:18:47.000> of<00:18:47.440> predictions<00:18:48.440> right<00:18:48.760> well 00:18:48.990 --> 00:18:49.000 align:start position:0% for what kind of predictions right well 00:18:49.000 --> 00:18:50.590 align:start position:0% for what kind of predictions right well well<00:18:49.159> it's<00:18:49.360> it's<00:18:49.480> going<00:18:49.600> to<00:18:50.120> really<00:18:50.360> you<00:18:50.480> know 00:18:50.590 --> 00:18:50.600 align:start position:0% well it's it's going to really you know 00:18:50.600 --> 00:18:54.149 align:start position:0% well it's it's going to really you know enti<00:18:50.880> entirely<00:18:51.200> depend<00:18:51.480> on<00:18:51.640> the<00:18:52.200> um<00:18:53.200> um<00:18:53.679> on<00:18:53.960> on 00:18:54.149 --> 00:18:54.159 align:start position:0% enti entirely depend on the um um on on 00:18:54.159 --> 00:18:56.190 align:start position:0% enti entirely depend on the um um on on the<00:18:54.919> the<00:18:55.039> subject<00:18:55.360> that<00:18:55.559> thing<00:18:55.840> you're<00:18:56.039> trying 00:18:56.190 --> 00:18:56.200 align:start position:0% the the subject that thing you're trying 00:18:56.200 --> 00:18:59.110 align:start position:0% the the subject that thing you're trying to<00:18:56.360> predict<00:18:56.880> but<00:18:57.200> um<00:18:58.159> uh<00:18:58.360> the<00:18:58.880> one<00:18:58.960> of<00:18:59.039> the 00:18:59.110 --> 00:18:59.120 align:start position:0% to predict but um uh the one of the 00:18:59.120 --> 00:19:00.070 align:start position:0% to predict but um uh the one of the things<00:18:59.280> you<00:18:59.480> you<00:18:59.559> want<00:18:59.679> to<00:18:59.760> know<00:18:59.880> is<00:18:59.960> what 00:19:00.070 --> 00:19:00.080 align:start position:0% things you you want to know is what 00:19:00.080 --> 00:19:01.270 align:start position:0% things you you want to know is what everybody<00:19:00.320> else<00:19:00.480> on<00:19:00.559> the<00:19:00.640> market<00:19:00.880> is<00:19:00.960> doing 00:19:01.270 --> 00:19:01.280 align:start position:0% everybody else on the market is doing 00:19:01.280 --> 00:19:02.630 align:start position:0% everybody else on the market is doing that<00:19:01.440> that's<00:19:01.559> something<00:19:01.919> that<00:19:02.240> um<00:19:02.440> that<00:19:02.559> you 00:19:02.630 --> 00:19:02.640 align:start position:0% that that's something that um that you 00:19:02.640 --> 00:19:05.870 align:start position:0% that that's something that um that you normally<00:19:03.280> uh<00:19:03.400> do<00:19:03.840> know<00:19:04.840> um<00:19:05.240> yeah<00:19:05.600> apart<00:19:05.760> from 00:19:05.870 --> 00:19:05.880 align:start position:0% normally uh do know um yeah apart from 00:19:05.880 --> 00:19:06.750 align:start position:0% normally uh do know um yeah apart from that<00:19:05.960> it's<00:19:06.039> going<00:19:06.120> to<00:19:06.200> be<00:19:06.280> very<00:19:06.400> context 00:19:06.750 --> 00:19:06.760 align:start position:0% that it's going to be very context 00:19:06.760 --> 00:19:11.630 align:start position:0% that it's going to be very context defend<00:19:07.000> on<00:19:07.120> I<00:19:07.760> think<00:19:08.760> um<00:19:09.400> I<00:19:09.520> think<00:19:09.840> one<00:19:10.240> sort<00:19:10.640> of 00:19:11.630 --> 00:19:11.640 align:start position:0% defend on I think um I think one sort of 00:19:11.640 --> 00:19:13.549 align:start position:0% defend on I think um I think one sort of importantance<00:19:12.120> and<00:19:12.320> con<00:19:12.960> sort<00:19:13.120> of 00:19:13.549 --> 00:19:13.559 align:start position:0% importantance and con sort of 00:19:13.559 --> 00:19:15.590 align:start position:0% importantance and con sort of convenience<00:19:14.080> thing<00:19:14.280> to<00:19:14.480> have<00:19:14.679> is<00:19:14.960> just<00:19:15.120> a<00:19:15.320> very 00:19:15.590 --> 00:19:15.600 align:start position:0% convenience thing to have is just a very 00:19:15.600 --> 00:19:17.750 align:start position:0% convenience thing to have is just a very simple<00:19:15.880> field<00:19:16.280> that<00:19:16.400> lets<00:19:16.600> you<00:19:16.799> just<00:19:17.039> ask<00:19:17.440> and 00:19:17.750 --> 00:19:17.760 align:start position:0% simple field that lets you just ask and 00:19:17.760 --> 00:19:19.669 align:start position:0% simple field that lets you just ask and make<00:19:17.880> a<00:19:18.039> prediction<00:19:18.480> yourself<00:19:19.400> just<00:19:19.559> like 00:19:19.669 --> 00:19:19.679 align:start position:0% make a prediction yourself just like 00:19:19.679 --> 00:19:21.669 align:start position:0% make a prediction yourself just like fill<00:19:19.880> in<00:19:20.000> a<00:19:20.159> text<00:19:20.400> box<00:19:20.720> make<00:19:20.840> a<00:19:21.000> prediction 00:19:21.669 --> 00:19:21.679 align:start position:0% fill in a text box make a prediction 00:19:21.679 --> 00:19:23.830 align:start position:0% fill in a text box make a prediction click<00:19:22.039> yes<00:19:22.320> and<00:19:22.440> then<00:19:22.559> you<00:19:22.679> know<00:19:23.280> maybe<00:19:23.520> put<00:19:23.640> in 00:19:23.830 --> 00:19:23.840 align:start position:0% click yes and then you know maybe put in 00:19:23.840 --> 00:19:25.710 align:start position:0% click yes and then you know maybe put in maybe<00:19:24.120> put<00:19:24.240> in<00:19:24.440> some<00:19:24.640> Market<00:19:24.960> maker<00:19:25.280> subsidy 00:19:25.710 --> 00:19:25.720 align:start position:0% maybe put in some Market maker subsidy 00:19:25.720 --> 00:19:27.310 align:start position:0% maybe put in some Market maker subsidy and<00:19:25.799> then<00:19:25.960> just<00:19:26.080> see<00:19:26.320> people<00:19:26.559> start<00:19:26.799> voting<00:19:27.080> on 00:19:27.310 --> 00:19:27.320 align:start position:0% and then just see people start voting on 00:19:27.320 --> 00:19:29.390 align:start position:0% and then just see people start voting on that 00:19:29.390 --> 00:19:29.400 align:start position:0% that 00:19:29.400 --> 00:19:32.310 align:start position:0% that um<00:19:30.120> I<00:19:30.200> mean<00:19:30.880> this<00:19:31.039> is<00:19:31.559> May<00:19:31.799> this<00:19:31.880> is<00:19:32.000> maybe<00:19:32.240> a 00:19:32.310 --> 00:19:32.320 align:start position:0% um I mean this is May this is maybe a 00:19:32.320 --> 00:19:34.870 align:start position:0% um I mean this is May this is maybe a somewhat<00:19:32.600> optimistic<00:19:33.159> answer<00:19:33.600> but<00:19:34.320> uh<00:19:34.760> you 00:19:34.870 --> 00:19:34.880 align:start position:0% somewhat optimistic answer but uh you 00:19:34.880 --> 00:19:37.630 align:start position:0% somewhat optimistic answer but uh you ask<00:19:35.039> for<00:19:35.159> sort<00:19:35.280> of<00:19:35.400> the<00:19:35.520> best<00:19:35.799> case<00:19:36.240> scenario<00:19:37.240> I 00:19:37.630 --> 00:19:37.640 align:start position:0% ask for sort of the best case scenario I 00:19:37.640 --> 00:19:40.390 align:start position:0% ask for sort of the best case scenario I so<00:19:37.840> I<00:19:37.919> would<00:19:38.120> say<00:19:38.880> you<00:19:39.000> know<00:19:39.159> if<00:19:39.240> you<00:19:39.440> had<00:19:40.039> like 00:19:40.390 --> 00:19:40.400 align:start position:0% so I would say you know if you had like 00:19:40.400 --> 00:19:43.710 align:start position:0% so I would say you know if you had like a<00:19:40.600> really<00:19:41.000> good<00:19:41.559> you<00:19:41.679> know<00:19:41.880> sort<00:19:42.039> of<00:19:42.919> AI 00:19:43.710 --> 00:19:43.720 align:start position:0% a really good you know sort of AI 00:19:43.720 --> 00:19:47.029 align:start position:0% a really good you know sort of AI machine<00:19:44.120> learning<00:19:45.120> uh<00:19:45.360> text<00:19:46.039> mining 00:19:47.029 --> 00:19:47.039 align:start position:0% machine learning uh text mining 00:19:47.039 --> 00:19:48.750 align:start position:0% machine learning uh text mining algorithm<00:19:47.559> that<00:19:47.679> could<00:19:47.840> suggest<00:19:48.240> answers<00:19:48.600> to 00:19:48.750 --> 00:19:48.760 align:start position:0% algorithm that could suggest answers to 00:19:48.760 --> 00:19:52.430 align:start position:0% algorithm that could suggest answers to you<00:19:49.600> um<00:19:50.159> and<00:19:50.600> you<00:19:50.679> could<00:19:50.840> always<00:19:51.760> uh<00:19:52.039> verify 00:19:52.430 --> 00:19:52.440 align:start position:0% you um and you could always uh verify 00:19:52.440 --> 00:19:56.149 align:start position:0% you um and you could always uh verify them<00:19:52.679> yourself<00:19:53.159> afterwards<00:19:54.280> um<00:19:55.280> I<00:19:55.720> I<00:19:55.840> I<00:19:55.960> think 00:19:56.149 --> 00:19:56.159 align:start position:0% them yourself afterwards um I I I think 00:19:56.159 --> 00:19:58.430 align:start position:0% them yourself afterwards um I I I think that<00:19:56.440> the<00:19:56.960> knowing<00:19:57.240> how<00:19:57.440> other<00:19:57.640> people<00:19:58.080> are 00:19:58.430 --> 00:19:58.440 align:start position:0% that the knowing how other people are 00:19:58.440 --> 00:20:01.230 align:start position:0% that the knowing how other people are are<00:19:58.840> deciding<00:19:59.280> is<00:20:00.080> that<00:20:00.280> that<00:20:00.440> that's<00:20:00.640> a<00:20:01.039> would 00:20:01.230 --> 00:20:01.240 align:start position:0% are deciding is that that that's a would 00:20:01.240 --> 00:20:03.830 align:start position:0% are deciding is that that that's a would also<00:20:01.440> be<00:20:01.559> a<00:20:01.679> very<00:20:01.960> strong<00:20:02.320> indicator 00:20:03.830 --> 00:20:03.840 align:start position:0% also be a very strong indicator 00:20:03.840 --> 00:20:06.909 align:start position:0% also be a very strong indicator um<00:20:04.840> but<00:20:05.159> I<00:20:05.400> you<00:20:05.480> know<00:20:05.679> that<00:20:05.960> relies<00:20:06.320> on<00:20:06.600> getting 00:20:06.909 --> 00:20:06.919 align:start position:0% um but I you know that relies on getting 00:20:06.919 --> 00:20:09.590 align:start position:0% um but I you know that relies on getting something<00:20:07.200> like<00:20:07.360> that<00:20:07.480> to<00:20:07.679> work<00:20:08.440> uh<00:20:08.880> we<00:20:09.120> we<00:20:09.200> are 00:20:09.590 --> 00:20:09.600 align:start position:0% something like that to work uh we we are 00:20:09.600 --> 00:20:11.470 align:start position:0% something like that to work uh we we are we<00:20:09.720> are<00:20:10.080> sort<00:20:10.280> of<00:20:10.440> researching<00:20:11.159> something 00:20:11.470 --> 00:20:11.480 align:start position:0% we are sort of researching something 00:20:11.480 --> 00:20:15.710 align:start position:0% we are sort of researching something like<00:20:11.679> that<00:20:12.559> uh<00:20:13.120> at<00:20:13.360> at<00:20:13.520> augur<00:20:14.080> but<00:20:14.720> um<00:20:15.400> it 00:20:15.710 --> 00:20:15.720 align:start position:0% like that uh at at augur but um it 00:20:15.720 --> 00:20:17.149 align:start position:0% like that uh at at augur but um it remains<00:20:15.919> to<00:20:16.000> be<00:20:16.080> seen<00:20:16.320> whether<00:20:16.559> that<00:20:16.679> will<00:20:16.799> pan 00:20:17.149 --> 00:20:17.159 align:start position:0% remains to be seen whether that will pan 00:20:17.159 --> 00:20:18.669 align:start position:0% remains to be seen whether that will pan out 00:20:18.669 --> 00:20:18.679 align:start position:0% out 00:20:18.679 --> 00:20:21.669 align:start position:0% out Martin<00:20:19.679> Martin<00:20:20.080> if<00:20:20.360> you<00:20:20.520> have<00:20:20.679> anything<00:20:21.159> to 00:20:21.669 --> 00:20:21.679 align:start position:0% Martin Martin if you have anything to 00:20:21.679 --> 00:20:25.029 align:start position:0% Martin Martin if you have anything to add<00:20:22.679> okay<00:20:23.039> so<00:20:23.400> then<00:20:23.679> I'm<00:20:23.880> trying<00:20:24.120> to<00:20:24.480> coax<00:20:24.840> a 00:20:25.029 --> 00:20:25.039 align:start position:0% add okay so then I'm trying to coax a 00:20:25.039 --> 00:20:31.149 align:start position:0% add okay so then I'm trying to coax a prediction<00:20:25.480> out<00:20:25.679> of<00:20:25.880> you<00:20:26.320> so<00:20:27.360> um<00:20:28.360> what<00:20:28.960> kind<00:20:30.159> so 00:20:31.149 --> 00:20:31.159 align:start position:0% prediction out of you so um what kind so 00:20:31.159 --> 00:20:35.270 align:start position:0% prediction out of you so um what kind so how<00:20:31.640> many<00:20:32.640> uh<00:20:33.200> question<00:20:33.799> types<00:20:34.720> do<00:20:34.880> you<00:20:35.039> so 00:20:35.270 --> 00:20:35.280 align:start position:0% how many uh question types do you so 00:20:35.280 --> 00:20:37.710 align:start position:0% how many uh question types do you so today<00:20:36.080> you<00:20:36.200> know<00:20:36.480> the<00:20:36.760> the<00:20:36.960> the<00:20:37.120> most 00:20:37.710 --> 00:20:37.720 align:start position:0% today you know the the the most 00:20:37.720 --> 00:20:40.190 align:start position:0% today you know the the the most frequently<00:20:38.720> cited<00:20:39.240> examples<00:20:39.679> of<00:20:39.799> prediction 00:20:40.190 --> 00:20:40.200 align:start position:0% frequently cited examples of prediction 00:20:40.200 --> 00:20:42.310 align:start position:0% frequently cited examples of prediction Market<00:20:40.559> are<00:20:40.760> about<00:20:41.039> political<00:20:41.520> events<00:20:41.919> so 00:20:42.310 --> 00:20:42.320 align:start position:0% Market are about political events so 00:20:42.320 --> 00:20:45.590 align:start position:0% Market are about political events so elections<00:20:43.320> or<00:20:43.880> uh<00:20:44.080> Hollywood<00:20:44.480> movies<00:20:45.240> gross 00:20:45.590 --> 00:20:45.600 align:start position:0% elections or uh Hollywood movies gross 00:20:45.600 --> 00:20:48.470 align:start position:0% elections or uh Hollywood movies gross totals<00:20:46.520> or 00:20:48.470 --> 00:20:48.480 align:start position:0% totals or 00:20:48.480 --> 00:20:51.270 align:start position:0% totals or um<00:20:49.480> issues<00:20:49.919> that<00:20:50.120> have<00:20:50.280> to<00:20:50.440> do<00:20:50.600> with<00:20:50.799> popular 00:20:51.270 --> 00:20:51.280 align:start position:0% um issues that have to do with popular 00:20:51.280 --> 00:20:53.230 align:start position:0% um issues that have to do with popular culture<00:20:51.679> in<00:20:51.840> general<00:20:52.320> right<00:20:52.720> and<00:20:52.840> so<00:20:53.120> those 00:20:53.230 --> 00:20:53.240 align:start position:0% culture in general right and so those 00:20:53.240 --> 00:20:56.830 align:start position:0% culture in general right and so those are<00:20:53.600> fairly<00:20:54.120> predictable<00:20:54.679> in<00:20:54.840> their<00:20:55.080> times<00:20:55.919> uh 00:20:56.830 --> 00:20:56.840 align:start position:0% are fairly predictable in their times uh 00:20:56.840 --> 00:20:59.510 align:start position:0% are fairly predictable in their times uh how<00:20:57.159> many<00:20:57.919> different<00:20:58.360> time<00:20:58.720> types<00:20:59.280> of 00:20:59.510 --> 00:20:59.520 align:start position:0% how many different time types of 00:20:59.520 --> 00:21:02.070 align:start position:0% how many different time types of predictions<00:21:00.360> do<00:21:00.480> you<00:21:00.679> expect<00:21:01.320> to<00:21:01.440> see<00:21:01.720> say<00:21:01.960> in 00:21:02.070 --> 00:21:02.080 align:start position:0% predictions do you expect to see say in 00:21:02.080 --> 00:21:04.470 align:start position:0% predictions do you expect to see say in the<00:21:02.240> next<00:21:02.760> five<00:21:03.000> years<00:21:03.280> time<00:21:03.600> so<00:21:03.720> a<00:21:03.919> 10-fold 00:21:04.470 --> 00:21:04.480 align:start position:0% the next five years time so a 10-fold 00:21:04.480 --> 00:21:06.870 align:start position:0% the next five years time so a 10-fold increase<00:21:04.840> a<00:21:05.280> 100<00:21:05.640> fold<00:21:05.880> increase<00:21:06.320> and<00:21:06.640> one 00:21:06.870 --> 00:21:06.880 align:start position:0% increase a 100 fold increase and one 00:21:06.880 --> 00:21:09.270 align:start position:0% increase a 100 fold increase and one millionfold<00:21:07.679> increase<00:21:08.679> and<00:21:08.880> what<00:21:09.000> would 00:21:09.270 --> 00:21:09.280 align:start position:0% millionfold increase and what would 00:21:09.280 --> 00:21:12.669 align:start position:0% millionfold increase and what would drive<00:21:10.080> that<00:21:10.320> growth<00:21:11.200> if<00:21:11.440> if<00:21:11.679> possible<00:21:12.200> so<00:21:12.559> can 00:21:12.669 --> 00:21:12.679 align:start position:0% drive that growth if if possible so can 00:21:12.679 --> 00:21:15.909 align:start position:0% drive that growth if if possible so can we<00:21:12.799> start<00:21:13.000> from<00:21:13.200> Jack<00:21:14.039> sure 00:21:15.909 --> 00:21:15.919 align:start position:0% we start from Jack sure 00:21:15.919 --> 00:21:18.310 align:start position:0% we start from Jack sure um<00:21:16.919> I<00:21:16.960> mean<00:21:17.240> I<00:21:17.400> so<00:21:17.520> I<00:21:17.600> don't<00:21:17.760> have<00:21:17.840> a<00:21:17.960> good<00:21:18.120> sense 00:21:18.310 --> 00:21:18.320 align:start position:0% um I mean I so I don't have a good sense 00:21:18.320 --> 00:21:21.590 align:start position:0% um I mean I so I don't have a good sense of<00:21:18.600> like<00:21:19.400> the<00:21:20.400> you<00:21:20.520> know<00:21:20.760> the<00:21:21.000> the<00:21:21.120> number<00:21:21.360> of 00:21:21.590 --> 00:21:21.600 align:start position:0% of like the you know the the number of 00:21:21.600 --> 00:21:23.149 align:start position:0% of like the you know the the number of categories<00:21:22.120> that<00:21:22.320> people<00:21:22.600> will<00:21:22.720> be<00:21:22.840> making 00:21:23.149 --> 00:21:23.159 align:start position:0% categories that people will be making 00:21:23.159 --> 00:21:27.789 align:start position:0% categories that people will be making predictions<00:21:23.559> on<00:21:24.720> um<00:21:25.720> I<00:21:25.840> think<00:21:26.120> that<00:21:26.640> the<00:21:27.640> you 00:21:27.789 --> 00:21:27.799 align:start position:0% predictions on um I think that the you 00:21:27.799 --> 00:21:30.710 align:start position:0% predictions on um I think that the you know<00:21:28.799> my<00:21:28.919> sense<00:21:29.120> is<00:21:29.360> that<00:21:30.000> and<00:21:30.159> maybe<00:21:30.400> this<00:21:30.480> is 00:21:30.710 --> 00:21:30.720 align:start position:0% know my sense is that and maybe this is 00:21:30.720 --> 00:21:32.950 align:start position:0% know my sense is that and maybe this is a<00:21:30.880> pessimistic<00:21:31.400> prediction<00:21:31.840> but<00:21:32.279> I<00:21:32.520> I<00:21:32.720> I<00:21:32.799> feel 00:21:32.950 --> 00:21:32.960 align:start position:0% a pessimistic prediction but I I I feel 00:21:32.960 --> 00:21:34.909 align:start position:0% a pessimistic prediction but I I I feel like<00:21:33.240> the<00:21:33.520> the<00:21:33.919> you<00:21:34.039> know<00:21:34.200> the<00:21:34.320> few<00:21:34.600> basic 00:21:34.909 --> 00:21:34.919 align:start position:0% like the the you know the few basic 00:21:34.919 --> 00:21:38.190 align:start position:0% like the the you know the few basic things<00:21:35.159> that<00:21:35.360> people<00:21:36.000> want<00:21:36.200> to<00:21:36.480> predict<00:21:37.480> uh 00:21:38.190 --> 00:21:38.200 align:start position:0% things that people want to predict uh 00:21:38.200 --> 00:21:39.990 align:start position:0% things that people want to predict uh won't<00:21:38.520> be<00:21:38.799> that<00:21:39.000> different<00:21:39.360> than<00:21:39.679> they<00:21:39.799> are 00:21:39.990 --> 00:21:40.000 align:start position:0% won't be that different than they are 00:21:40.000 --> 00:21:41.470 align:start position:0% won't be that different than they are now<00:21:40.159> I<00:21:40.240> think<00:21:40.400> I<00:21:40.480> think<00:21:40.720> politics<00:21:41.200> Will 00:21:41.470 --> 00:21:41.480 align:start position:0% now I think I think politics Will 00:21:41.480 --> 00:21:43.269 align:start position:0% now I think I think politics Will decline<00:21:41.960> I<00:21:42.039> think<00:21:42.200> that's<00:21:42.360> sort<00:21:42.520> of<00:21:42.720> a<00:21:43.159> you 00:21:43.269 --> 00:21:43.279 align:start position:0% decline I think that's sort of a you 00:21:43.279 --> 00:21:45.269 align:start position:0% decline I think that's sort of a you know<00:21:44.000> for<00:21:44.159> some<00:21:44.320> reason<00:21:44.559> that<00:21:44.720> has<00:21:44.919> become 00:21:45.269 --> 00:21:45.279 align:start position:0% know for some reason that has become 00:21:45.279 --> 00:21:48.950 align:start position:0% know for some reason that has become prediction<00:21:45.679> markets<00:21:46.320> a<00:21:47.120> uh<00:21:48.080> you<00:21:48.200> know<00:21:48.640> the<00:21:48.840> the 00:21:48.950 --> 00:21:48.960 align:start position:0% prediction markets a uh you know the the 00:21:48.960 --> 00:21:53.230 align:start position:0% prediction markets a uh you know the the sort<00:21:49.120> of<00:21:49.240> go-to<00:21:49.760> topic<00:21:50.679> um<00:21:51.440> I<00:21:51.520> think<00:21:51.840> that<00:21:52.799> um 00:21:53.230 --> 00:21:53.240 align:start position:0% sort of go-to topic um I think that um 00:21:53.240 --> 00:21:55.070 align:start position:0% sort of go-to topic um I think that um one<00:21:53.440> thing<00:21:53.799> that<00:21:54.080> PE<00:21:54.440> one<00:21:54.600> thing<00:21:54.760> that<00:21:54.880> might 00:21:55.070 --> 00:21:55.080 align:start position:0% one thing that PE one thing that might 00:21:55.080 --> 00:21:57.669 align:start position:0% one thing that PE one thing that might be<00:21:55.640> uh<00:21:55.799> somewhat<00:21:56.159> new<00:21:56.360> so<00:21:56.559> you<00:21:56.640> mentioned<00:21:57.159> like 00:21:57.669 --> 00:21:57.679 align:start position:0% be uh somewhat new so you mentioned like 00:21:57.679 --> 00:22:00.789 align:start position:0% be uh somewhat new so you mentioned like Hollywood<00:21:58.080> stock<00:21:58.600> exchange<00:21:59.279> uh<00:21:59.840> will<00:22:00.080> be 00:22:00.789 --> 00:22:00.799 align:start position:0% Hollywood stock exchange uh will be 00:22:00.799 --> 00:22:04.190 align:start position:0% Hollywood stock exchange uh will be people<00:22:01.799> um<00:22:02.320> sort<00:22:02.480> of<00:22:02.640> betting<00:22:02.919> on<00:22:03.120> things<00:22:03.400> like 00:22:04.190 --> 00:22:04.200 align:start position:0% people um sort of betting on things like 00:22:04.200 --> 00:22:07.510 align:start position:0% people um sort of betting on things like who<00:22:04.360> will<00:22:04.559> win<00:22:04.919> American<00:22:05.320> Idol<00:22:06.320> um<00:22:06.919> I<00:22:07.000> think<00:22:07.440> a 00:22:07.510 --> 00:22:07.520 align:start position:0% who will win American Idol um I think a 00:22:07.520 --> 00:22:08.830 align:start position:0% who will win American Idol um I think a lot<00:22:07.640> of<00:22:07.760> people<00:22:07.919> would<00:22:08.039> find<00:22:08.159> that<00:22:08.279> to<00:22:08.360> be<00:22:08.480> very 00:22:08.830 --> 00:22:08.840 align:start position:0% lot of people would find that to be very 00:22:08.840 --> 00:22:12.149 align:start position:0% lot of people would find that to be very diverting<00:22:10.080> uh<00:22:11.080> and<00:22:11.440> you<00:22:11.520> know<00:22:11.799> aside<00:22:12.039> from 00:22:12.149 --> 00:22:12.159 align:start position:0% diverting uh and you know aside from 00:22:12.159 --> 00:22:14.110 align:start position:0% diverting uh and you know aside from that<00:22:12.320> sort<00:22:12.440> of<00:22:12.600> the<00:22:12.799> The<00:22:12.919> Usual<00:22:13.480> Suspects<00:22:14.000> you 00:22:14.110 --> 00:22:14.120 align:start position:0% that sort of the The Usual Suspects you 00:22:14.120 --> 00:22:18.430 align:start position:0% that sort of the The Usual Suspects you know<00:22:14.279> you<00:22:14.400> can<00:22:14.600> imagine<00:22:15.039> like<00:22:15.760> um<00:22:16.720> you<00:22:16.840> know<00:22:17.400> uh 00:22:18.430 --> 00:22:18.440 align:start position:0% know you can imagine like um you know uh 00:22:18.440 --> 00:22:21.590 align:start position:0% know you can imagine like um you know uh Financial<00:22:19.440> betting<00:22:19.919> I<00:22:20.000> mean<00:22:20.679> it's<00:22:21.200> sort<00:22:21.400> of 00:22:21.590 --> 00:22:21.600 align:start position:0% Financial betting I mean it's sort of 00:22:21.600 --> 00:22:23.390 align:start position:0% Financial betting I mean it's sort of like<00:22:21.919> a<00:22:22.320> you<00:22:22.480> know<00:22:22.760> if<00:22:22.840> you<00:22:22.919> think<00:22:23.039> of<00:22:23.200> like 00:22:23.390 --> 00:22:23.400 align:start position:0% like a you know if you think of like 00:22:23.400 --> 00:22:26.190 align:start position:0% like a you know if you think of like well<00:22:23.600> options<00:22:23.880> are<00:22:24.120> kind<00:22:24.279> of<00:22:24.400> like<00:22:24.640> betting<00:22:25.640> um 00:22:26.190 --> 00:22:26.200 align:start position:0% well options are kind of like betting um 00:22:26.200 --> 00:22:28.789 align:start position:0% well options are kind of like betting um you<00:22:26.320> know<00:22:26.480> maybe<00:22:26.720> Sports<00:22:27.240> things<00:22:27.440> like<00:22:27.640> that 00:22:28.789 --> 00:22:28.799 align:start position:0% you know maybe Sports things like that 00:22:28.799 --> 00:22:32.149 align:start position:0% you know maybe Sports things like that not<00:22:29.240> you<00:22:29.320> know<00:22:29.480> I'm<00:22:29.600> not<00:22:29.880> too<00:22:30.080> sure<00:22:30.279> on<00:22:30.559> how<00:22:31.159> on 00:22:32.149 --> 00:22:32.159 align:start position:0% not you know I'm not too sure on how on 00:22:32.159 --> 00:22:33.830 align:start position:0% not you know I'm not too sure on how on exactly<00:22:32.600> how<00:22:32.720> long<00:22:32.919> the<00:22:33.080> road<00:22:33.320> map<00:22:33.480> until<00:22:33.760> this 00:22:33.830 --> 00:22:33.840 align:start position:0% exactly how long the road map until this 00:22:33.840 --> 00:22:35.590 align:start position:0% exactly how long the road map until this will<00:22:34.000> be<00:22:34.200> but<00:22:34.360> one<00:22:34.600> area<00:22:34.880> that<00:22:35.000> I'm<00:22:35.200> interested 00:22:35.590 --> 00:22:35.600 align:start position:0% will be but one area that I'm interested 00:22:35.600 --> 00:22:38.070 align:start position:0% will be but one area that I'm interested in<00:22:35.799> is<00:22:36.039> actually<00:22:36.520> rather<00:22:36.799> than<00:22:37.799> sort<00:22:37.960> of 00:22:38.070 --> 00:22:38.080 align:start position:0% in is actually rather than sort of 00:22:38.080 --> 00:22:39.390 align:start position:0% in is actually rather than sort of starting<00:22:38.400> from<00:22:38.559> the<00:22:38.760> top<00:22:39.000> and<00:22:39.120> sort<00:22:39.279> of 00:22:39.390 --> 00:22:39.400 align:start position:0% starting from the top and sort of 00:22:39.400 --> 00:22:41.269 align:start position:0% starting from the top and sort of thinking<00:22:39.760> big<00:22:40.000> of<00:22:40.159> you<00:22:40.240> know<00:22:40.480> is<00:22:40.960> making 00:22:41.269 --> 00:22:41.279 align:start position:0% thinking big of you know is making 00:22:41.279 --> 00:22:42.830 align:start position:0% thinking big of you know is making predictions<00:22:41.760> on<00:22:42.000> whether<00:22:42.240> policy<00:22:42.559> a<00:22:42.679> or 00:22:42.830 --> 00:22:42.840 align:start position:0% predictions on whether policy a or 00:22:42.840 --> 00:22:45.029 align:start position:0% predictions on whether policy a or policy<00:22:43.159> B<00:22:43.440> will<00:22:43.720> will<00:22:44.200> be<00:22:44.480> more<00:22:44.640> likely<00:22:44.919> to 00:22:45.029 --> 00:22:45.039 align:start position:0% policy B will will be more likely to 00:22:45.039 --> 00:22:47.029 align:start position:0% policy B will will be more likely to increase<00:22:45.400> GDP<00:22:45.880> by<00:22:46.000> 5<00:22:46.200> trillion<00:22:46.640> years<00:22:46.840> or 00:22:47.029 --> 00:22:47.039 align:start position:0% increase GDP by 5 trillion years or 00:22:47.039 --> 00:22:49.830 align:start position:0% increase GDP by 5 trillion years or anything<00:22:47.279> of<00:22:47.480> that<00:22:47.679> scale<00:22:48.559> why<00:22:48.720> not<00:22:49.240> use<00:22:49.600> them 00:22:49.830 --> 00:22:49.840 align:start position:0% anything of that scale why not use them 00:22:49.840 --> 00:22:51.470 align:start position:0% anything of that scale why not use them for<00:22:50.279> things<00:22:50.559> that<00:22:50.679> are<00:22:50.919> extremely 00:22:51.470 --> 00:22:51.480 align:start position:0% for things that are extremely 00:22:51.480 --> 00:22:54.430 align:start position:0% for things that are extremely microscopic<00:22:52.480> so<00:22:53.200> one<00:22:53.520> simple<00:22:53.919> example<00:22:54.240> of 00:22:54.430 --> 00:22:54.440 align:start position:0% microscopic so one simple example of 00:22:54.440 --> 00:22:57.430 align:start position:0% microscopic so one simple example of prediction<00:22:54.840> Market<00:22:55.480> is<00:22:56.480> you<00:22:56.600> can<00:22:56.840> imagine<00:22:57.240> one 00:22:57.430 --> 00:22:57.440 align:start position:0% prediction Market is you can imagine one 00:22:57.440 --> 00:22:59.710 align:start position:0% prediction Market is you can imagine one being<00:22:57.679> used<00:22:58.039> to<00:22:58.600> say<00:22:58.760> create<00:22:59.000> a<00:22:59.159> voting<00:22:59.480> system 00:22:59.710 --> 00:22:59.720 align:start position:0% being used to say create a voting system 00:22:59.720 --> 00:23:02.669 align:start position:0% being used to say create a voting system for<00:22:59.840> a<00:22:59.960> decentralized<00:23:00.600> Reddit<00:23:01.320> so<00:23:02.120> the<00:23:02.320> basic 00:23:02.669 --> 00:23:02.679 align:start position:0% for a decentralized Reddit so the basic 00:23:02.679 --> 00:23:04.310 align:start position:0% for a decentralized Reddit so the basic problem<00:23:03.000> here<00:23:03.240> is<00:23:03.480> that<00:23:03.640> in<00:23:03.799> General<00:23:04.159> on 00:23:04.310 --> 00:23:04.320 align:start position:0% problem here is that in General on 00:23:04.320 --> 00:23:06.230 align:start position:0% problem here is that in General on Reddit<00:23:04.559> you<00:23:04.640> have<00:23:04.799> two<00:23:04.960> types<00:23:05.159> of<00:23:05.320> moderation 00:23:06.230 --> 00:23:06.240 align:start position:0% Reddit you have two types of moderation 00:23:06.240 --> 00:23:07.990 align:start position:0% Reddit you have two types of moderation one<00:23:06.520> type<00:23:06.760> is<00:23:06.919> community<00:23:07.360> moderation<00:23:07.840> up 00:23:07.990 --> 00:23:08.000 align:start position:0% one type is community moderation up 00:23:08.000 --> 00:23:09.990 align:start position:0% one type is community moderation up votes<00:23:08.200> and<00:23:08.360> down<00:23:08.600> votes<00:23:09.240> it's<00:23:09.440> nice<00:23:09.720> it's<00:23:09.880> sort 00:23:09.990 --> 00:23:10.000 align:start position:0% votes and down votes it's nice it's sort 00:23:10.000 --> 00:23:11.590 align:start position:0% votes and down votes it's nice it's sort of<00:23:10.159> democratic<00:23:10.679> and<00:23:10.799> decentralized<00:23:11.480> and 00:23:11.590 --> 00:23:11.600 align:start position:0% of democratic and decentralized and 00:23:11.600 --> 00:23:13.149 align:start position:0% of democratic and decentralized and people<00:23:11.840> like<00:23:12.120> that<00:23:12.320> but<00:23:12.480> the<00:23:12.600> problem<00:23:12.840> is<00:23:13.000> it's 00:23:13.149 --> 00:23:13.159 align:start position:0% people like that but the problem is it's 00:23:13.159 --> 00:23:15.789 align:start position:0% people like that but the problem is it's slow<00:23:14.039> and<00:23:14.200> people<00:23:14.520> don't<00:23:14.799> like<00:23:15.039> the<00:23:15.240> fact<00:23:15.520> that 00:23:15.789 --> 00:23:15.799 align:start position:0% slow and people don't like the fact that 00:23:15.799 --> 00:23:17.909 align:start position:0% slow and people don't like the fact that if<00:23:16.080> someone<00:23:16.360> posts<00:23:16.640> a<00:23:16.760> spammy<00:23:17.159> Content<00:23:17.600> it 00:23:17.909 --> 00:23:17.919 align:start position:0% if someone posts a spammy Content it 00:23:17.919 --> 00:23:19.549 align:start position:0% if someone posts a spammy Content it comment<00:23:18.240> it<00:23:18.360> still<00:23:18.559> stays<00:23:18.840> on<00:23:19.039> for<00:23:19.320> like<00:23:19.440> at 00:23:19.549 --> 00:23:19.559 align:start position:0% comment it still stays on for like at 00:23:19.559 --> 00:23:21.549 align:start position:0% comment it still stays on for like at least<00:23:19.760> a<00:23:19.880> couple<00:23:20.080> of<00:23:20.240> hours<00:23:20.559> before<00:23:20.799> it<00:23:20.960> gets 00:23:21.549 --> 00:23:21.559 align:start position:0% least a couple of hours before it gets 00:23:21.559 --> 00:23:23.590 align:start position:0% least a couple of hours before it gets kicked<00:23:21.880> off<00:23:22.039> the<00:23:22.200> page<00:23:22.840> the<00:23:22.960> second<00:23:23.279> kind<00:23:23.480> is 00:23:23.590 --> 00:23:23.600 align:start position:0% kicked off the page the second kind is 00:23:23.600 --> 00:23:25.190 align:start position:0% kicked off the page the second kind is centralized<00:23:24.159> moderation<00:23:24.799> which<00:23:24.960> people 00:23:25.190 --> 00:23:25.200 align:start position:0% centralized moderation which people 00:23:25.200 --> 00:23:26.789 align:start position:0% centralized moderation which people don't<00:23:25.440> like<00:23:25.720> because<00:23:26.000> it's<00:23:26.159> you<00:23:26.240> know<00:23:26.400> the<00:23:26.559> big 00:23:26.789 --> 00:23:26.799 align:start position:0% don't like because it's you know the big 00:23:26.799 --> 00:23:28.669 align:start position:0% don't like because it's you know the big big<00:23:27.000> bad<00:23:27.200> guy<00:23:27.360> with<00:23:27.440> an<00:23:27.559> Iron<00:23:27.799> Fist<00:23:28.039> and<00:23:28.159> for 00:23:28.669 --> 00:23:28.679 align:start position:0% big bad guy with an Iron Fist and for 00:23:28.679 --> 00:23:31.510 align:start position:0% big bad guy with an Iron Fist and for everything<00:23:29.480> so<00:23:30.400> one<00:23:30.640> sort<00:23:30.840> of<00:23:31.000> alternative 00:23:31.510 --> 00:23:31.520 align:start position:0% everything so one sort of alternative 00:23:31.520 --> 00:23:34.470 align:start position:0% everything so one sort of alternative proposal<00:23:32.039> is<00:23:32.720> imagine<00:23:33.440> every<00:23:33.760> single<00:23:34.120> Reddit 00:23:34.470 --> 00:23:34.480 align:start position:0% proposal is imagine every single Reddit 00:23:34.480 --> 00:23:37.350 align:start position:0% proposal is imagine every single Reddit comment<00:23:35.039> being<00:23:35.360> a<00:23:35.520> prediction<00:23:36.000> market<00:23:37.000> and 00:23:37.350 --> 00:23:37.360 align:start position:0% comment being a prediction market and 00:23:37.360 --> 00:23:38.950 align:start position:0% comment being a prediction market and people<00:23:37.760> could<00:23:37.960> you<00:23:38.039> know<00:23:38.200> up<00:23:38.400> vote<00:23:38.559> and<00:23:38.679> down 00:23:38.950 --> 00:23:38.960 align:start position:0% people could you know up vote and down 00:23:38.960 --> 00:23:40.710 align:start position:0% people could you know up vote and down vote<00:23:39.520> they<00:23:39.640> could<00:23:39.760> up<00:23:39.919> vote<00:23:40.080> and<00:23:40.159> down<00:23:40.360> vote 00:23:40.710 --> 00:23:40.720 align:start position:0% vote they could up vote and down vote 00:23:40.720 --> 00:23:41.950 align:start position:0% vote they could up vote and down vote themselves<00:23:41.080> they<00:23:41.200> could<00:23:41.400> potentially<00:23:41.880> you 00:23:41.950 --> 00:23:41.960 align:start position:0% themselves they could potentially you 00:23:41.960 --> 00:23:43.310 align:start position:0% themselves they could potentially you know<00:23:42.120> have<00:23:42.200> a<00:23:42.320> machine<00:23:42.600> learning<00:23:42.919> bought<00:23:43.159> do 00:23:43.310 --> 00:23:43.320 align:start position:0% know have a machine learning bought do 00:23:43.320 --> 00:23:44.710 align:start position:0% know have a machine learning bought do the<00:23:43.400> up<00:23:43.559> voting<00:23:43.799> and<00:23:43.919> down<00:23:44.120> voting<00:23:44.480> you<00:23:44.559> know 00:23:44.710 --> 00:23:44.720 align:start position:0% the up voting and down voting you know 00:23:44.720 --> 00:23:47.789 align:start position:0% the up voting and down voting you know potentially<00:23:45.159> any<00:23:45.400> strategy<00:23:45.960> goes<00:23:46.960> but<00:23:47.600> well 00:23:47.789 --> 00:23:47.799 align:start position:0% potentially any strategy goes but well 00:23:47.799 --> 00:23:49.350 align:start position:0% potentially any strategy goes but well the<00:23:47.919> thing<00:23:48.080> that<00:23:48.200> they<00:23:48.279> will<00:23:48.440> be<00:23:48.640> predicting 00:23:49.350 --> 00:23:49.360 align:start position:0% the thing that they will be predicting 00:23:49.360 --> 00:23:50.990 align:start position:0% the thing that they will be predicting is<00:23:49.600> you<00:23:49.720> know<00:23:49.840> it<00:23:49.960> could<00:23:50.159> imagine<00:23:50.600> some<00:23:50.840> sort 00:23:50.990 --> 00:23:51.000 align:start position:0% is you know it could imagine some sort 00:23:51.000 --> 00:23:53.310 align:start position:0% is you know it could imagine some sort of<00:23:51.159> pool<00:23:51.440> of<00:23:51.600> moderate<00:23:52.039> of<00:23:52.559> community 00:23:53.310 --> 00:23:53.320 align:start position:0% of pool of moderate of community 00:23:53.320 --> 00:23:55.669 align:start position:0% of pool of moderate of community moderators<00:23:54.320> and<00:23:54.840> this<00:23:55.000> could<00:23:55.159> be<00:23:55.320> sort<00:23:55.480> of 00:23:55.669 --> 00:23:55.679 align:start position:0% moderators and this could be sort of 00:23:55.679 --> 00:23:57.470 align:start position:0% moderators and this could be sort of very<00:23:55.840> you<00:23:55.960> know<00:23:56.120> very<00:23:56.360> large<00:23:56.720> fairly<00:23:57.039> easy<00:23:57.279> to 00:23:57.470 --> 00:23:57.480 align:start position:0% very you know very large fairly easy to 00:23:57.480 --> 00:23:59.350 align:start position:0% very you know very large fairly easy to join<00:23:58.240> and<00:23:58.559> you<00:23:58.679> know<00:23:58.799> people<00:23:58.960> would<00:23:59.120> sort<00:23:59.240> of 00:23:59.350 --> 00:23:59.360 align:start position:0% join and you know people would sort of 00:23:59.360 --> 00:24:01.870 align:start position:0% join and you know people would sort of be<00:23:59.520> moderating<00:24:00.039> random<00:24:00.360> Subs<00:24:00.720> sets<00:24:01.000> of<00:24:01.679> of 00:24:01.870 --> 00:24:01.880 align:start position:0% be moderating random Subs sets of of 00:24:01.880 --> 00:24:03.310 align:start position:0% be moderating random Subs sets of of comments<00:24:02.320> and<00:24:02.440> this<00:24:02.520> would<00:24:02.679> be<00:24:02.799> a<00:24:02.919> prediction 00:24:03.310 --> 00:24:03.320 align:start position:0% comments and this would be a prediction 00:24:03.320 --> 00:24:05.630 align:start position:0% comments and this would be a prediction Market<00:24:03.720> on<00:24:04.120> how<00:24:04.360> they<00:24:04.480> would<00:24:04.679> vote<00:24:05.279> so<00:24:05.440> it's 00:24:05.630 --> 00:24:05.640 align:start position:0% Market on how they would vote so it's 00:24:05.640 --> 00:24:07.350 align:start position:0% Market on how they would vote so it's sort<00:24:05.799> of<00:24:06.000> kind<00:24:06.120> of<00:24:06.279> like<00:24:06.520> I<00:24:06.640> think<00:24:07.039> Robin 00:24:07.350 --> 00:24:07.360 align:start position:0% sort of kind of like I think Robin 00:24:07.360 --> 00:24:08.750 align:start position:0% sort of kind of like I think Robin Hansen<00:24:07.799> came<00:24:07.960> up<00:24:08.120> with<00:24:08.279> what<00:24:08.400> he<00:24:08.520> called 00:24:08.750 --> 00:24:08.760 align:start position:0% Hansen came up with what he called 00:24:08.760 --> 00:24:10.310 align:start position:0% Hansen came up with what he called predict<00:24:09.200> cracy<00:24:09.640> which<00:24:09.760> is<00:24:09.880> like<00:24:10.000> using 00:24:10.310 --> 00:24:10.320 align:start position:0% predict cracy which is like using 00:24:10.320 --> 00:24:11.789 align:start position:0% predict cracy which is like using prediction<00:24:10.679> markets<00:24:11.039> on<00:24:11.200> voting<00:24:11.520> so<00:24:11.679> this 00:24:11.789 --> 00:24:11.799 align:start position:0% prediction markets on voting so this 00:24:11.799 --> 00:24:14.110 align:start position:0% prediction markets on voting so this would<00:24:11.960> be<00:24:12.279> kind<00:24:12.400> of<00:24:12.559> similar<00:24:13.360> so<00:24:13.600> the<00:24:13.720> benefit 00:24:14.110 --> 00:24:14.120 align:start position:0% would be kind of similar so the benefit 00:24:14.120 --> 00:24:16.310 align:start position:0% would be kind of similar so the benefit here<00:24:14.320> is<00:24:14.559> that<00:24:14.720> you<00:24:14.840> know<00:24:15.080> people<00:24:15.480> could<00:24:16.080> make 00:24:16.310 --> 00:24:16.320 align:start position:0% here is that you know people could make 00:24:16.320 --> 00:24:18.149 align:start position:0% here is that you know people could make sort<00:24:16.520> of<00:24:16.640> down<00:24:16.919> votes<00:24:17.159> and<00:24:17.360> potentially<00:24:17.880> push 00:24:18.149 --> 00:24:18.159 align:start position:0% sort of down votes and potentially push 00:24:18.159 --> 00:24:20.470 align:start position:0% sort of down votes and potentially push content<00:24:18.559> down<00:24:18.840> very<00:24:19.120> quickly<00:24:19.720> but<00:24:20.200> you<00:24:20.320> know 00:24:20.470 --> 00:24:20.480 align:start position:0% content down very quickly but you know 00:24:20.480 --> 00:24:21.510 align:start position:0% content down very quickly but you know by<00:24:20.600> doing<00:24:20.880> that<00:24:21.039> they're<00:24:21.200> putting<00:24:21.400> their 00:24:21.510 --> 00:24:21.520 align:start position:0% by doing that they're putting their 00:24:21.520 --> 00:24:22.909 align:start position:0% by doing that they're putting their money<00:24:21.919> where<00:24:22.080> their<00:24:22.200> mouth<00:24:22.520> is<00:24:22.720> and<00:24:22.840> if 00:24:22.909 --> 00:24:22.919 align:start position:0% money where their mouth is and if 00:24:22.919 --> 00:24:24.630 align:start position:0% money where their mouth is and if they're<00:24:23.120> abusing<00:24:23.480> the<00:24:23.640> system<00:24:24.120> then 00:24:24.630 --> 00:24:24.640 align:start position:0% they're abusing the system then 00:24:24.640 --> 00:24:26.070 align:start position:0% they're abusing the system then theoretically<00:24:25.200> someone<00:24:25.440> else<00:24:25.679> could<00:24:25.799> sort<00:24:25.960> of 00:24:26.070 --> 00:24:26.080 align:start position:0% theoretically someone else could sort of 00:24:26.080 --> 00:24:28.470 align:start position:0% theoretically someone else could sort of bet<00:24:26.320> against<00:24:26.520> them<00:24:26.640> and<00:24:26.760> steal<00:24:27.039> their<00:24:27.159> money 00:24:28.470 --> 00:24:28.480 align:start position:0% bet against them and steal their money 00:24:28.480 --> 00:24:30.750 align:start position:0% bet against them and steal their money so<00:24:29.159> you<00:24:29.279> know<00:24:29.520> that's<00:24:29.799> just<00:24:30.039> one<00:24:30.360> very<00:24:30.640> you 00:24:30.750 --> 00:24:30.760 align:start position:0% so you know that's just one very you 00:24:30.760 --> 00:24:32.710 align:start position:0% so you know that's just one very you know<00:24:31.000> very<00:24:31.320> simple<00:24:31.679> sort<00:24:31.880> of<00:24:32.480> you<00:24:32.559> know 00:24:32.710 --> 00:24:32.720 align:start position:0% know very simple sort of you know 00:24:32.720 --> 00:24:35.149 align:start position:0% know very simple sort of you know completely<00:24:33.159> out<00:24:33.440> there<00:24:34.200> example<00:24:34.720> of<00:24:34.960> how 00:24:35.149 --> 00:24:35.159 align:start position:0% completely out there example of how 00:24:35.159 --> 00:24:36.590 align:start position:0% completely out there example of how prediction<00:24:35.559> markets<00:24:35.880> could<00:24:36.000> be<00:24:36.120> applied<00:24:36.440> on 00:24:36.590 --> 00:24:36.600 align:start position:0% prediction markets could be applied on 00:24:36.600 --> 00:24:39.029 align:start position:0% prediction markets could be applied on like<00:24:36.799> Sub<00:24:37.200> sub<00:24:37.559> dollar 00:24:39.029 --> 00:24:39.039 align:start position:0% like Sub sub dollar 00:24:39.039 --> 00:24:41.549 align:start position:0% like Sub sub dollar scales<00:24:40.039> so<00:24:40.320> again<00:24:40.480> let<00:24:40.600> me<00:24:40.720> build<00:24:40.919> on<00:24:41.080> that<00:24:41.200> so 00:24:41.549 --> 00:24:41.559 align:start position:0% scales so again let me build on that so 00:24:41.559 --> 00:24:43.950 align:start position:0% scales so again let me build on that so I<00:24:41.679> find<00:24:41.880> it<00:24:42.279> uh<00:24:42.640> interesting<00:24:43.080> and<00:24:43.279> remarkable 00:24:43.950 --> 00:24:43.960 align:start position:0% I find it uh interesting and remarkable 00:24:43.960 --> 00:24:46.590 align:start position:0% I find it uh interesting and remarkable how<00:24:44.360> still<00:24:44.840> web<00:24:45.120> oriented<00:24:46.039> much<00:24:46.200> of<00:24:46.360> the 00:24:46.590 --> 00:24:46.600 align:start position:0% how still web oriented much of the 00:24:46.600 --> 00:24:48.510 align:start position:0% how still web oriented much of the discussion<00:24:47.120> is<00:24:47.399> but<00:24:47.640> suppose<00:24:48.000> you<00:24:48.159> want<00:24:48.320> to 00:24:48.510 --> 00:24:48.520 align:start position:0% discussion is but suppose you want to 00:24:48.520 --> 00:24:51.990 align:start position:0% discussion is but suppose you want to know<00:24:49.120> um<00:24:49.840> how<00:24:50.000> many<00:24:50.440> new<00:24:50.760> stores<00:24:51.520> a<00:24:51.679> large 00:24:51.990 --> 00:24:52.000 align:start position:0% know um how many new stores a large 00:24:52.000 --> 00:24:54.149 align:start position:0% know um how many new stores a large company<00:24:52.399> like<00:24:52.600> Walmart<00:24:53.440> will<00:24:53.640> open<00:24:53.919> in<00:24:54.039> the 00:24:54.149 --> 00:24:54.159 align:start position:0% company like Walmart will open in the 00:24:54.159 --> 00:24:56.669 align:start position:0% company like Walmart will open in the United<00:24:54.480> States<00:24:54.880> next<00:24:55.159> year<00:24:56.039> uh<00:24:56.200> you<00:24:56.440> really 00:24:56.669 --> 00:24:56.679 align:start position:0% United States next year uh you really 00:24:56.679 --> 00:24:58.630 align:start position:0% United States next year uh you really want<00:24:56.880> to<00:24:57.159> have<00:24:57.440> the<00:24:57.600> people<00:24:57.840> who<00:24:57.919> are<00:24:58.039> driving 00:24:58.630 --> 00:24:58.640 align:start position:0% want to have the people who are driving 00:24:58.640 --> 00:25:01.590 align:start position:0% want to have the people who are driving by<00:24:58.880> the<00:24:59.039> construction<00:24:59.679> sites<00:25:00.480> of<00:25:00.760> the<00:25:00.919> Walmart 00:25:01.590 --> 00:25:01.600 align:start position:0% by the construction sites of the Walmart 00:25:01.600 --> 00:25:04.070 align:start position:0% by the construction sites of the Walmart site<00:25:02.080> to<00:25:02.279> tell<00:25:02.520> you<00:25:02.880> if<00:25:03.039> the<00:25:03.279> construction<00:25:03.840> is 00:25:04.070 --> 00:25:04.080 align:start position:0% site to tell you if the construction is 00:25:04.080 --> 00:25:06.590 align:start position:0% site to tell you if the construction is proceeding<00:25:04.520> on<00:25:04.720> schedule<00:25:05.159> so<00:25:05.799> what<00:25:06.080> kind<00:25:06.360> of 00:25:06.590 --> 00:25:06.600 align:start position:0% proceeding on schedule so what kind of 00:25:06.600 --> 00:25:08.149 align:start position:0% proceeding on schedule so what kind of mechanism<00:25:07.039> do<00:25:07.159> you<00:25:07.279> think<00:25:07.440> could<00:25:07.559> be<00:25:07.720> put<00:25:07.919> into 00:25:08.149 --> 00:25:08.159 align:start position:0% mechanism do you think could be put into 00:25:08.159 --> 00:25:11.190 align:start position:0% mechanism do you think could be put into place<00:25:08.440> to<00:25:08.640> have<00:25:09.000> those<00:25:09.480> very<00:25:10.240> microl<00:25:10.760> local 00:25:11.190 --> 00:25:11.200 align:start position:0% place to have those very microl local 00:25:11.200 --> 00:25:14.549 align:start position:0% place to have those very microl local observations<00:25:12.200> feed<00:25:12.960> into<00:25:13.320> a<00:25:13.520> macro<00:25:14.039> process 00:25:14.549 --> 00:25:14.559 align:start position:0% observations feed into a macro process 00:25:14.559 --> 00:25:16.350 align:start position:0% observations feed into a macro process like<00:25:14.880> how<00:25:15.080> well<00:25:15.399> Walmart<00:25:15.840> is<00:25:15.960> going<00:25:16.039> to<00:25:16.159> do 00:25:16.350 --> 00:25:16.360 align:start position:0% like how well Walmart is going to do 00:25:16.360 --> 00:25:18.590 align:start position:0% like how well Walmart is going to do next<00:25:16.600> year<00:25:17.159> make<00:25:17.320> this<00:25:17.480> sort<00:25:17.640> of<00:25:17.799> haakan<00:25:18.279> ideal 00:25:18.590 --> 00:25:18.600 align:start position:0% next year make this sort of haakan ideal 00:25:18.600 --> 00:25:21.029 align:start position:0% next year make this sort of haakan ideal of<00:25:18.799> markets<00:25:19.240> as<00:25:19.480> sort<00:25:19.640> of<00:25:20.120> decentralized 00:25:21.029 --> 00:25:21.039 align:start position:0% of markets as sort of decentralized 00:25:21.039 --> 00:25:22.870 align:start position:0% of markets as sort of decentralized information<00:25:21.520> aggregators<00:25:22.200> actually<00:25:22.640> really 00:25:22.870 --> 00:25:22.880 align:start position:0% information aggregators actually really 00:25:22.880 --> 00:25:27.549 align:start position:0% information aggregators actually really work<00:25:23.240> well<00:25:24.200> um<00:25:25.159> I<00:25:25.600> think<00:25:25.919> I<00:25:26.000> mean<00:25:26.480> the<00:25:27.159> problem 00:25:27.549 --> 00:25:27.559 align:start position:0% work well um I think I mean the problem 00:25:27.559 --> 00:25:29.630 align:start position:0% work well um I think I mean the problem seems<00:25:27.880> to<00:25:28.000> be<00:25:28.120> a<00:25:28.320> user<00:25:28.600> interface<00:25:29.200> Problem<00:25:29.520> by 00:25:29.630 --> 00:25:29.640 align:start position:0% seems to be a user interface Problem by 00:25:29.640 --> 00:25:31.950 align:start position:0% seems to be a user interface Problem by and<00:25:29.840> large<00:25:30.679> so<00:25:30.960> you<00:25:31.080> know<00:25:31.200> the<00:25:31.360> solutions<00:25:31.799> are 00:25:31.950 --> 00:25:31.960 align:start position:0% and large so you know the solutions are 00:25:31.960 --> 00:25:34.750 align:start position:0% and large so you know the solutions are going<00:25:32.120> to<00:25:32.240> be<00:25:32.440> sort<00:25:32.760> of<00:25:33.760> things<00:25:34.200> that<00:25:34.399> you<00:25:34.480> know 00:25:34.750 --> 00:25:34.760 align:start position:0% going to be sort of things that you know 00:25:34.760 --> 00:25:36.789 align:start position:0% going to be sort of things that you know economists<00:25:35.360> might<00:25:35.520> not<00:25:35.640> find<00:25:36.000> to<00:25:36.320> sexy<00:25:36.679> but 00:25:36.789 --> 00:25:36.799 align:start position:0% economists might not find to sexy but 00:25:36.799 --> 00:25:38.870 align:start position:0% economists might not find to sexy but which<00:25:37.039> app<00:25:37.279> app<00:25:37.480> developers<00:25:38.000> perfectly<00:25:38.360> well 00:25:38.870 --> 00:25:38.880 align:start position:0% which app app developers perfectly well 00:25:38.880 --> 00:25:40.310 align:start position:0% which app app developers perfectly well understand<00:25:39.279> like<00:25:39.399> you<00:25:39.480> know<00:25:39.679> making<00:25:40.000> sort<00:25:40.159> of 00:25:40.310 --> 00:25:40.320 align:start position:0% understand like you know making sort of 00:25:40.320 --> 00:25:42.029 align:start position:0% understand like you know making sort of nice<00:25:40.520> and<00:25:40.640> easy<00:25:40.840> to<00:25:41.000> use<00:25:41.240> apps<00:25:41.559> that<00:25:41.760> people 00:25:42.029 --> 00:25:42.039 align:start position:0% nice and easy to use apps that people 00:25:42.039 --> 00:25:43.830 align:start position:0% nice and easy to use apps that people can<00:25:42.200> sort<00:25:42.399> of<00:25:42.919> you<00:25:43.039> know<00:25:43.200> see<00:25:43.440> a<00:25:43.520> bunch<00:25:43.720> of 00:25:43.830 --> 00:25:43.840 align:start position:0% can sort of you know see a bunch of 00:25:43.840 --> 00:25:46.549 align:start position:0% can sort of you know see a bunch of prediction<00:25:44.320> markets<00:25:44.840> potentially<00:25:45.480> even<00:25:46.440> you 00:25:46.549 --> 00:25:46.559 align:start position:0% prediction markets potentially even you 00:25:46.559 --> 00:25:48.430 align:start position:0% prediction markets potentially even you know<00:25:46.720> sort<00:25:46.880> of<00:25:47.000> use<00:25:47.240> machine<00:25:47.559> learning<00:25:48.240> to 00:25:48.430 --> 00:25:48.440 align:start position:0% know sort of use machine learning to 00:25:48.440 --> 00:25:49.750 align:start position:0% know sort of use machine learning to sort<00:25:48.559> of<00:25:48.720> suggest<00:25:49.159> which<00:25:49.279> ones<00:25:49.480> you<00:25:49.559> should 00:25:49.750 --> 00:25:49.760 align:start position:0% sort of suggest which ones you should 00:25:49.760 --> 00:25:52.630 align:start position:0% sort of suggest which ones you should look<00:25:50.080> at<00:25:50.480> and<00:25:51.120> just<00:25:51.399> make<00:25:51.600> it<00:25:51.840> very<00:25:52.080> easy<00:25:52.399> for 00:25:52.630 --> 00:25:52.640 align:start position:0% look at and just make it very easy for 00:25:52.640 --> 00:25:55.190 align:start position:0% look at and just make it very easy for people<00:25:52.919> to<00:25:53.679> bet<00:25:53.919> on 00:25:55.190 --> 00:25:55.200 align:start position:0% people to bet on 00:25:55.200 --> 00:25:58.350 align:start position:0% people to bet on them<00:25:56.200> one<00:25:56.520> thing<00:25:56.799> that<00:25:57.279> that's<00:25:57.720> important<00:25:58.039> in 00:25:58.350 --> 00:25:58.360 align:start position:0% them one thing that that's important in 00:25:58.360 --> 00:26:01.389 align:start position:0% them one thing that that's important in my<00:25:58.520> mind<00:25:59.159> is<00:25:59.440> that<00:25:59.640> you<00:25:59.799> can<00:26:00.520> have<00:26:00.799> very<00:26:01.159> very 00:26:01.389 --> 00:26:01.399 align:start position:0% my mind is that you can have very very 00:26:01.399 --> 00:26:04.950 align:start position:0% my mind is that you can have very very different<00:26:01.840> views<00:26:02.200> on<00:26:02.399> the<00:26:02.520> same<00:26:02.799> data<00:26:03.640> so<00:26:04.159> um 00:26:04.950 --> 00:26:04.960 align:start position:0% different views on the same data so um 00:26:04.960 --> 00:26:08.630 align:start position:0% different views on the same data so um so<00:26:05.960> one<00:26:06.600> reason<00:26:07.120> to<00:26:07.640> to<00:26:07.840> place<00:26:08.039> a<00:26:08.200> prediction 00:26:08.630 --> 00:26:08.640 align:start position:0% so one reason to to place a prediction 00:26:08.640 --> 00:26:10.669 align:start position:0% so one reason to to place a prediction on<00:26:08.799> a<00:26:09.159> prediction<00:26:09.520> Market<00:26:09.880> could<00:26:10.080> be<00:26:10.279> hedging 00:26:10.669 --> 00:26:10.679 align:start position:0% on a prediction Market could be hedging 00:26:10.679 --> 00:26:14.070 align:start position:0% on a prediction Market could be hedging against<00:26:10.960> the<00:26:11.159> risk<00:26:12.159> and<00:26:12.679> basically<00:26:13.039> buying<00:26:13.399> an 00:26:14.070 --> 00:26:14.080 align:start position:0% against the risk and basically buying an 00:26:14.080 --> 00:26:17.149 align:start position:0% against the risk and basically buying an insurance<00:26:15.080> um<00:26:15.880> but<00:26:16.080> that<00:26:16.320> would<00:26:16.600> obviously<00:26:16.960> be 00:26:17.149 --> 00:26:17.159 align:start position:0% insurance um but that would obviously be 00:26:17.159 --> 00:26:19.669 align:start position:0% insurance um but that would obviously be a<00:26:17.360> completely<00:26:17.880> different<00:26:18.640> uh<00:26:18.840> user<00:26:19.159> interface 00:26:19.669 --> 00:26:19.679 align:start position:0% a completely different uh user interface 00:26:19.679 --> 00:26:22.310 align:start position:0% a completely different uh user interface and<00:26:19.880> and<00:26:20.000> look<00:26:20.120> and<00:26:20.320> feel<00:26:21.159> uh<00:26:21.320> but<00:26:21.600> still<00:26:22.039> it 00:26:22.310 --> 00:26:22.320 align:start position:0% and and look and feel uh but still it 00:26:22.320 --> 00:26:25.230 align:start position:0% and and look and feel uh but still it could<00:26:22.640> it<00:26:22.760> could<00:26:23.000> access<00:26:23.399> or<00:26:23.919> it<00:26:24.080> could<00:26:24.559> um<00:26:24.960> be 00:26:25.230 --> 00:26:25.240 align:start position:0% could it could access or it could um be 00:26:25.240 --> 00:26:28.789 align:start position:0% could it could access or it could um be on<00:26:25.399> the<00:26:25.600> same<00:26:26.480> market<00:26:27.480> and<00:26:27.919> then<00:26:28.440> could<00:26:28.559> be<00:26:28.679> on 00:26:28.789 --> 00:26:28.799 align:start position:0% on the same market and then could be on 00:26:28.799 --> 00:26:32.269 align:start position:0% on the same market and then could be on the<00:26:28.919> other<00:26:29.200> side<00:26:29.720> or<00:26:30.440> on<00:26:30.679> another<00:26:31.279> side<00:26:31.720> a 00:26:32.269 --> 00:26:32.279 align:start position:0% the other side or on another side a 00:26:32.279 --> 00:26:35.590 align:start position:0% the other side or on another side a market<00:26:32.720> that's<00:26:33.159> more<00:26:33.919> spec<00:26:34.480> speculative<00:26:35.320> on 00:26:35.590 --> 00:26:35.600 align:start position:0% market that's more spec speculative on 00:26:35.600 --> 00:26:39.190 align:start position:0% market that's more spec speculative on on<00:26:35.760> on<00:26:36.120> those<00:26:37.120> um<00:26:37.840> and<00:26:38.000> I<00:26:38.120> think<00:26:38.399> those<00:26:38.919> yeah 00:26:39.190 --> 00:26:39.200 align:start position:0% on on those um and I think those yeah 00:26:39.200 --> 00:26:43.750 align:start position:0% on on those um and I think those yeah different<00:26:40.039> um<00:26:40.720> use<00:26:41.279> cases<00:26:42.159> might<00:26:42.480> also<00:26:42.840> help 00:26:43.750 --> 00:26:43.760 align:start position:0% different um use cases might also help 00:26:43.760 --> 00:26:47.430 align:start position:0% different um use cases might also help um<00:26:44.760> to<00:26:45.520> yeah<00:26:45.720> to<00:26:45.919> to<00:26:46.039> get<00:26:46.240> the<00:26:46.559> ecosystem<00:26:47.200> right 00:26:47.430 --> 00:26:47.440 align:start position:0% um to yeah to to get the ecosystem right 00:26:47.440 --> 00:26:49.630 align:start position:0% um to yeah to to get the ecosystem right for<00:26:47.679> a<00:26:47.840> prediction<00:26:48.279> Market<00:26:49.080> because<00:26:49.399> in<00:26:49.520> the 00:26:49.630 --> 00:26:49.640 align:start position:0% for a prediction Market because in the 00:26:49.640 --> 00:26:53.230 align:start position:0% for a prediction Market because in the end<00:26:49.880> it's<00:26:50.080> a<00:26:50.399> it's<00:26:50.520> a<00:26:50.640> zero<00:26:51.000> sum<00:26:51.279> game<00:26:52.120> so<00:26:53.120> in 00:26:53.230 --> 00:26:53.240 align:start position:0% end it's a it's a zero sum game so in 00:26:53.240 --> 00:26:55.950 align:start position:0% end it's a it's a zero sum game so in the<00:26:53.399> end<00:26:53.600> if<00:26:53.799> someone<00:26:54.080> wins<00:26:54.399> money<00:26:55.120> and<00:26:55.799> and 00:26:55.950 --> 00:26:55.960 align:start position:0% the end if someone wins money and and 00:26:55.960 --> 00:26:58.029 align:start position:0% the end if someone wins money and and those<00:26:56.200> who<00:26:56.399> contribute<00:26:56.880> the<00:26:57.039> information 00:26:58.029 --> 00:26:58.039 align:start position:0% those who contribute the information 00:26:58.039 --> 00:27:00.269 align:start position:0% those who contribute the information they<00:26:58.279> they<00:26:58.399> should<00:26:58.640> win<00:26:58.880> money<00:26:59.600> then<00:26:59.880> someone 00:27:00.269 --> 00:27:00.279 align:start position:0% they they should win money then someone 00:27:00.279 --> 00:27:03.750 align:start position:0% they they should win money then someone else<00:27:01.279> on<00:27:01.480> average<00:27:02.159> needs<00:27:02.440> to<00:27:02.559> lose<00:27:02.799> money<00:27:03.559> and 00:27:03.750 --> 00:27:03.760 align:start position:0% else on average needs to lose money and 00:27:03.760 --> 00:27:05.590 align:start position:0% else on average needs to lose money and that<00:27:03.919> could<00:27:04.120> be<00:27:04.279> someone<00:27:04.640> who<00:27:05.120> for<00:27:05.320> example 00:27:05.590 --> 00:27:05.600 align:start position:0% that could be someone who for example 00:27:05.600 --> 00:27:08.029 align:start position:0% that could be someone who for example wants<00:27:05.760> to<00:27:05.880> hatch<00:27:06.200> against<00:27:06.360> the<00:27:06.679> risk<00:27:07.679> right<00:27:07.840> so 00:27:08.029 --> 00:27:08.039 align:start position:0% wants to hatch against the risk right so 00:27:08.039 --> 00:27:10.470 align:start position:0% wants to hatch against the risk right so that's<00:27:08.320> like<00:27:08.480> the<00:27:08.600> famous<00:27:08.919> nor<00:27:09.279> trade<00:27:09.880> uh<00:27:10.320> uh 00:27:10.470 --> 00:27:10.480 align:start position:0% that's like the famous nor trade uh uh 00:27:10.480 --> 00:27:12.470 align:start position:0% that's like the famous nor trade uh uh theor<00:27:10.960> that<00:27:11.080> says<00:27:11.360> that<00:27:11.600> if<00:27:11.840> somebody's 00:27:12.470 --> 00:27:12.480 align:start position:0% theor that says that if somebody's 00:27:12.480 --> 00:27:14.669 align:start position:0% theor that says that if somebody's taking<00:27:12.880> that<00:27:13.080> side<00:27:13.240> of<00:27:13.360> the<00:27:13.520> bat<00:27:14.039> who<00:27:14.240> am<00:27:14.360> I<00:27:14.559> to 00:27:14.669 --> 00:27:14.679 align:start position:0% taking that side of the bat who am I to 00:27:14.679 --> 00:27:16.950 align:start position:0% taking that side of the bat who am I to think<00:27:14.960> that<00:27:15.080> I<00:27:15.200> know<00:27:15.399> more<00:27:15.600> than<00:27:15.799> they<00:27:15.960> do<00:27:16.799> okay 00:27:16.950 --> 00:27:16.960 align:start position:0% think that I know more than they do okay 00:27:16.960 --> 00:27:19.990 align:start position:0% think that I know more than they do okay so<00:27:17.360> again<00:27:18.000> how<00:27:18.760> sometimes<00:27:19.000> they<00:27:19.159> might<00:27:19.520> so<00:27:19.799> how 00:27:19.990 --> 00:27:20.000 align:start position:0% so again how sometimes they might so how 00:27:20.000 --> 00:27:23.310 align:start position:0% so again how sometimes they might so how how<00:27:20.120> do<00:27:20.240> you<00:27:20.360> break<00:27:20.679> that<00:27:21.159> uh<00:27:21.640> uh<00:27:22.000> that<00:27:22.320> problem 00:27:23.310 --> 00:27:23.320 align:start position:0% how do you break that uh uh that problem 00:27:23.320 --> 00:27:25.269 align:start position:0% how do you break that uh uh that problem well<00:27:23.720> I<00:27:23.799> was<00:27:23.919> just<00:27:24.039> going<00:27:24.159> to<00:27:24.320> say<00:27:24.960> like 00:27:25.269 --> 00:27:25.279 align:start position:0% well I was just going to say like 00:27:25.279 --> 00:27:27.750 align:start position:0% well I was just going to say like wholeheartedly<00:27:26.000> agree<00:27:26.320> with<00:27:26.600> the<00:27:26.960> the<00:27:27.520> I<00:27:27.600> mean 00:27:27.750 --> 00:27:27.760 align:start position:0% wholeheartedly agree with the the I mean 00:27:27.760 --> 00:27:29.070 align:start position:0% wholeheartedly agree with the the I mean really<00:27:28.000> what<00:27:28.200> both<00:27:28.360> of<00:27:28.440> you<00:27:28.559> guys<00:27:28.720> have<00:27:28.840> said 00:27:29.070 --> 00:27:29.080 align:start position:0% really what both of you guys have said 00:27:29.080 --> 00:27:31.470 align:start position:0% really what both of you guys have said just<00:27:29.279> that<00:27:29.600> the<00:27:29.799> the<00:27:30.120> user<00:27:30.440> interface<00:27:31.039> is<00:27:31.279> is 00:27:31.470 --> 00:27:31.480 align:start position:0% just that the the user interface is is 00:27:31.480 --> 00:27:34.149 align:start position:0% just that the the user interface is is very<00:27:31.720> important<00:27:32.399> and<00:27:32.600> and<00:27:33.039> especially<00:27:33.399> with 00:27:34.149 --> 00:27:34.159 align:start position:0% very important and and especially with 00:27:34.159 --> 00:27:36.389 align:start position:0% very important and and especially with your<00:27:34.399> point<00:27:34.679> that<00:27:35.240> you<00:27:35.360> know<00:27:35.559> really<00:27:36.000> you 00:27:36.389 --> 00:27:36.399 align:start position:0% your point that you know really you 00:27:36.399 --> 00:27:38.549 align:start position:0% your point that you know really you there<00:27:36.600> there<00:27:36.720> is<00:27:36.919> not<00:27:37.360> necessarily<00:27:37.919> a<00:27:38.120> one 00:27:38.549 --> 00:27:38.559 align:start position:0% there there is not necessarily a one 00:27:38.559 --> 00:27:41.310 align:start position:0% there there is not necessarily a one siiz<00:27:38.960> fits-all<00:27:39.600> solution<00:27:40.120> for<00:27:40.760> for<00:27:41.039> user 00:27:41.310 --> 00:27:41.320 align:start position:0% siiz fits-all solution for for user 00:27:41.320 --> 00:27:43.630 align:start position:0% siiz fits-all solution for for user interfaces<00:27:41.880> in<00:27:42.039> general<00:27:42.399> but<00:27:42.600> for<00:27:43.279> prediction 00:27:43.630 --> 00:27:43.640 align:start position:0% interfaces in general but for prediction 00:27:43.640 --> 00:27:45.710 align:start position:0% interfaces in general but for prediction Market<00:27:43.960> specifically<00:27:44.600> like<00:27:44.919> you<00:27:45.039> can<00:27:45.240> imagine 00:27:45.710 --> 00:27:45.720 align:start position:0% Market specifically like you can imagine 00:27:45.720 --> 00:27:49.190 align:start position:0% Market specifically like you can imagine that<00:27:46.559> um<00:27:47.559> I<00:27:47.600> mean<00:27:48.240> you<00:27:48.360> can<00:27:48.519> break<00:27:48.760> it<00:27:48.919> down 00:27:49.190 --> 00:27:49.200 align:start position:0% that um I mean you can break it down 00:27:49.200 --> 00:27:51.789 align:start position:0% that um I mean you can break it down sort<00:27:49.399> of<00:27:50.039> as<00:27:50.279> granularly<00:27:51.000> as<00:27:51.120> you<00:27:51.279> as<00:27:51.399> you<00:27:51.480> want 00:27:51.789 --> 00:27:51.799 align:start position:0% sort of as granularly as you as you want 00:27:51.799 --> 00:27:53.710 align:start position:0% sort of as granularly as you as you want but<00:27:52.360> the<00:27:52.960> you<00:27:53.080> know<00:27:53.200> it<00:27:53.279> seems<00:27:53.480> like<00:27:53.640> well 00:27:53.710 --> 00:27:53.720 align:start position:0% but the you know it seems like well 00:27:53.720 --> 00:27:56.909 align:start position:0% but the you know it seems like well you'd<00:27:53.960> have<00:27:54.159> like<00:27:54.519> the<00:27:54.720> sort<00:27:55.200> of<00:27:56.200> uh<00:27:56.399> Traders 00:27:56.909 --> 00:27:56.919 align:start position:0% you'd have like the sort of uh Traders 00:27:56.919 --> 00:27:58.549 align:start position:0% you'd have like the sort of uh Traders would<00:27:57.120> want<00:27:57.360> one<00:27:57.559> kind<00:27:57.679> of<00:27:57.799> interface<00:27:58.440> they 00:27:58.549 --> 00:27:58.559 align:start position:0% would want one kind of interface they 00:27:58.559 --> 00:28:00.789 align:start position:0% would want one kind of interface they want<00:27:59.039> really<00:27:59.640> all<00:27:59.799> the<00:27:59.960> details<00:28:00.360> all<00:28:00.440> the<00:28:00.559> data 00:28:00.789 --> 00:28:00.799 align:start position:0% want really all the details all the data 00:28:00.799 --> 00:28:02.750 align:start position:0% want really all the details all the data presented<00:28:01.120> to<00:28:01.320> them<00:28:01.679> you<00:28:01.840> if<00:28:01.960> you<00:28:02.039> want<00:28:02.480> maybe 00:28:02.750 --> 00:28:02.760 align:start position:0% presented to them you if you want maybe 00:28:02.760 --> 00:28:04.509 align:start position:0% presented to them you if you want maybe people<00:28:03.159> who<00:28:03.320> are<00:28:03.799> it<00:28:03.919> seems<00:28:04.120> like<00:28:04.240> people<00:28:04.399> who 00:28:04.509 --> 00:28:04.519 align:start position:0% people who are it seems like people who 00:28:04.519 --> 00:28:07.389 align:start position:0% people who are it seems like people who are<00:28:04.640> betting<00:28:05.039> on<00:28:05.480> say<00:28:06.120> sports<00:28:06.640> would<00:28:07.159> would 00:28:07.389 --> 00:28:07.399 align:start position:0% are betting on say sports would would 00:28:07.399 --> 00:28:09.110 align:start position:0% are betting on say sports would would expect<00:28:07.679> a<00:28:07.799> different<00:28:08.039> interface<00:28:08.720> right<00:28:08.919> they 00:28:09.110 --> 00:28:09.120 align:start position:0% expect a different interface right they 00:28:09.120 --> 00:28:11.830 align:start position:0% expect a different interface right they they<00:28:09.600> they'd<00:28:09.880> expect<00:28:10.240> like<00:28:10.600> odds<00:28:11.039> instead<00:28:11.279> of 00:28:11.830 --> 00:28:11.840 align:start position:0% they they'd expect like odds instead of 00:28:11.840 --> 00:28:15.789 align:start position:0% they they'd expect like odds instead of probabilities<00:28:12.840> um<00:28:13.880> and<00:28:14.880> well<00:28:15.080> and<00:28:15.559> maybe<00:28:15.720> the 00:28:15.789 --> 00:28:15.799 align:start position:0% probabilities um and well and maybe the 00:28:15.799 --> 00:28:17.630 align:start position:0% probabilities um and well and maybe the most<00:28:15.960> important<00:28:16.240> one<00:28:16.360> is<00:28:16.559> just<00:28:17.240> sort<00:28:17.399> of<00:28:17.519> a 00:28:17.630 --> 00:28:17.640 align:start position:0% most important one is just sort of a 00:28:17.640 --> 00:28:20.430 align:start position:0% most important one is just sort of a newbie<00:28:18.279> interface<00:28:18.960> one<00:28:19.200> that<00:28:20.080> doesn't 00:28:20.430 --> 00:28:20.440 align:start position:0% newbie interface one that doesn't 00:28:20.440 --> 00:28:21.950 align:start position:0% newbie interface one that doesn't require<00:28:20.760> you<00:28:20.880> to<00:28:21.039> sift<00:28:21.360> through<00:28:21.480> mountains<00:28:21.799> of 00:28:21.950 --> 00:28:21.960 align:start position:0% require you to sift through mountains of 00:28:21.960 --> 00:28:24.430 align:start position:0% require you to sift through mountains of data<00:28:22.360> or<00:28:22.840> understand<00:28:23.399> how<00:28:23.559> odds<00:28:23.880> work<00:28:24.120> or 00:28:24.430 --> 00:28:24.440 align:start position:0% data or understand how odds work or 00:28:24.440 --> 00:28:27.110 align:start position:0% data or understand how odds work or really<00:28:25.440> anything<00:28:25.799> like<00:28:26.000> that<00:28:26.320> you<00:28:26.440> know<00:28:26.600> so 00:28:27.110 --> 00:28:27.120 align:start position:0% really anything like that you know so 00:28:27.120 --> 00:28:28.789 align:start position:0% really anything like that you know so just<00:28:27.279> an<00:28:27.440> app<00:28:27.600> where<00:28:27.720> you<00:28:27.799> can<00:28:27.919> click<00:28:28.120> like<00:28:28.320> on 00:28:28.789 --> 00:28:28.799 align:start position:0% just an app where you can click like on 00:28:28.799 --> 00:28:31.149 align:start position:0% just an app where you can click like on you<00:28:28.919> know<00:28:29.200> where<00:28:29.559> you<00:28:29.679> drive<00:28:30.039> by<00:28:30.360> the<00:28:30.519> Walmart 00:28:31.149 --> 00:28:31.159 align:start position:0% you know where you drive by the Walmart 00:28:31.159 --> 00:28:33.470 align:start position:0% you know where you drive by the Walmart and<00:28:31.679> is<00:28:31.840> this<00:28:32.039> going<00:28:32.399> well<00:28:32.679> yes<00:28:32.840> or<00:28:33.000> no<00:28:33.360> that 00:28:33.470 --> 00:28:33.480 align:start position:0% and is this going well yes or no that 00:28:33.480 --> 00:28:35.909 align:start position:0% and is this going well yes or no that sort<00:28:33.640> of<00:28:33.799> thing<00:28:34.640> okay<00:28:34.840> so<00:28:35.320> uh<00:28:35.519> different 00:28:35.909 --> 00:28:35.919 align:start position:0% sort of thing okay so uh different 00:28:35.919 --> 00:28:38.830 align:start position:0% sort of thing okay so uh different question<00:28:36.440> so<00:28:37.240> imagine<00:28:37.640> a<00:28:37.880> situation<00:28:38.399> not<00:28:38.600> too 00:28:38.830 --> 00:28:38.840 align:start position:0% question so imagine a situation not too 00:28:38.840 --> 00:28:42.110 align:start position:0% question so imagine a situation not too far<00:28:39.159> I<00:28:39.279> don't<00:28:39.519> think<00:28:40.279> where<00:28:40.720> a<00:28:41.039> very<00:28:41.320> Advanced 00:28:42.110 --> 00:28:42.120 align:start position:0% far I don't think where a very Advanced 00:28:42.120 --> 00:28:44.630 align:start position:0% far I don't think where a very Advanced artificial<00:28:42.880> intelligence<00:28:43.880> gets<00:28:44.200> access<00:28:44.519> to 00:28:44.630 --> 00:28:44.640 align:start position:0% artificial intelligence gets access to 00:28:44.640 --> 00:28:47.389 align:start position:0% artificial intelligence gets access to one<00:28:44.760> of<00:28:44.919> these<00:28:45.080> markets<00:28:45.600> and<00:28:46.399> systematically 00:28:47.389 --> 00:28:47.399 align:start position:0% one of these markets and systematically 00:28:47.399 --> 00:28:50.549 align:start position:0% one of these markets and systematically uh<00:28:47.600> ends<00:28:47.880> up<00:28:48.440> uh<00:28:48.760> uh<00:28:48.919> outbidding<00:28:49.519> everyone<00:28:50.039> so 00:28:50.549 --> 00:28:50.559 align:start position:0% uh ends up uh uh outbidding everyone so 00:28:50.559 --> 00:28:52.430 align:start position:0% uh ends up uh uh outbidding everyone so what<00:28:50.720> would<00:28:51.000> happen<00:28:51.240> to<00:28:51.440> a<00:28:51.600> market<00:28:51.880> in<00:28:52.200> those 00:28:52.430 --> 00:28:52.440 align:start position:0% what would happen to a market in those 00:28:52.440 --> 00:28:54.430 align:start position:0% what would happen to a market in those in<00:28:52.600> those 00:28:54.430 --> 00:28:54.440 align:start position:0% in those 00:28:54.440 --> 00:28:57.470 align:start position:0% in those circumstances<00:28:55.480> that's<00:28:56.480> it<00:28:56.679> sounds<00:28:57.159> like<00:28:57.399> you 00:28:57.470 --> 00:28:57.480 align:start position:0% circumstances that's it sounds like you 00:28:57.480 --> 00:28:59.509 align:start position:0% circumstances that's it sounds like you know<00:28:57.640> at<00:28:57.760> the<00:28:57.840> very<00:28:58.320> start<00:28:58.600> people<00:28:58.799> would<00:28:59.039> lose 00:28:59.509 --> 00:28:59.519 align:start position:0% know at the very start people would lose 00:28:59.519 --> 00:29:01.190 align:start position:0% know at the very start people would lose and<00:28:59.679> then<00:28:59.799> in<00:28:59.919> the<00:29:00.080> second<00:29:00.440> phase<00:29:00.880> people 00:29:01.190 --> 00:29:01.200 align:start position:0% and then in the second phase people 00:29:01.200 --> 00:29:04.389 align:start position:0% and then in the second phase people would<00:29:01.760> kind<00:29:01.880> of<00:29:02.120> realize<00:29:02.760> that<00:29:03.000> the<00:29:03.679> AI<00:29:04.080> is 00:29:04.389 --> 00:29:04.399 align:start position:0% would kind of realize that the AI is 00:29:04.399 --> 00:29:06.149 align:start position:0% would kind of realize that the AI is probably<00:29:04.919> is<00:29:05.080> smarter<00:29:05.519> than<00:29:05.720> them<00:29:05.880> and<00:29:05.960> so 00:29:06.149 --> 00:29:06.159 align:start position:0% probably is smarter than them and so 00:29:06.159 --> 00:29:07.789 align:start position:0% probably is smarter than them and so there's<00:29:06.360> no<00:29:06.559> point<00:29:06.799> in<00:29:06.960> disagreeing<00:29:07.519> with<00:29:07.640> any 00:29:07.789 --> 00:29:07.799 align:start position:0% there's no point in disagreeing with any 00:29:07.799 --> 00:29:09.830 align:start position:0% there's no point in disagreeing with any of<00:29:07.919> the<00:29:08.240> probabilities<00:29:09.240> and<00:29:09.399> then<00:29:09.559> of<00:29:09.679> course 00:29:09.830 --> 00:29:09.840 align:start position:0% of the probabilities and then of course 00:29:09.840 --> 00:29:11.590 align:start position:0% of the probabilities and then of course the<00:29:09.960> third<00:29:10.200> phase<00:29:10.399> would<00:29:10.519> be<00:29:10.640> that<00:29:10.799> the<00:29:11.279> AI 00:29:11.590 --> 00:29:11.600 align:start position:0% the third phase would be that the AI 00:29:11.600 --> 00:29:13.269 align:start position:0% the third phase would be that the AI realizes<00:29:12.240> that<00:29:12.440> aside<00:29:12.679> from<00:29:12.840> this<00:29:13.000> crazy 00:29:13.269 --> 00:29:13.279 align:start position:0% realizes that aside from this crazy 00:29:13.279 --> 00:29:14.630 align:start position:0% realizes that aside from this crazy ethereum<00:29:13.799> thing<00:29:13.960> there's<00:29:14.159> this<00:29:14.320> thing<00:29:14.480> called 00:29:14.630 --> 00:29:14.640 align:start position:0% ethereum thing there's this thing called 00:29:14.640 --> 00:29:16.029 align:start position:0% ethereum thing there's this thing called Wall<00:29:14.880> Street<00:29:15.159> where<00:29:15.320> the<00:29:15.440> AI<00:29:15.760> can<00:29:15.880> make 00:29:16.029 --> 00:29:16.039 align:start position:0% Wall Street where the AI can make 00:29:16.039 --> 00:29:19.710 align:start position:0% Wall Street where the AI can make millions<00:29:16.360> of<00:29:16.519> times<00:29:16.760> more 00:29:19.710 --> 00:29:19.720 align:start position:0% 00:29:19.720 --> 00:29:22.750 align:start position:0% money<00:29:20.720> and<00:29:20.880> so<00:29:21.159> the<00:29:21.399> the<00:29:21.600> the<00:29:21.720> AI<00:29:22.159> would<00:29:22.360> vacate 00:29:22.750 --> 00:29:22.760 align:start position:0% money and so the the the AI would vacate 00:29:22.760 --> 00:29:25.830 align:start position:0% money and so the the the AI would vacate the<00:29:22.960> market<00:29:23.799> and<00:29:23.960> move<00:29:24.200> to<00:29:24.720> better<00:29:25.080> things<00:29:25.679> and 00:29:25.830 --> 00:29:25.840 align:start position:0% the market and move to better things and 00:29:25.840 --> 00:29:28.630 align:start position:0% the market and move to better things and leave<00:29:26.080> the<00:29:26.279> humans<00:29:26.960> uh<00:29:27.159> pick<00:29:27.360> up<00:29:27.480> the<00:29:27.600> scraps 00:29:28.630 --> 00:29:28.640 align:start position:0% leave the humans uh pick up the scraps 00:29:28.640 --> 00:29:30.269 align:start position:0% leave the humans uh pick up the scraps that<00:29:28.720> would<00:29:28.840> be<00:29:29.080> nice<00:29:29.519> but<00:29:29.640> in<00:29:29.720> the<00:29:29.840> meantime 00:29:30.269 --> 00:29:30.279 align:start position:0% that would be nice but in the meantime 00:29:30.279 --> 00:29:32.909 align:start position:0% that would be nice but in the meantime you'd<00:29:30.519> have<00:29:30.760> like<00:29:31.360> perfectly<00:29:32.240> efficient 00:29:32.909 --> 00:29:32.919 align:start position:0% you'd have like perfectly efficient 00:29:32.919 --> 00:29:34.710 align:start position:0% you'd have like perfectly efficient prediction<00:29:33.320> markets<00:29:33.720> that<00:29:33.960> always<00:29:34.320> told<00:29:34.600> you 00:29:34.710 --> 00:29:34.720 align:start position:0% prediction markets that always told you 00:29:34.720 --> 00:29:38.029 align:start position:0% prediction markets that always told you the<00:29:34.880> right 00:29:38.029 --> 00:29:38.039 align:start position:0% 00:29:38.039 --> 00:29:40.990 align:start position:0% answer<00:29:39.039> a<00:29:39.240> good<00:29:39.399> thing<00:29:39.880> oh<00:29:40.039> I'm<00:29:40.240> up<00:29:40.559> okay<00:29:40.720> so 00:29:40.990 --> 00:29:41.000 align:start position:0% answer a good thing oh I'm up okay so 00:29:41.000 --> 00:29:43.149 align:start position:0% answer a good thing oh I'm up okay so thank<00:29:41.159> you<00:29:41.320> all<00:29:41.559> for<00:29:42.120> uh<00:29:42.240> being<00:29:42.440> on<00:29:42.600> the<00:29:42.760> panel 00:29:43.149 --> 00:29:43.159 align:start position:0% thank you all for uh being on the panel 00:29:43.159 --> 00:29:45.630 align:start position:0% thank you all for uh being on the panel and<00:29:43.600> I<00:29:43.679> HED<00:29:44.320> everybody<00:29:44.679> else<00:29:44.880> had<00:29:45.080> fun<00:29:45.480> thank 00:29:45.630 --> 00:29:45.640 align:start position:0% and I HED everybody else had fun thank 00:29:45.640 --> 00:29:52.460 align:start position:0% and I HED everybody else had fun thank you<00:29:45.960> absolutely 00:29:52.460 --> 00:29:52.470 align:start position:0% 00:29:52.470 --> 00:29:56.359 align:start position:0% [Music]